Pancakes In the Age of Enlightenment- The Falcon Has Spoken
I remember hearing about a million times in some shitty song that “every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end”. With that in mind, after there were a lot of ends to head coaching tenures in the past few weeks, this week marked a lot of beginnings.
– The Saints named Cowboys assistant head coach/passing game coordinator Sean Payton their new head coach. Payton is credited with being the architect of a Cowboys air attack that flourished under the leadership of veterans Drew Bledsoe, Terry Glenn, and Keyshawn Johnson this season. Payton was also offensive coordinator for the Giants last Super Bowl team in 2000.
– The Lions have a new head coach! It is former Tampa defensive line coach Rod Marinelli. Marinelli is 56 years old. He is believed to have the most similar last name to his predecessor in NFL head coaching history. Lions fans reacted to the news by tossing Molotov Cocktails towards Matt Millen’s office window.
– Scott Linehan, who had a lot of success both in Minnesota, and last season with the Dolphins as their offensive coordinator, will take the reins in St. Louis next season. Most of the candidates the Rams interviewed were defensive guys, making the selection of Linehan a bit of an interesting one. The Dolphins will interview Fort Lauderdale native and former Bills head coach Mike Mullarkey to fill Linehan’s spot.
– The Jets’ new coach is former New England defensive coordinator Eric Mangini. Mangini is 35 years old, and was only the Patriots defensive coordinator for one season. Under his tutelage, the two time defending World Champion Patriots ranked 31st in the NFL in pass defense. Pretty awesome.
So, that’s 4 more head coaching vacancies filled. That leaves the following teams still looking:
– After Mike Mullarkey surprisingly abdicated his head coaching job with the Bills, new head of football operations Marv Levy has been interviewing replacements. Among them is Dom Capers, who most recently was the Texans head coach, and also had a long stint as the Panthers head man. Levy is also said to be considering former Bears coach and Lions interim head coach Dick Jauron.
– It turns out nobody really wants to be the Raiders’ head coach. The leading candidate, Al Saunders, stiffed Al Davis to become the offensive coordinator in Washington. Another candidate, University of Louisville coach Bobby Petrino, has said thanks but no thanks. The only guy they’ve interviewed who is still a candidate is Chargers wide receivers coach James Lofton.
But there’s more than just head coaching hijinks going on in the NFL right now. Here’s some more news from around the league:
– Somebody had to take the fall for the Giants’ 27th ranked pass defense, and it ended up being secondary coach Ron Milus. Giants’ head coach Tom Coughlin dismissed him this week, and quickly filled the vacancy by hiring Peter Giunta, who has been KC’s secondary coach for the last 5 seasons. Kansas City, by the way, ranked 30th in pass defense this year.
– Now that the 2005 season has officially ended for the Redskins, work begins on trimming the team’s bloated payroll. The Redskins figure to be about $15 million over the salary cap and will have to rework the contracts of many of their key veterans, and won’t be able to be a player in this year’s free agent market. They are able to spend as much as they want on coaches though, and they pay their top assistants like head coaches. This explains Al Saunders leaving the same job with the Chiefs to become the Redskins new offensive coordinator.
– The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that new Vikings coach and former Philly offensive coordinator Brad Childress wanted to bring Eagles linebackers coach Steve Spagnuolo with him to Minnesota to be his defensive coordinator, but the Eagles denied permission. It’s kind of seen as a dick move in the NFL to deny someone a chance at a promotion, but hey, this is the Eagles and they don’t exactly have a deft touch with delicate situations now do they?
– Daunte Culpepper’s agent is already making noise about re-negotiating his contract for next season. Given how well the team played under Brad Johnson, how poorly they played under Culpepper, and Culpepper’s involvement in the Sex Boat scandal, I have to say Culpepper’s got about as much chance of suiting up for the Vikings next year as I do. He will likely be traded. Baltimore and Oakland are likely suitors.
– Now that the Packers have a head coach in Mike McCarthy, the next position they are looking at filling is defensive coordinator, which was vacated by the disgruntled Jim Bates. Rumored candidates are defensive line coach Bob Sanders, Bills defensive coordinator Jerry Gray, Jets defensive coordinator Donnie Henderson, and possibly former Bears head coach and Lions defensive coordinator Dick Jauron. Of these candidates, Sanders is said to be the front-runner.
– After both he and his team had a late-season meltdown, people are starting to talk about Jim Mora as a coach who may be in trouble next season. Evidence of that could be that the Falcons are considering two former head coaches, Mike Tice and Mike Mullarkey, for assistant coaching jobs, and they would do nicely as head coaches in waiting.
– With last year’s offensive coordinator, Mike McCarthy, gone to take over the Green Bay head coaching job, the Niners needed a replacement. They found one in recently ousted Oakland head coach Norv Turner. Turner made his name in the NFL as the coordinator for the Cowboys in the early 90s, when the Triplets of Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, and Michael Irvin tore through the league. He’s had 2 head coaching stints, where his teams’ performances ranged from mediocre to bad, but as an offensive coordinator there are few more respected.
– There’s a lot of weirdness going on with the Jets right now. New head coach Eric Mangini fired defensive coordinator Donnie Henderson, but retained offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger. The only problem is Heimerdinger has no desire to be the Jets’ offensive coordinator next year, and has asked to be released from his contract, which as of this writing, the Jets seem to be unwilling to do.
So, in actuality, the Jets’ offensive coordinator is being forced to coach them against his will. Sounds like a winning formula to me!
– As you probably know by now, Bengals QB Carson Palmer’s knee injury is very serious and potentially career ending. They will have no choice but to re-sign free agent backup Jon Kitna or bring in someone else who can be their starter next year.
– So will it be Reggie Bush or Vince Young heading to Houston as the top pick in the 06 draft? The Texans aren’t saying. Keep in mind that Young and current Texans QB David Carr aren’t mutually exclusive. The Texans could do something like extend Carr through the next 3 seasons, and groom Young, who may be a bit raw at this point, to take over after that deal expires. I’m not saying that’s the right thing to do, but it could happen.
– The Chargers’ lease at Qualcomm Stadium expires after the 2008 season, and they’ve said that they’re not going to ask San Diego voters to approve a new stadium. So that means they are may be done in San Diego proper after 2008. The city of Chula Vista, just south of San Diego, is seen as a potential suitor that could keep the Chargers being the “San Diego” Chargers. If not, the usual suspects of LA and San Antonio would be ready to swoop in and make an offer.
– Fantasy players take note, new Chief of Chiefs Herm Edwards has already told Larry Johnson that he, not Priest Holmes, will be KC’s starting running back next year.
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (13-5)
AT
DENVER BRONCOS (14-3)
Sunday, 3 PM Eastern, CBS (Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Bonnie Bernstein)
THE MATCHUP
If you think the NFL is a player’s league, not a coaches league, consider the AFC Championship matchup. The two coaches matching wits in this one, Mike Shanahan and Bill Cowher, have each been with their respective teams for over a decade, and both will almost certainly be headed to the Hall of Fame when their careers have finished.
For Shanahan, this is the closest he has come to taking the Broncos to the Super Bowl since John Elway threw his last pass, in the Broncos victory over the Falcons in Super Bowl XXXIV (1999). He has gotten this far with a team that has probably played the most consistently excellent football of any team in the NFL this season. They’ve done it with a simple formula: Run the ball effectively, and keep the opposition from doing the same. The Broncos ranked 2nd in the NFL in rushing offense this year, and 2nd in the NFL in rushing defense. They also have a solid quarterback in Jake Plummer, who has finally augmented his ability to make game winning plays by eliminating his propensity for also making game losing plays.
In week 14 of this season, the Steelers looked like a team that was headed for an early vacation. They had just been swept by division rival Cincinnati, and at 7-5 were on the outside looking in on the AFC Playoff race. Since then though, they have caught fire. They reeled off a 3 game winning streak during which they surrendered only 12 points, clinched a playoff berth on the last day of the season with a win over Detroit, and have gone on the road to win 2 playoff games, including one over the overwhelming Super Bowl favorite Indianapolis Colts.
Cowher has only been to one Super Bowl, way back in 1996. But he’s never had a quarterback that has the ability and the winning aura of Ben Roethlisberger. Can this second year superstar lead the Steelers to what only a month ago seemed like an impossible Super Bowl appearance?
RUNNING GAME
After shocking the Colts by getting out to a 21-3 lead in last week’s playoff game, the Steelers came within a missed field goal of blowing that lead and going to overtime. The main reason for that was that they could not run the ball effectively to eat up the clock. The Steelers averaged only 2.7 yards on 42 carries. Their feature back, Willie Parker, has carried 33 times for 97 yards in these playoffs, an average of under 3 yards a carry.
Denver had similar problems in their win over New England. They averaged an even 3 yards a carry. Luckily for them though, the Patriots just couldn’t stop turning the ball over. Their duo of Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell are going to face another stiff test this week. The Steelers allowed only 3.4 yards per carry during the regular season, best in the league. They also rendered Edgerrin James a non-factor in the win over the Colts.
Both of these teams make their living running the ball, and stopping the run. In the playoffs, they have both stopped the run pretty well, but haven’t been able to get their running games untracked. These teams are dead even in this area.
ADVANTAGE- EVEN
PASSING GAME
In another stark similarity between these two teams, they both use their passing game with great efficiency, thanks to the strength of their running games.
However, if both teams have problems running the ball, which I mentioned earlier they might, they will have to rely heavier on the pass to move the ball.
This is where Champ Bailey comes in. He’s probably the best corner in the NFL, and because of him, the portion of the field that the Steelers have to work with in their passing game is going to be much smaller than what Jake Plummer and the Broncos will have to work with .
The Steelers beat Peyton Manning last week by blitzing him and taking advantage of his lack of mobility. They can’t do that against Jake Plummer, because Plummer has the mobility to get away from the pass rush and then make something happen with the spots on the field that have been vacated by blitzers. Plummer also has the added advantage of having faced a 3-4 defense (which the Steelers also use) in last week’s win over New England.
ADVANTAGE- BRONCOS
VARIOUS AND SUNDRY
The Broncos haven’t lost at home this year, and in their history are 12-2 in playoff games at Mile High. The Steelers have already won 2 road games in this year’s playoffs, but going into Denver and winning will be the most difficult test yet.
There’s also the fact that the AFC Championship game has more often than not been the ceiling for Bill Cowher’s Steeler teams. They are 1-4 in the conference championship game under Cowher. Shanahan, meanwhile, has won the last 2 AFC Championship games he’s coached in.
ADVANTAGE- BRONCOS
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
The Steelers have had a great run the past two months. But they haven’t faced anything like what they are going to face when they go to Denver. So far in these playoffs, they’ve beaten a Bengals team that was missing one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and a Colts team that had its head up its ass for the better part of the last 45 days prior to that game.
The Broncos don’t have any of those issues. They’ve been the most consistent team in the league this year, and they are a great illustration that the NFL season really is a marathon and not a sprint. You would have been hard pressed to find anyone to predict this before the season started, but the Denver Broncos are going to the Super Bowl.
BRONCOS 24, STEELERS 16
Can the Broncos Return to Past Glory?
CAROLINA PANTHERS (13-5)
AT
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (14-3)
6:45 PM Eastern, FOX (Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver)
THE MATCHUP
While the Broncos and Steelers have numerous Super Bowl titles between them, the NFC Championship game features two teams that weren’t even in existence when the famous Steel Curtain teams of the 70s were winning their first 2 of 4 Super Bowl titles.
The Seahawks and Panthers may not be steeped in tradition, but they’ve fought hard to get within one game of the Super Bowl, and they have the injuries to prove it. The Panthers are down to their third string running back, Nick Goings, after Deshaun Foster suffered a broken ankle in last week’s win over the Bears. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are banged up at just about every offensive skill position. NFL MVP Shaun Alexander left last week’s game with a concussion, although he will play this week. Both of Seattle’s starting wide receivers, Darrell Jackson and Bobby Engram, are listed as questionable for this game.
Carolina’s had to go into Giants Stadium and Soldier Field to get to this game. The Seahawks had better be ready. They’ve run up an impressive 14-3 record this year, but are only 2-2 against playoff teams, not counting a late season game against Indianapolis’ reserves.
RUNNING GAME
If Shaun Alexander is feeling as good as he says he is, then the Seahawks have this hands down. Even without Alexander, the Seahawks still ran for a healthy 119 yards against a pretty good Redskins defense last week.
The Panthers will be missing Deshaun Foster for the remainder of their playoff run, but Nick Goings will prevent there from being much of a drop off. He is fresh, runs hard, and is a receiving threat out of the backfield. There’s nothing wrong with Nick Goings, but he is not Shaun Alexander.
ADVANTAGE- SEAHAWKS
PASSING GAME
This all depends on whether the Seahawks get to play with 11 men, or if they will play with 8 men, as the Bears apparently did last week.
What Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith did to the Bears last week, while very, very impressive, was more the fault of the Bears WTF coverage schemes than anything. There is no way, absolutely no way, that Smith will have anything less than 2 men covering him at all times this Sunday. Smith was held to less than 100 yards receiving in 4 out of his last 5 regular season games this year, so it’s not like it’s impossible to hold him in check.
The Seahawks had a pretty similar assignment last week when they faced Santana Moss, who probably is as close a replica to Smith as you can find. Moss had a good game with 7 catches for 103 yards, but he didn’t do enough to beat the Seahawks on his own, which is what Smith did to the Bears last week.
Seattle has two wide receivers who are questionable for this game. They obviously want to have Darrell Jackson healthy, as he stepped up in a big way with 143 yards last week. If he can’t go, and if Engram can’t go, they are going to have to get big games out of Joe Jurevicius and their tight end, Jerramy Stevens. They’ll also have to lean really heavily on Alexander.
Until I hear otherwise, I have to work under the assumption that Jackson and Engram will play. That means that the Seahawks have more options, and a better chance of moving the ball through the air.
ADVANTAGE- SEAHAWKS
VARIOUS AND SUNDRY
It was only two years ago that the Panthers went on the road for the NFC Championship game, and dominated Andy Reid’s Eagles in a 14-3 victory. Reid was an assistant coach under Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren in Green Bay at one time, which means they have pretty similar offensive philosophies.
A lot of hoopla was given in the past few weeks to how good the New England Patriots are in the postseason. Well, the Carolina Panthers have won 5 NFC playoff games in a row, four of which have been on the road. In my country, that’s pretty damn impressive.
Every intangible boogeyman you can think of still resides in the lockers of the Seahawks, while the Panthers have none of them, because they just went to the Super Bowl 24 months ago.
ADVANTAGE- PANTHERS
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
There are a lot of similarities between the Panthers and the Washington Redskins. They’re both teams that rely heavily on the connection between their quarterback and one particular receiver to have any kind of offensive success. The Redskins even had a high quality running back to fall back on in Clinton Portis, while the Panthers have a big question mark in Nick Goings.
The Seahawks told me everything I need to know about this game by what they did in disposing of the Redskins last week. They won that game by 10, and they’ll win this game by 10.
SEAHAWKS 27, PANTHERS 17
Jim Zorn Is Proud
So, by my watch, we’re going to have a Super Bowl of Seattle vs. Denver, taking place in Detroit. Not exactly a dream matchup for the NFL, but hey, it’s the Super Bowl. We’ll all eat a lot, drink a lot, and see some new commercials, everybody wins.
See ya back on Monday to break down what goes down this weekend. Enjoy the Conference Championship games!
