Last week, I opened up my pre-show discussion of SURVIVOR: PANAMA—EXILE ISLAND by talking about some of the new twists of the game, namely the Exile Island and how that might affect strategy, especially since there is a hidden Immunity Idol hidden somewhere on the island.
This slipped my mind last week, but I also wanted to mention that apparently, this hidden Immunity has another twist to it than the one used in Guatemala. According to TV Guide, not only can the Survivor who finds the Idol use it to keep themselves safe at Tribal Council, they can also do it after the vote has been tallied. Meaning, they don’t need to reveal they have it until it’s revealed they’ve been voted off, then they can pull it out and use it to save themselves, and the person with the second number of votes goes home.
This will DEFINITELY play into the strategy of the game. As I alluded to last week, eventually, an intelligent player who may feel that they are in danger may WANT to be sent to Exile Island so they can tear it apart looking for that Idol.
So, now that that little piece of business is out of the way, it’s time to get to work talking about the most important thing of any season of Survivor: the cast. This season, they go back to 16, and this time I think it’s for real. There will be no former Survivors walking down to join the tribes, because the 16 people themselves are also playing into yet ANOTHER wrinkle of this season.
They are going to be starting off as four tribes of four. But, that’s not all, ladies and gentlemen! There’s more! They are making the divisions based along age and gender lines, so we have Older Men, Older Women, Younger Men, and Younger Women.
So, as always, I am going to make my predictions for this season based on my initial impressions of the 16 new hopefuls, using the CBS website biographies as a guide.
As a disclaimer for those of you who are new to my column: my pre-show predictions should not be taken as the Gospel truth for the season. While I feel after so long with the show (I’ve been writing since Amazon, and watching since Africa, but have since seen Borneo and Australia) that I have a pretty good handle on the strategy of the game, although I’m certainly wrong. However, when it comes to analyzing the cast before the show starts, I can actually be quite horrible.
So why do I do it? For fun. Obviously, it’s hard to see how somebody will do just by looking at a picture and reading a short autobiography. The pressures of the game and island environment can do funny things to even the strongest; it’s just fun to look back at the end of the season and see how I did it, even when I do poorly. The most fun seasons are the unpredictable ones.
I’m also going to do something a little different this time. After I look at each group of four, I’m going to pick who I think is the strongest and who I think is the weakest, so by the end, I’ll have a list of four potential first boots and a list of four potential winners. From there, I will choose one first boot and one winner, but I allow myself some insurance: at the end of the season, we’ll see if the winner was on the initial list of four.
So, without further ado, let’s take a look at the reality granddaddy’s twelfth bunch of millionaire-hopefuls. I’m going to divide them along the gender/age lines they will be divided into on tonight’s premiere episode.
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YOUNGER WOMEN
We look like we have a wily bunch of young girls this time around. One of them is even a fire dancer! Count on Survivor to come up with the most unique, and yet the most ordinary at the same time, if that makes sense.
COURTNEY MARIT— Here’s our fire dancer. Her biography lists her officially as a “performance artist,” but I definitely prefer the “fire dancer.” In any event, she looks like a great fit for this game. Her bio lists some of her many adventures: “climbing mountain peaks in the Cordilla Blanca of Peru, skiing the mountains of Alaska, running a marathon in Honolulu, performing throughout Europe, living in caves in India, surfing in Costa Rica, hitchhiking through Mexico and walking the deserts of Chile.” It also lists her many careers: “She also worked as a massage therapist, ski instructor, snow maker, farmer, elder caregiver, trailblazer, biking/hiking guide and importer.” Guess what, people: she’s only 31 years old. I think we’re going to be seeing a lot of Courtney this season.
DANIELLE DILORENZO— A young athlete, 24 years old. While last season’s winner, Danni, was more into football, Danielle’s thing seems to be soccer. Her bio shows that at 16 she was chosen to represent the United States in soccer throughout the world. So, will she repeat the success of last’s season’s namesake? Or will she falter? Only time will tell.
MISTY GILES— From what I observe of Misty, she could be dangerous. Here’s why I say that: her bio says that won a Miss Texas USA Beauty Pageant, and yet she describes herself as a “tomboy in high heels.” At 24 years old, the perfect combination of beauty and competition could serve her well, especially when she gets the chance to compete with the men.
SALLY SCHUMANN— At 27 years old, we have another outdoors person to round out this tribe. Sally also apparently has a passion for photography. She’s also a social worker, so she could prove to have a good combination of people skills and athleticism to keep her around for a little while.
Normally, I’d discount the abilities of a tribe consisting primarily of young women, but this group seems to be very well rounded. However, if I had to pick a first boot from this tribe, I’d pick Danielle, and only because she doesn’t seem to have anything that the other three don’t. The strongest from this tribe is Courtney.
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YOUNGER MEN
The young guys of any season of Survivor always scare me, especially when they are together, because historically, they don’t always do well. Again, I repeat: especially when they are together. Will this tribe be Testosterone City, thus resulting in their demise? Or, will they pull together, learn from history, and succeed? Let’s take a look at who we have from this group.
ARAS BASKAUSKAS— At 24 years old, he’s a very experienced yoga instructor. He’s young and fit, and since he’s into yoga, it also means that he is very good at meditating, which could come in handy with the stress of island life and help him keep his cool.
AUSTIN CARTY— For some reason, I don’t have high expectations for this 24 year old author. I always love a writer (imagine that, I’m only an English Education major and write a Survivor column, why on Earth would I be interested in writing?) but Austin strikes me as the young, athletic guy who gets stomped on eventually. He reminds me of Guatemala’s Blake, or Thailand’s Jed and Robb. Maybe he will prove me wrong, but I do not see him making merge.
BOBBY MASON— Out of the entire biography, one sentence leaps out at me, and concerns me. This 32 year old (the oldest member of this tribe) “describes himself as dominant, loyal, malleable and stubborn.” All four are major Survivor uh-oh’s, with the major potential for big disaster. It doesn’t take a large stretch of imagination to envision Bobby taking charge of the younger men, dominating them way too much, and being voted out. And if it doesn’t happen at the very beginning, it will happen eventually, because as we all know by now, in Survivor, your true personality comes out.
NICK STANBURY— “He wants to be on SURVIVOR so he can travel, learn about himself in a difficult situation and meet smart, beautiful women.” This 25 year old waiter-bachelor-lawyer-hopeful could be cruisin’ for a bruisin’ if he doesn’t have a little more incentive than that. No question he’s the type of guy who will be snowed by the younger, prettier women, and it will distract him from what his real goal should be. I don’t see him lasting that long.
Okay, this group does not strike me as being as solid as the younger women’s tribe does. I don’t get a good vibe from Austin, Nick is going to be too busy chasing the girls, and Bobby’s going to be the boss. Bobby is the first one out, hands down, and Aras is the strongest of the bunch, with his combination of athleticism and ability to focus, concentrate, and control yourself the way yoga teaches you to.
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OLDER WOMEN
CIRIE FIELDS— Right off the bat, I like Cirie. She seems like a vibrant, bubbly personality who people are going to like. At 35, she is also a registered nurse, so those skills could prove useful to the tribe, and her bio also says that she can cook. A great personality with skills: I think Cirie looks good.
MELINDA HYDER— Courtney is the oldest of the younger women’s tribe at 31. Melinda is 32….one year is the difference between which tribe she landed on. Normally, I wouldn’t make the observation, but I think it’s important, because with this group, I fear Melinda may be a little out of her element. She strikes me as the person who would fit in more with the younger crowd. She also seems to have a bubbly personality, and may get along great with Cirie, but, unfortunately, on paper, she doesn’t seem to have the skills that Cirie does, so I think that she would inevitably become the expendable one from this group. Too bad, too, her smile alone is enough to convince me she’s a sweetheart. Too bad she’s one year too old.
RUTH MARIE MILLIMAN— At 48, Ruth Marie strikes me as a very sweet lady. She seems to have experience with running, but in terms of the game, I’m going to have to postpone any guesses because I can’t really grasp at too much right now. Ruth Marie is one of those whom we will have to wait to see in action until I can make a better judgment.
TINA SCHEER— I read Tina’s bio, and instantly my heart went out to her. She was accepted, and was ready to go, to compete in Guatemala, but one week before her departure, her teenage son was killed in an auto accident. Tina is 45, and she has a mission: she’s going out there for her son. She’s also another avid outdoors person. I’ll be rooting for her.
This tribe is harder to read. I don’t get much of a read on Ruth Marie, but if I had to guess at roles, she could become the tribe’s mom. Her and Cirie. I think that the weakest is definitely Melinda, and the strongest is Tina.
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OLDER MEN
BRUCE KANEGAI— A 58 year old karate instructor, how cool is that? I definitely think he can be an asset to his tribe, but like Ruth Marie, I’m finding it hard to get a read on him in terms of how well he will do in the game. I will wait to see him action before making further judgments.
DANIEL BARRY— A 52 year old astronaut, that’s awesome! I’ve always been interested in space (as a hobby, never as a career, because I hate science) and think it’s cool that he’s flown shuttle missions and done spacewalks. He can obviously handle high stress situations. I think he’ll do well.
SHANE POWERS— This 35 year old has the shortest biography of the bunch, so there’s not a whole lot of material to go on. However, he describes himself as “witty, outgoing, and funny.” He also believes he can be the Sole Survivor because of his “unmatched communication skills.” I really don’t have much to go by to tell me that he won’t, so I’m going to watch him very closely to see if he can put his money where his mouth is. If he’s accurate in his impressions about himself, he could be interesting to watch, so pay attention!
TERRY DEITZ— A 46 year old airline pilot, Terry also has a military background. That could help him or hurt him, because since he’s a military guy, he’s obviously used to discipline and order. However, this group could be just his element. When the inevitable switch comes, however, if he’s still around, we’ll see how he adapts to his new environment. I think he has potential.
Overall, I think this can be a successful tribe. They seem to have the right amount of physical experience and wisdom to do well. It’s hard for me to choose a weak link and a strong link, but since I said that’s what I will do, I’m going to pick Shane as the weakest because he may identify the least with this crew, and Daniel is the strongest.
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Okay, so now here are the two lists of four that I’ve accumulated:
POTENTIAL FIRST BOOTS
Danielle
Bobby
Melinda
Shane
POTENTIAL WINNERS
Courtney
Aras
Tina
Daniel
Going based on that, here are my official pre-show predictions:
FIRST BOOT: Bobby
SOLE SURVIVOR: Courtney
Looks like a good group! We’ll see how good my predictions are this season! Whether I’m right or wrong, I can’t wait to see how it all pans out!
“See” you next week! Enjoy tonight’s premiere episode!
