“My main point … was, if the Mets were going to be liberal enough to allow Carlos Delgado to play for their team after he had turned his back on the flag for all these years, then they had to be liberal enough to allow me to pose for Playboy if I wanted to.”
–Kris Benson’s wife Anna, referring to Carlos Delgado’s refusal to stand during “God Bless America” in protest over the war in Iraq (The Baltimore Sun).
I’m back after a long delay. I just moved into a new house and took some time off of work, so internet access has been very limited. I’m going to try to make up for it in the next few weeks to get my player rankings up before Spring Training starts (and I go to Arizona to watch). First, I am introducing the 2006 pre-season All Breakout Team.
All Breakout Team:
C – Johnny Estrada, Diamondbacks – Estrada struggled after Darin Erstad cleaned his clock in a play at the plate last year. Now that he has had sufficient time to recover, and moving from a pitcher’s park (97) to a hitter’s park (109), Estrada will return to his form of 2 seasons ago. He will be a solid starter for a fantasy team this year. (Other to watch – Jeff Mathis, Josh Willingham; those to avoid – Ivan Rodriguez, Paul LoDuca)
1B – Casey Kotchman, Angels – The Halos have decided to move Erstad to center to open first for Kotchman. He is a prototypical first baseman (has power, little discipline) that struggled in his first stint in the Majors. He did rebound in the second half and should continue to improve this year. (Others to watch – Lyle Overbay, Conor Jackson; those to avoid – Sean Casey, Jeff Bagwell)
2B – Chase Utley, Phillies – Utley had second base cleared out last year when the Phillies move Placido Polanco to the Tigers. Utley could be a 5-tool player and is already a solid pick for his position (he should be picked in the first 5-7 rounds). Look for him to be the top player at the position after the season. (Others to watch – Luis Castillo, Rickie Weeks; those to avoid – Robinson Cano, Alfonso Soriano)
3B – Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox – I am technically cheating by putting him here since he will be playing first, but he still qualifies at third. Youkilis, “the Greek God of Walks” according to Moneyball, has shown he can be solid in the Majors in a part time role. It really is a about time he gets a starting role. (Others to watch – Chad Tracy, Mike Lowell; those to avoid – Chipper Jones, Bill Mueller)
SS – JJ Hardy, Brewers – He has improved every year he has played, and had a huge second half after struggling in the first part. He will be the shortstop for the Brew Crew, but most people will focus on Bill Hall in the draft (Hall may start in centerfield). Take a chance on him in the later rounds of the draft. (Others to watch – Khalil Greene, Bobby Crosby; those to avoid – Felipe Lopez, Clint Barmes)
OF – Matt Holliday, Rockies – While people will focus on Todd Helton and Clint Barmes from the Rockies, Holliday will be allowed to slide by. He is a solid outfielder in the best hitters park (119) in the league. His power is developing, so this could be a big year for him.
OF – David DeJesus, Royals – This will be the next player to play his way out of Kansas City, a la Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye, and Carlos Beltran. DeJesus has speed, can get on base, and is still developing power. He also has a better line up (not by much) that will help his numbers. Look for him as a late round steal.
OF – Jonny Gomes, Devil Rays – Gomes will slip under the radar since everyone is waiting for Delmon Young to come and Aubrey Huff to go. His playing time should remain as it was last year, even with Rocco Baldelli returning. He is in a young line up, but one that will gel together in the near future. He is an even better pick for keeper leagues. (Others to watch – Brad Wilkerson, Aaron Rowand, Coco Crisp; those to avoid – Randy Winn, Johnny Damon)
DH – Frank Thomas, Athletics – While he won’t be playing in the friendly confines of Cominskey Park (119 to 97 in Oakland), he will still show he is a good hitter. Thomas may be forgotten about on draft day due to his injury (ranks low from last year and there are still questions). (Others to watch – Juan Rivera, Jim Thome; those to avoid – Raul Ibanez, Dmitri Young)
SP – Francisco Liriano, Twins – Liriano may be the best rookie pitcher in the league this year. He has been dominate in the minors, leading them in Ks last year, but has been overshadowed by Felix Hernandez. In his 1 start in the Majors, he held his own. He has nothing left to prove in the minors, and is a solid sleeper pick this year.
SP – Kelvim Escobar and John Lackey, Angels – Everyone believes Bartolo Colon is the top pitcher for the Angels, but these 2 are more consistent and have more upside (Colon didn’t deserve the Cy Young award either). Escobar is a solid starter that contributes in every category. Lackey will be there in another season (his WHIP is still a tad high). Both are top 20 starters.
SP – Noah Lowry, Giants – Lowry has been that player on the edge that has good parts of a season, but has yet to bring it together. I feel this will be the year. He has to be, at best, the number 3 starter on the team (behind Jason Schmidt and Matt Morris), where last year he had to be the number 2 at times (at the ripe age of 24). Look for him to go in the middle rounds.
SP – Chris Young, Padres – Young had a solid first season in the Major League, but tired at the end. His second season should be even better since the ballpark change (89 in San Diego versus 113 in Dallas) and the better defense behind him. Add in the fact that he will be at the back end of the rotation rather than leading it, he will be a solid mid-roudn option. (Others to watch – Dan Haren, Scott Kazmir; those to avoid – Kevin Millwood, Javier Vazquez)
RP – Scott Linebrink, Padres – Linebrink will take center stage this year as the main set-up guy for Trevor Hoffman this year. I also see him being the closer when Hoffman retires. Linebrink should lead the league in holds, if the team can rebound from last year. He is probably the best up and coming set-up guy.
RP – Guillermo Mota, Indians – Mota didn’t have the bad season that everyone made it out to be. He was solid in the set up roles, and he will be the primary set-up man for Bob Wickman this year. He will also see a few saves drop to him. Most people may avoid him because of last year, so he should be available late in the draft. (Others to watch – Luis Ayala, JJ Putz; those to avoid – David Riske, Kyle Fransworth)
CL – Mike Gonzalez, Pirates – Gonzalez has been rumored to be taking over the closer role for the last 2 years. He will be a rare lefty closer, but he is effective against righties and lefties. He also will get a few more Ks than most closers. He is a solid closer pick after the big names are gone. (Others to watch – Joe Borowski, Chris Ray; those to avoid – Brian Fuentes, Todd Jones)
A few notes:
– The park ratings are my version based off of what was used in The 2006 Bill James Handbook. I added these for every player when I did my preseason rankings. The average park will score 100; anything above is a hitter’s park and anything below is a pitcher’s park.
– Some of these may seem obvious to some people, but I wanted to put this together so I can check at the end of the season. Some of my sleepers I took in my competitive league from last season included Jon Garland, Erik Bedard, John Patterson, and Nick Johnson. I did miss on a few in that league: Rick Ankiel and Laynce Nix most noticeably. (Just for a reference, I had a short column about some potential “breakout and recovering guys.” That team was: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Mark Loretta, Aaron Boone, Jimmy Rollins, Aaron Rowand, Brad Wilkerson, Carlos Lee, Dmitri Young, Oliver Perez, Jake Peavy, Joel Pineiro, Brandon Webb, Zach Greinke, Scott Linebrink, Yhancy Brazoban, Bob Wickman, and Eddie Guardado. I was pretty hit or miss.)
Rumor Mill
The Red Sox are still looking to make a trade or 2; some players that could leave Boston include David Wells (most likely during Spring Training), Tony Graffinino, Trot Nixon (free agent after the season), and/or Manny Ramirez (but chances are slim)…Talks are going on between the White Sox and Phillies again; a proposed deal would send Bobby Abreu and Gavin Floyd to the Sox for Jermaine Dye and Jose Contreras…The Mets are also interested in Contreras, but they won’t give up Lastings Milledge or Aaron Heilman to get him…The Red Sox and Yankees are interested in signing Roger Clemens, but both teams still see the Astros as the favorites; the 2 teams have made it know that they would also be interested in Andy Pettitte if he is on the market…The Phillies may move starting 3B David Bell during Spring Training; Kansas City would love to take him (since his father is the manager) if the Phils pay most of the contract…The Angels are dangling a short term contract (1 year @ $9 million) to free agent Jeff Weaver; it’s believed that the Cardinals are attempting the same thing…
Links
Trent calls out Patrick. Patrick is entertaining, so don’t listen to him.
IP Radio has Patrick and Steve making fun of Trent’s name some more.
Sick recaps UFC 57 and has a treat for those who read his article.
Tom looks at Superbowl XL in the Weekly Pulse.
Rokk makes some boxing predictions.
Steve previews the hockey portion of the Olympics.
Eric has the Raw Short Form, issues memos to some writers, and reviews the XL commercials.
