It’s pretty disappointing that we don’t have a new Survivor episode waiting for us tonight, especially since last week we had the recap episode, which never lives up to the hype the promos establish for it.
This hiatus also means I have to attempt to stretch discussion on one episode over three columns, which isn’t as easy as it sounds. However, I finally did manage to think of a way to do it, one which I established at the end of last week’s column. In case you forgot or didn’t read last week’s column, then here is my plan: last week I discussed the dynamics of the La Mina tribe, especially those that resulted in Dan’s boot. This week, I am going to discuss the dynamics of Casaya. Next week, since the previews have all confirmed that the ten remaining Survivors will be merging into one tribe, I’ll discuss what I think the chances of the players are as a new phase of the game begins.
So, then, without further ado, let’s discuss the dynamics of Casaya!
A lot of interesting things happened on this tribe in episode 6. The tensions that have been bubbling since they became a tribe, especially within the Nutball Alliance, in episode 2 seemed to reach a climax as Shane finally asked to be taken out of the alliance, and everyone else in the tribe, but especially Danielle, Courtney, and Cirie planned to vote him off next.
And how does Shane go about getting out of the alliance? He asks to take his son’s name back, which he swore on back at the formation of the Nutball Alliance. There have been many times during this season so far where an action or comment of Shane’s has caused me to do a double-take. This was one of those times. This whole swearing on his son’s name thing really took its toll on Shane. I’m not superstitious like that, so I don’t see how it can be THAT important to someone to where he will make such a blunder that he will go to his alliance-mates and say “You need to give me my son’s name back because I want out of my alliance with you!” True, he was gone anyway, but he may not have known that! Even if you hate someone’s guts and don’t want to be aligned with them anymore, you NEVER go right up to them and TELL THEM! Because that just gives them more reason than ever to vote you out, especially when they don’t like you, per this situation.
What was funniest of all, at least for me, was how Danielle and Courtney said “yes” before he even finished speaking. They were so eager to just get rid of him and not have to deal with him that they couldn’t contain themselves. Even Aras knows that Shane needs to go, and so it seems like the cards are set.
But, as we know already, Casaya won once again, sending La Mina to another Tribal Council. They definitely made the right move in picking Sally for Exile Island, rightly assuming that she was in trouble, and by doing so, they really screwed with La Mina’s plans.
Now, the discussion becomes really interesting, because we get to the point of the show where the members of Casaya got to go party at the village for the day.
I’ve said it a million times since this season began, but I’m going to keep saying it because every week, it confirmed more and more: Cirie is absolutely brilliant. There is no question in my mind that she is the smartest player out there. She knows what the game entails, and she is very good at seeing the political and social dynamics of the tribe. She recognized immediately that the party was increasing Shane’s popularity. Before the party, his boot was a done deal, but with the party and potential bonding, it may not be as sure.
Now, as we know, Cirie has nothing to worry about in that respect because the merger is coming, but even if we didn’t know that, we can definitely infer that, based on what we have seen of Shane during six episodes, his sudden increase in mood will not last long. After all, they have to go back to camp eventually, and the conditions there will bring out Shane’s true character once again. The fact that he had a cigarette might even guarantee that further because he gave into the temptation once after going without for several days, and so his body could go into convulsions, even because of one little cigarette. I’m willing to bet he won’t be feeling any better.
Overall, the tribe is not going to stay united. They still have to live together; one day of partying and celebration is not going to change that. They have been impressive in the challenges, but that does not change the fact that their political environment has been in shambles since they became a tribe.
This will not bode well at all for the merge, and I’m pretty confident in the prediction that Casaya will not remain united to pick off La Mina. This is definitely going to be a season where people from each tribe band together. I’ll make some more specific predictions next week, and then we’ll finally get another new episode of Survivor! It already feels like forever since Dan was voted out, and we still have one week to go. Oh, well, that’s television for you: we have to suffer just because CBS wants Survivor to extend into May sweeps.
Stay tuned for my merge predictions!
“See” you next week!
