The Eyes– A Fresh Start

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Finally!

It feels like forever since Dan was voted off, and after a three week hiatus, SURVIVOR: PANAMA—EXILE ISLAND returns with a brand-new episode tonight!

I think after just one or two more weeks of having to stretch out discussion of episode 6 without any fresh material, I would have been like Shane: total detox from Survivor withdrawal.

But, no worries of that anymore, and I’m sure tonight’s episode will be worth the wait! Why, do you ask? Well, because tonight marks the beginning of a new phase of the game, my favorite.

You guessed it: it’s time for the MERGE!

So, therefore, since I have already discussed the dynamics of La Mina and Casaya, I am going to devote this week’s discussion to making some predictions for the 10 members of the new tribe, and I feel the easiest way to do that is to run down each person one by one.

I’ve already established the fact that I do not see Casaya sticking together and picking off the La Mina members. It definitely could happen, but I doubt it. Casaya is just too fractured politically.

So, here is the rundown:

ARAS—He’s one of the strongest Casaya males, and I think, over anyone, he will be perceived as Casaya’s leader. He could be a potential early target, and as another strike against him, he doesn’t seem to really have much of a clue in terms of strategy. Of all of them, I can best see him as the idealist, saying “Let’s stick together for Casaya pride!” We’ll see how long that lasts.

AUSTIN—He’s going to be in trouble. He’s one of the three strong guys from La Mina, in the event that people from Casaya do stick together, Austin, Nick, and Terry are going to be early targets.

BRUCE—This merge is likely to be his salvation. It was clear he was on the outs with the Casaya tribe, so now he’s going to have new people in the mix to work with. He just needs to make sure, as always, that he keeps his ego in check.

CIRIE—My pick to win it all. She did a hell of a job surviving on Casaya, and now that she’s at the merge she’s golden. There’s no question in my mind that she is the smartest player out there. No one is going to target her until towards the end when they start to realize what a Final Two threat she is going to be. Even then, I still see her easily in Final Four, and hope she wins it all! Go Cirie!

COURNTEY—I like Courtney. I don’t really see her going anywhere for a little while, despite Shane’s claims, she seems to know the game. She’s definitely slightly off-the-wall, but if you think about it, aren’t we all? I certainly hope so, otherwise this world would be a very boring place.

DANIELLE—She’s my second favorite, after Cirie. She’s smart, she’s athletic, and I think she has a great shot of making it really far.

NICK—He and Austin are clearly joined at the hip, so my diagnosis for Nick is no better than Austin’s: it doesn’t look good. If Casaya does, against all odds, stick together, it will likely only be to get rid of the three male La Mina threats. I don’t really see Nick lasting, but it’s definitely possible.

SALLY—She was granted salvation last round with her trip to Exile Island, and now she is being given salvation again. I swear, this girl is like a cat: she’s got nine lives! All I can say is she had better take full advantage of this opportunity. I think she will.

SHANE—What a crackpot, but that’s nothing new. He has the strategic sense of a moth, and I hope he doesn’t last. I don’t want to see him make the Final Four. I don’t think he will, but stranger things have certainly happen.

TERRY—He’d better thank his lucky stars that he has that hidden Immunity Idol. He’s going to be an early target, and he’s got that trump card. Unfortunately, it only works one time, and towards the beginning of the season, I thought that he might become the next Tom Westman. Not anymore. He’s physical, but he’s proven that he does not really make good strategic decisions. He is too much of a short-term thinker. Voting out Ruth Marie and Dan was horrible long-term strategy, and I get the feeling that sooner or later, cutting those two solid allies loose is going to come back and bite him sooner or later.

I’m going to regret this later, but I’m going to try my hand at picking the Final Four in the spirit of March Madness:

Cirie
Danielle
Sally
Courtney

(Don’t worry, I’m prepared to be WAY off, but I’m almost certain with Cirie and Danielle)

The winner will be CIRIE.

Tonight, the boot will be either AUSTIN or NICK. I’m not really sure which, and while I doubt Casaya will hold together for long, I do predict that since Austin and Nick are young and strong and in the minority tribe, one of them will be voted off first.

So there you have it! I can’t wait to see how it all plays out! Enjoy the return of the show tonight!

“See” you next week!