From the Mailbag…
Allow me to second dude’s request for “Three Baseball Guys” to become a regular feature on IP Sports. I’ve really enjoyed the feature, even though I’ve disagreed with about 50% of what you guys have written. At the very least, I demand a follow-up column later this year so you can gloat/eat crow for your predictions. Good job, guys.
Darren S.
Aww! And, did you know that today’s my birthday, too? I can honestly say that this is probably the nicest gift I’ll get today that’s not something I can actually hold, use and/or enjoy.
Did one of you really predict a sub-.500 season for Boston this year? C’mon, Cam…I know that you’re inherently biased against all things Boston (Red Sox, Sports Guy, etc.) but have the other two been drinking from the same pitcher of Kool-Aid? The Yanks and Sox are carbon-copies of one another and still the only two teams that can win the east. Hell, the Sox will win 81 by accident. It’s that other 10-15 wins they’ll have to fight for.
Max J.
Actually, I think that was Hulse that said the Sox could finish under .500 “if things don’t break right”. I’ve been singing their praises throughout this feature, so don’t mistake my distaste for Curt Schilling and Bill Simmons as bias against the Sox. And, for the record, I have it on good authority that neither Hulse nor Daniels has ever had a sip of Kool-Aid in their lives, as I’m pretty sure they don’t sell it in Kroger’s.
Glad to see baseball get the coverage on IP that you guys usually reserve for…well, other “sports”. But, I’m disappointed in the obvious east coast bias, with all the questions pertaining to the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Blue Jays, etc. Y’know the do play ball west of the Mississippi. Just something to think about for your final five questions.
Danny W.
For those scoring at home, we’ve got two Mets fans and an A’s fan. If you believe the previous letter, we’re bias against the Red Sox, but Danny says we favor them. Admittedly, I’m confused, but since you didn’t directly bash me, we’ll run your letter and let it slide. Readers…only one more part to go after this one, so get that Daniels n’ Hulse bashing in to me, ASAP.
Q: Which players are most likely to be moved at the trading deadline?
Aaron: Well, for anything to go down, there’ll need to be some players nearing the end of their current contracts on teams who are going nowhere. If the Padres struggle, Mike Piazza’s name might come up in July. Toronto’s Vernon Wells won’t be a free agent until ’07, but if the Jays underachieve, he could be on the market despite the regression of his numbers since 2003. There’s already talk of vastly overrated Angels CF Darin Erstad being platooned this year. The Halos would love to get rid of his bloated contract and find another team suckered in by his “intensity” (i.e. frowny face and dirty uniform) and one truly great year (it happened in 2000).
Daniels: With all the talk about Barry Zito being moved off the A’s, I have to assume that he’s going to be out of Oakland at the deadline, probably to some team in New York, and probably to whichever of those two teams don’t sign Roger Clemens in May. With the current problems between Alfonso Soriano and the Nationals, I think they’d be insane not to try and get something for him. They have no prayer of signing him next year, regardless of how they finish, and they can probably get a decent amount of young talent for him from a contender.
Hulse: Based on their tight payroll and uncanny ability to snag top end prospects, don’t be shocked to see Barry Zito move from Oakland, especially if he struggles in the first half. Also, Alfonso Soriano has made it very clear that he has no desire to be in Washington, and if they’re out of it, they’ll get something for him because they know they can’t re-sign him for any cost. Aubrey Huff has been a rumor to be traded from Tampa for about 3 years running, so it may actually happen this season if the right offer comes along.
Q: What is the one trade that needs to be made right now?
Aaron: Truth be told, I hate it when someone calls into those inane sports talk show to propose a trade. It’s always some variation of the same offer: “Give us their team’s best player and we’ll give them six sh*tty guys in return”. As if quantity is actually akin to quality. That said, it’s obvious that the Washington Nationals are going to be apocalyptically awful this season, so why add insult to injury with six months of disgruntled Alfonso Soriano? There probably aren’t too many teams lining up to bid for a mediocre defender and overrated hitter…who’s making $10 million this year, but the Anaheim Angels could use an upgrade at 2B over Adam Kennedy. How about Soriano in a straight up swap for top Angels prospect Eric Aybar? Soriano could DH vs. righties and take Kennedy’s AB’s vs. lefties, while the Nats are getting a 22-year-old who’s never hit below .300 and has a career SLG of .461. Alf’s a one-year rental to upgrade the offense and the Nats have their SS or 3B of the future. Win-win, baby.
Daniels: Alfonso Soriano for Victor Diaz and whoever (Victor Zambrano or Brian Bannister). Diaz is not going to get the playing time he deserves with what the Mets gave up for Xavier Nady. Soriano is never going to be happy playing the outfield. While this will be a bad thing for the Nationals’ GM (considering what they gave up for Soriano) he never should have made the trade in the first place and should get this problem off his desk as soon as possible. If Bowden has any desire to remain the team’s General Manager whenever the new owner takes over, he better move Soriano yesterday and get some kind of long term value for him.
Hulse: I really think Alfonso Soriano needs to be traded ASAP. Anywhere. Preferably Flushing, so that I can root for another Latino with a big bat. But if he stays in Washington, essentially being forced to play for a team he never wanted to play for, in a position he has no desire to be in, he’s either going to have the worst statistical season he’s ever had, or he’s going to play his 95 games needed to qualify for free agency and sit himself on the bench.
Q: How many home runs will this year’s major league leader finish with and who will it be?
Aaron: Albert Pujols is usually the knee-jerk choice, but there’s no telling how the Cardinals new park is going to play for power hitters. So, let’s go with Mark Teixeria down in Texas. He hit 43 last year and his numbers have gotten better across the board in each of his first three years. The scary thing is that he’ll be turning 26 about a week and a half into the new season and still not at that famous “age 27” season where, historically and statistically, players seem to put up their most impressive numbers. This, of course, will pain me to no end as the Rangers play in the same division as my beloved A’s and I f*ckin’ can’t stand Buck Showalter.
Daniels: Barry Bonds. All insinuations and allegations aside, is still probably the best hitter in baseball (other than that Albert Pujols kid, who might be something someday). If Bonds stays healthy most of the season (say 120 games), he should get enough pitches to hit 40, and that will probably lead the league.
Hulse: I think the league leader will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 45 bombs, and I’m going to have to go with Barry Bonds, provided he doesn’t get hurt and doesn’t get suspended for a good length of time. He’s still hitting balls out at a clip of a home run to every 8 at bats. Even if he misses 40 games through the year, he clears 40 in his sleep.
Q: Which players can we expect to have their numbers decline from last year to this year?
Aaron: Pedro Martinez will not pitch 200 innings this year, he will not win 15 games and he damn sure won’t have a WHIP under 1.00, again. Boston’s Jason Varitek turns 34 this year and has been remarkably consistent for an over-30 catcher. Now is as good a time as any for all those years behind the plate to catch up to him. Last year, Ken Griffey, Jr. put up his best season in six years…he won’t get 500+ plate appearances again. And, most obviously, from everything I’ve seen and read, Florida’s Dontrelle Willis is either pitching hurt or has completely lost his mechanics. Either way, his season could be as ugly as he is.
Daniels: On the pitching side, I don’t think there’s any chance that Aaron Small duplicates his performance from last year. Hitting, I think Mike Jacobs, who got traded to the Marlins in the Delgado deal, has no chance to keep of the pace he set last year. In 30 games with the Mets he put up a .310 average and 11 home runs. Heading out on the field Triple A Florida this year I don’t think there’s any way he keeps up that type of pace. Speaking of the Marlins, I don’t think we’ll be discussing whether the D-Train can hit 30 wins this season.
Hulse: Generally speaking, players tend to have their best years when they’re headed into free agency the following spring. After that, they tend to tail off a bit, the recent recipient of a fat contract. This year the field was thin for big time free agents who seem to be in this mold. Billy Wagner’s been consistent his entire career, Johnny Damon just signed a mega deal but with the players in the lineup behind him you can’t imagine him somehow slumping off. The only big money free agent I can see trailing off is BJ Ryan. He needs to prove he can do it again after only one season as a big time closer. Without any other big deal free agents coming off breakout years, I’m looking at some of the young guns who had great years and are now challenged to duplicate them. Dontrelle Willis will not repeat his Cy Young caliber season. Miguel Cabrera has been a Godsend to the Marlins, but they officially have nobody hitting in the lineup with him, he will suffer as a result. The Marlins are only 3 years removed from a World Series win, but now anything under 100 losses would be a positive thing.
Q: What’s your one fearless, out-on-a-limb, but still sure-to-happen prediction for this season?
Aaron: As an African-American with a questionable work ethic, myself, I’m calling the first two manager dismissals this season will be Frank Robinson and Dusty Baker. While Robinson remains the world’s oldest freed slave, at nearly 200 years old, I just can’t see him willingly sitting through this (wait for it) long National nightmare. He’ll step down by June 15. Baker, on the other hand, will be shown the door the old-fashioned way with well-deserved firing at the All Star Break. And, in a show of solidarity and spite, he’ll be handed his pink slip by pitchers Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, whose careers Baker effectively killed off with his inexcusable overuse of the duo in 2003.
Daniels: The Yankees do not win the AL East this year, ending their current AL East title streak at 8. Yes, I consider this out on a limb because picking against a $200 million payroll in a division where 3 out of the other 4 teams could end up winning 100 or 60 depending on how the season falls, is ballsy.
Hulse: The Chicago Cubs will be the sexy World Series pick based on the arms of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, which will fall off by Memorial Day. Cubs fans will continue to pack the house and accept mediocrity.
Check back on Monday (Opening Day!) for Part VI, as our intrepid trio tell you who’s going to the playoffs, who’s staying home, who’ll win it all and…well, you know the routine.
