How’s it going gangstas? With the NCAA Title Game tonight, and Opening Day of MLB unfolding all around us as I write this, NFL football is probably the LAST thing on your mind.
I’m here to change all that. Especially if you are a fan of the Patriots, Dolphins, Bills, or Jets. If you are, then I will friggin rock your world, with my post-free agent season State of the AFC East.
Before we get to that though, let’s take a quick look at some of the goings on in the League this week.
-Terry Glenn had a huge year in 05, and was rewarded with a five year, $20 million dollar extension. Which, in the NFL, where careers are short and nothing is guaranteed, translates to about 2 years and $8 million before he’s released.
-Houston signed former Philly DE ND Kalu to bolster their pass rush. Kalu is a pass rushing specialist who can’t get to the quarterback. Good luck with that. The Texans are a really awesome organization. They have a solid plan, and really know what they’re doing. April fools.
-The Packers signed former Cowboys kicker Billy Cundiff, who will compete to replace the dearly departed Ryan Longwell.
-Early last week rumors were flying around that the Bills were looking to deal QB JP Losman, who last year at this time was the enchanted golden child expected to lead the team back to its glory days of losing the Super Bowl every year. Then they found out he can’t play, and that there is a reason why his greatest football achievement other than having a good combine was leading Tulane to a 5-7 record in 2004. Now they are saying they don’t want to trade him anymore, they still love him. Okay then.
-Brett Favre still doesn’t know if he wants to come back and go 3-13 next year.
– The Ravens have stated emphatically that they signed Mike Anderson, who rushed for 1014 yards and 12 TDs with Denver in 05, to back up Jamal Lewis (who rushed for 906 yards and 3 TDs last season), NOT to be the starter.
-Former Seahawks CB Andre Dyson was signed by the Jets to replace departed Ty Law. Dyson shall forever be in my good graces for scoring 2 defensive TDs for my fantasy team, the day after I picked up Seattle’s defense. He also pioneered a vacuum that never loses suction, much like his new team.
– While Dyson is leaving Seattle, WR Nate Burleson arrives in the Emerald City. He was signed to a seven year, $49 million contract to try and be Joe Jurevicius next year. Burleson pretty much screwed the pooch in Minnesota last year after having what looked like a breakout year in 2004.
-CB Ty Law, who picked off 10 passes last year, is rumored to be heading to Tennessee to become a Titan. My take on this is that I spent enough time and energy covering where he was going to end up last year, and this year, I could really give a shit where he plays. How’s that grab ya?
– WR Eric Moulds looks like he’s going to be a Houston Texan next year. He can look forward to a season of running around the defensive backfield while David Carr stares longingly at him, holding onto the ball like it contains the antitdote, then gets planted into the ground like a cherry tree. This will happen many, many times.
OK, I promised you an AFC East preview, so here it is!
STATE OF THE AFC EAST
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Rushing Offense
3.4 Yards Per Carry, 31st in NFL
The Patriots are a team that disproves the axiom that “You have to be able to run the ball effectively to win in the NFL”. If I ever say that again, I want you to send somebody to kick me in the balls. Here’s why. The 2003 Patriots won the Super Bowl despite averaging only 3.4 yards per carry, which ranked 30th in the league. The 2004 team improved to 18th in the league, thanks mostly to the acquisition of Corey Dillon. They won the Super Bowl too. Last year, Dillon was banged up and the running game regressed to second worst in the league per carry.
Dillon turns 32 next season, and he’s coming up on 2500 carries for his career. Compare that to somebody like Tiki Barber, who is only a year younger than Dillon, but has carried only 1900 times. After you do that, compare the performance of those two backs in 05. Tiki rushed for 1860 yards last year, Corey rushed for 733. Corey Dillon, I fear, is done, and the Patriots don’t have a viable plan B as of this writing. Can they continue to succeed despite the lack of an ability to run the ball? If it were any other team I’d say no. But they’re the Patriots, so I will say maybe.
Passing Offense
7.65 Yards per Attempt, 6th in NFL; 28 Sacks Allowed 9th best (tied) in NFL
As we’ve discussed above, Tom Brady and the passing game are the bread and butter of the Pats’ offense. Two of the top five receivers in yardage from last year won’t be back this year, and that could be a problem. The biggest issue will be whether anyone can step up and replace David Givens, who left for Nashville via free agency. Givens was the team’s second leading receiver last year, catching 59 passes for 738 yards and 2 TD during the regular season, and matching that season TD total in the playoffs.
Among the candidates to step into Givens’ role will be free agent signee Reche Caldwell, a former second round pick who had the best year of his career last year, 28 catches for 352 yards and 1 TD, which ain’t all that good. After him, you’ve got the Bethel Johnsons and Zuriel Smiths of the world, along with the justified and ancient Troy Brown. I would say there’s still some work to be done here, because if the Pats go into the season with their receiving depth chart unchanged from what it is today, they’re toast.
Rushing Defense
3.6 Yards per Attempt, 5th in NFL
One thing the Patriots always do well is stop the run, and last season was no exception even though the team fell short of the Super Bowl. That shouldn’t change at all in 06. Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, and Richard Seymour are as good of a 3 man D line as you’ll find, and they’re the strength of the New England defense. You can talk all you want about the Shaun Alexanders, the Peyton Mannings, and the T.O.’s of the league, but more often than not it’s the teams with the most effective fat guys that succeed, and the Pats know that.
Passing Defense
7.03 Yards Per Attempt, 30th in NFL; 33 sacks, 23rd in NFL
The Pats Super Bowl teams were always OK against the pass, and the fact that, as Marcellus Wallace from Pulp Fiction would say, New England’s pass defense was “Pretty f***in far from OK” last year, may have been the reason why they did not repeat.
In a way, the Patriots were lucky that they played in a division, the AFC East, in which none of their rivals were well positioned to exploit their biggest weakness. Think about the fact that the Patriots were 30th in pass defense, and that THESE guys in their own division all threw TD passes against them last year:
Brooks Bollinger
Vinny Testaverde
Gus Frerotte (Three of them)
JP Losman
Kelly Holcomb
I’ll go out on a limb and say all of these guys are bad. None of them were the kind of QB that could make the Pats pay for having such a shitty secondary (that they’ve done nothing to upgrade this offseason). The team that finished a game behind them last year traded for a guy that can. We’ll talk about that in a bit. Add in the fact that they’ve lost a key pass rushing linebacker in Willie McGinest, and things have gotten worse, not better, from last year.
Kicking Game
80% FG Accuracy, 16th in NFL
Adam Vinatieri has made some big kicks in his career, but a lot of that is due to the fact that he was put in a position to do so. The facts are he was in the middle of the pack accuracy wise last year, and that does not warrant a big money contract, so the Pats let him leave for Indy. He’ll be replaced by someone, although right now they have no idea who. Maybe YOU.
Here’s Your Forecast
The running game is on the brink of collapse, the pass defense is already there, and then there’s the matter of just who Tom Brady is supposed to throw the ball to. If Brady and Bill Belichick find a way to get the playoffs with this team in 06, you should all pray to them as your Gods. The division is still winnable though, and their fat guys are quality, which counts for a lot, so who knows maybe you will. I say second place in the AFC East next year, no playoffs.
Will Dillon’s Numbers Continue to Dive in 06?
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Rushing Offense
4.3 Yards Per Carry, 7th in NFL
You may not have realized it, because I don’t think anyone noticed anything the Dolphins did late last season, but Ricky Williams ran really well last year. He averaged 4.4 yards per carry, rushed for 743 yards, and 6 touchdowns. He’s currently appealing a positive ganja test that would be his 4th strike, and would mean he would be suspended for the entirety of the 2006 season, along with some sort of Talmudic punishment that involves the reattachment of his foreskin.
No worries for the Dolphins though, because Ronnie Brown should be ready to become a feature back and a star, right? Well, the 2nd pick in last year’s draft didn’t exactly finish the year with a bang. He split carries with Ricky, and averaged less than 3 yards per in 4 of his last 5 games. He’ll need to do some serious conditioning if he is to hold up as a feature back over 16 games, because chances are the Ricky hemp safety net won’t be there this year.
Passing Offense
6.21 Yards Per Attempt, 27th in NFL; 26 sacks allowed, 4th best in NFL
And the Dolphins know that they need to protect Ronnie Brown, which is a big reason why they made the trade for their new QB, Daunte Culpepper. The Dolphins were able to somehow wring decent passing numbers out of an unholy combination of Gus Frerotte and Sage Rosenfels last year, thanks to a very good offensive line that gave them time to throw, a quality receiving corps led by Chris Chambers, who had a breakout year, and a sound offensive scheme built by offensive coordinator (and now Rams head coach) Scott Linehan.
They now have a quarterback who only two years ago threw 39 TD passes. Of course, he threw only 6 last year, and 12 INT’s, and there are A LOT of boats in South Florida. Regardless, the Dolphins have every single tool he will need to succeed, if he is fully recovered from the injury that ended his season in 05, he will bounce back in a big way.
Rushing Defense
3.7 Yards per Attempt, 9th in NFL
As you can tell by the fact that they ranked 9th in the league in run defense, the Miami front seven is pretty solid, and as long as Zach Thomas is at it’s heart, it will continue to be. He had 162 tackles and 4 forced fumbles last season. Veterans Keith Traylor and Vonnie Holliday do their job well, which is allowing the playmakers on defense, and the Dolphins have a lot of them, to do their thing.
One trap the Dolphins must avoid falling into in order to keep their defense among the league’s best, is they must avoid the temptation to get too pass happy with Culpepper. Part of the reason the defense succeeded last year, was that the Dolphins played a ball control offense which kept the defense off the field for large chunks of time. The clock stops on incomplete passes, the more incomplete passes you throw, the more plays both teams are going to run. The more plays the other team runs, the more chances they have to pick up yards and score points. It will be particularly important for the Dolphins to continue to have a well-balanced attack, because age is a factor on this defense.
Passing Defense
6.03 Yards Per Attempt, 9th best in NFL; 49 sacks, 2nd in NFL
You didn’t hear it very often, but Dolphins DE Jason Taylor was one of the best players in the league last season. He had 12 sacks, and 73 tackles from the defensive end position, which isn’t easy to do. At 32 he’s a more complete player than ever.
The secondary will be revamped this year. Veteran corner Sam Madison left for the Giants, and in return the Dolphins signed Giants corner Will Allen. Allen was a first round pick in 2001, but he hasn’t been special so far in his NFL career. He’s still young enough to improve though. Safety Lance Schulters also is expected to sign elsewhere, and he played well in his only season in Miami last year, leading the team with 4 INTs. The Fins signed former Raider Renaldo Hill to replace him, and he is a downgrade.
Kicking Game
83.3% FG Accuracy, 12th in NFL
Olindo Mare has been the Dolphins’ kicker forever, and he may have saved his job last season by converting 25 out of 30 attempts after 3 straight seasons below 80%, which is kind of the cutoff that determines whether you’re part of the solution or part of the problem.
Here’s Your Forecast
This is the most talented team in the AFC East. They’ve got a solid defense that is equally effective against any kind of attack, and now they have one of the most dangerous offenses in the league. The only barrier standing between them and overtaking the Patriots is a psychological one. That’ll be the responsibility of second year coach Nick Saban to break through. I’m going to say he will, and the Dolphins will win the AFC East in 2006.
Taylor and the Dolphins Will Kick It In the Playoffs This Year
BUFFALO BILLS
Rushing Offense
3.8 Yards Per Attempt, 22nd in NFL
RB Willis McGahee had a “disappointing” season in 05, after a “breakout” year in 04. Or at least that’s what the official line was. In reality, he ran for 119 more yards in 05 than in 04, and averaged only 0.2 yards less per carry. The reason people say he had a disappointing year is that most people only care about what a guy does for their fantasy team, and in 05 he only scored 5 touchdowns, not 13 like he did in 04. So it’s a misconception that McGahee had a bad sophomore year. He played pretty much the same as he did the year before, only he didn’t get in the end zone nearly as often. The reality is he’s a second tier running back, more in the same league as your Domanick Davises and Fred Taylors, not your Larry Johnsons or Clinton Portises or those guys, and he probably will always be a solid, but unspectacular starting running back in that mold.
Passing Offense
6.21 Yards per Attempt , 26th in NFL; 43 Sacks Allowed, 23rd in NFL
The Bills made a disastrous decision to hand their offense over to second year QB JP Losman last year. It set the franchise back three years and everybody involved with making the decision has justifiably been fired. This year you’re more likely to see a training camp competition between Kelly Holcomb, who the team was 3-4 under last year (vs. 2-7 with Losman), and former Packers understudy Craig Nall.
If that doesn’t excite you, toss in the fact that the Bills number one receiver from last season, and from what seems like the last 100 seasons, Eric Moulds, is going to be elsewhere in 06, and you’ve got a recipe for suck.
Rushing Defense
4.5 Yards Per Attempt, 29th in NFL
Well the number pretty much says it all. They gave up 4 ½ yards a carry, and that just isn’t going to beat anybody. This collapse came after they had the 5th best defense in that department in 2004.
They got rid of malcontent DT Sam Adams, and replaced him with former Colts DT Larry Tripplett, that’s a step in the right direction. So will be getting back star LB Takeo Spikes, who missed pretty much all of 05 with an injury. Nobody saw the disintegration of the defense coming last season, and they’ll have to play back to their 04 level if the Bills are going to have any shot at being competitive.
Passing Defense
6.55 Yards per Attempt, 22nd in NFL; 38 sacks, 13th in NFL
Things weren’t much better for the Buffalo defense against the pass last year. They went from having the #3 rated pass defense in the league, to ranking 22nd in yards per attempt last season. They’ve replaced safety Lawyer Milloy who departed via free agency by promoting 4th year player Coy Wire, and that’s not an upgrade. They do have 2 pretty good corners in Terrence McGee and Nate Clements though, and a big time pass rusher in DE Aaron Schobel, who had 12 sacks last year. The defense should, at least in this area, be a lot better than it was in 05.
Kicking Game
82.9% FG Accuracy, 13th in NFL
Rian Lindell was pretty shaky for a few years after an outstanding rookie season with Seattle in 2000, but he’s rebounded with a pair of strong seasons, in a difficult stadium to kick in. The Bills seem to be in good shape here.
Here’s Your Forecast
There’s potential for improvement here. The misery of last season can, in large part be pinned on two things, the first and biggest factor was the decision to start Losman at quarterback, and that mistake won’t, or shouldn’t be repeated this year. The second factor was the injury to Spikes, a loss which seemed to break the back of the defense. That shouldn’t be a problem this year either. New head coach Dick Jauron got a lot out of some bad Bears teams in the early part of the decade. New GM Marv Levy is old, but, mark my words, he is going to do well in this job. Don’t expect any miracles, but the Bills will be a lot more competitive in 06 than they were in 05.
McGahee’s Got A Lot to Prove
NY JETS
Rushing Offense
3.5 Yards Per Attempt, 28th in NFL
Remember what I said about Corey Dillon and his 2500 NFL carries? Well, Curtis Martin has 3500 carries. Herm Edwards pretty much tapped out whatever was left in him when he gave him the ball 371 times in 2004, when he led the NFL in rushing. He’s on the one way train to Emmitt Smith in Arizona land. It won’t help that the guy who has blocked for him for most of his career, center Kevin Mawae, was allowed to skip town either.
Cedric Houston showed promise at the end of last season. He averaged 3.7 yards per carry, and he’ll be the Jets starting running back by the end of the season again.
Passing Offense
6.35 Yards Per Attempt, 23rd in NFL; 53 sacks allowed, 30th in NFL
As you can tell by the fact that the Jets ranked 28th in rushing, and 30th in sacks allowed, there’s an obvious problem here with the offensive line. The Jets, in their infinite wisdom, chose to remedy this by trading for a quarterback who has a penchant for getting injured (Patrick Ramsey) as their insurance policy for a quarterback whose career may already have been ended by an injury (Chad Pennington).
Lavaernues Coles and Justin McCareins are a decent pair of starting wideouts, but they don’t really have a healthy, competent quarterback to get them the ball, or an O line that will give them time to get open.
Rushing Defense
3.9 Yards Per Attempt, 14th in NFL
It was the defense that kept the Jets from completely getting their doors blown off every time they stepped on the field last year. The defense was strong largely because they had a star player at each level of defense. Two of those 3 guys are gone this year (John Abraham and Ty Law), so that’s going to put an even heavier load on the one that’s left, Jonathan Vilma. NT Dewayne Robertson, who was the 4th overall pick in the 03 draft, has been a steady player and should make things a little easier for Vilma. That said, the defense is liable to take a step back this year.
Passing Defense
5.96 Yards Per Attempt, 7th in NFL; 30 sacks, 25th in NFL
Again, the unit was good last year, but has significant losses headed into this season. Particularly troublesome is that they lost their leading sackman (Abraham), who had 10 10 ½ sacks last year. Nobody else even had 4. The Jets have to be asking themselves where the pass rush is going to come from this year, especially since they will no longer have a top flite corner to help the line get coverage sacks.
Kicking Game
78.6% FG Accuracy, 19th in NFL
The Jets used their second round pick on K Mike Nugent last year, and the results were below expectations. Nugent made only 7 of 12 attempts from 40+ yards, and those aren’t the kind of numbers they were expecting to get for their second round pick.
Here’s Your Forecast
Well, let’s see here, the offense is an absolute mess, the defense has some huge question marks, and their new head coach, Eric Mangini, is 2 years older than the featured running back.
While we’re on the subject, let’s talk about Eric Mangini. I look at his bio and I see his most relevant experience is that he has ONE season as a defensive coordinator. Then I see that in that one season, he was the architect of a New England defense that I’m pretty sure I could have thrown for 250 yards against. How does this guy get a head coaching job in the NFL’s biggest market? Am I taking crazy pills, or is something wrong with this? It’s a shite state of affairs, and all the fresh air in the world won’t make any f***ing difference.
Vilma’s Trapped On a Lousy Team
IT’S HARD OUT HERE FOR A PIMP
Alright that does it for this week. Next week, I hit you with the NFC North.
Until then, check out these fine pieces of work:
Patrick grades end zone celebrations. If you don’t read anything else the rest of your life, read this.
Steve talks about Paul Dana’s tragic accident.
Aaron Cameron and friends answer MLB’s burning questions.
Okay then see ya next week.
