Since the current NBA playoff format was introduced, in 1984, the percentage of 8th seeds to win playoff series’ is below 10%. Basically folks, there’s only a micro-small chance in hell that your team is going to make any noise with big boys once playoff time rolls around.
However, I’m going to talk about which 8th seeds, or possible 8th seeds, have the best shot of beating one of sports’ longest odds. Who knows, maybe this is the year you can have your own gigantic uncoordinated center hugging the ball under his basket after an improbable victory; a victory that embarrasses Seattle Sonic fans and probably isn’t even remembered by many Denver Nugget fans.
What has made the prospect even more difficult in recent years was the leagues move to a 7 game series in the first round, as opposed to the 5 game series that were instituted before hand. Typically, the better team has a greater shot of winning the series the longer it goes as the talent begins to rise to the top. While conspiracy theorists complained that the new format came about because of a pro-Laker agenda, most NBA fans with a brain realized it was a shameless money grab by David Stern and the rest of the NBA “Lilliputians.” If they had their way there would 15 games series’ and the league would play well into September, and in so doing they damned the underdogs to even steeper odds than they previously had. Thanks Mr. Stern.
So, who this year is doomed to perish? Can anyone out there make a Thermopylae-like stand against what tends to be a vastly superior force of arms? What teams can make a game of it and what teams are simply road kill whose feet just haven’t touched the summer-sunned asphalt?
Western Conference
This season luck may be with the years 8th seed. Typically, what would be a rout could be a competitive series because of the major health concerns of the San Antonio Spurs who lead the Dallas Mavericks in the conference by just one game with several remaining.
Tim Duncan has had his worst half season in history, due to health issues, and is joined in those issues by Manu Ginobili. Not only did Ginobili help screw my fantasy basketball fortunes, but his impact on the Spurs this season has been much smaller than expectations. Both players probably will not be very healthy when the first round begins and so any prospective 8th seed has that going for it. In fact, one could make the case that if the Spurs DO hold off the Mavs that the 8th seed could actually have an easier road of it than the 7th seed would. Let’s just assume the Spurs hold the Mavs off….who are the 8th seed possibilities:
1-Denver Nuggets:
The Nuggets sit right now in the 6th seed, but are only 3 games out of falling to 8th. They probably wouldn’t fall this far, but it’s certainly possible they do so let’s talk about them briefly.
One interesting thing about Denver is that based on point differential per game (+.9), they would actually be the 3rd weakest team in the playoffs (counting even the teams in the East). The fact that they have 44 wins to this point means that they have great coaching, are pretty lucky, or both. My vote is for both. We KNOW George Karl can coach, when he isn’t freaking out, but I still think it’s inconceivable that a team out West with that point differential has 44 wins. It’s too tough a conference.
The talent is certainly there, and while I would love to not make the trite comparison of them to a M.A.S.H unit…..I must because they ARE comparable. However, they do have very good point guard play and Carmello Anthony has been playing out of his head recently. Typically the team with the best player in the series has a small advantage because individual greatness is important when you see the same team so often. I’m going to say that they would have the 2nd best shot of beating the Spurs, however I think they will hold on to the 6th seed and get slaughtered by the Suns in 5.
Projected Seed: 6th
Chances of 1st Round victory against #1 Seed: 15%
2-L.A. Lakers:
The Lakers cling to the 7th seed by the skin and skeletal frame of Kobe Bryant. I think that they have done a very good job being where they are, however, I think it’s pretty clear that if the Jazz had Carlos Boozer all year and the Sacramento Kings had Ron Artest, the Lakers would easily be out of the playoffs. That is, however, total speculation based on those teams’ winning % with the aforementioned players in the lineup.
To me this is a nightmare scenario for the Lakers. The Spurs and the Grizzlies are the 2 teams that I think would destroy the Lakers. Both those teams have strong inside play and can totally dictate tempo of the game. Again the small advantage they get by having the series’ best player is given away by the overall talent gap they have with the Spurs on defense and the fact that the Spurs are a well oiled machine, while the Lakers seem too disjointed at this point to make much of a noise. The odds of winning are only as high as they are because of the greatness of Bryant who can put any team on his back and have very very hot 2 week periods. It would take that (maybe even a bit more) for the L.A. Kobettes to scratch out a series win.
Interestingly, they would probably be the biggest beneficiaries if the circumstances played out where they dropped to 8 and the Mavericks rose to 1.
Projected Seed: 8th
Chances of 1st Round victory against #1 seed: 2%
3-Sacramento Kings:
In my mind this team is totally different with the addition of Ron Artest and I believe that this is the nightmare scenario for the Spurs. What you’re going to notice in my recap is that they have an obscenely good shot to win the series compared to the teams around them. The reason for this is their win % with Ron Artest which makes them essentially a very talented 4th seed with a 62% win percentage.
They have the right ingredients also to give the Spurs some trouble: They can play whatever pace the Spurs want to play; they have a wing defender, in Artest, to put on Ginobili should he be ready to play; they have a deep bench; they have a PG who can play Tony Parker straight up.
When you add the injuries to this I give them about the chance I would give a typical 4th seed against a typical 1st seed. However, I don’t think the team will be the 8th seed as I believe they will pass up the Lakers. While that’s too bad for the Mavericks I do think it will allow the Spurs to move on with ease in the first round as none of the other teams are a major threat to beat them. So, while the Kings would be the nightmare scenario for the Spurs, it looks like they will dodge them.
Projected Seed: 7th
Chances of 1st Round victory against #1 Seed: 35%
4-Utah Jazz:
The Jazz are in a similar position to the Kings. They got a strong piece of the puzzle back when Carlos Boozer joined the team after being out for what seemed like eons to Jazz fans. They have since made a mad dash for the playoffs with a balanced effort and with Jerry Sloan actually seeming to let Deron Williams take the reigns of the team, which is what he should have been given from the beginning anyhow.
While the team has been playing much better and would pose some serious problems for the Spurs because of its fantastic frontcourt, I can’t see a team with a rookie pg doing too much against the defending champs. Could a game plan be devised that would allow the bigs to make most of the plays and take pressure off the kid? Yes. However, it would revolve around controlling the pace and slowing the game down to a level that I think would actually help the Spurs. Their best shot at winning might be aiding the way the Spurs like to play, and that doesn’t help things out.
At the end of the day I give them a better shot of winning the series than I would the Lakers because they have a much better starting 5. While they lack the individual greatness of a Kobe Bryant they have the kind of frontcourt that would give any team problems and when you look at what a unique talent Kirlenko is it always seems like he’s having a huge impact on the team…even if he isn’t scoring the ball. With no experienced PG, and without being a great 3 point shooting team, the Jazz play into the Spurs hands and would get wiped out in what would probably be a series so boring it would make talking to your girlfriend about having kids seem more productive and exciting.
Projected Seed: N/A as they miss the playoffs.
Chances of 1st Round victory against #1 seed: 10%
5-Pick-a-city Hornets:
They have almost no shot of making the dance because they sit 3 games out with a week left. If a miracle did happen and they made the playoffs I would expect them to win a series around the time we could expect freezing conditions in hell. No disrespect to them or anything, but one has to be realistic.
Chris Paul has had a fantastic season and I have very little doubt that he will be a top 5 PG in due time, but its players just like him that the Spurs seem to be able to dominate in these types of situations. Finesse players who run hot and cold too often against good teams to do the kind of damage he will do later in his career.
The team has very little in the way of power big men, only David West can provide much of a scoring punch up front.
The Hornets would be the worst team in regards to Opp. FG% (45.6%), in the West, to make the playoffs. What makes that doubly harmful for them is that they would be the very worst scoring team to make the playoffs (92.9 ppg). It’s would be a recipe for domination.
Projected Seed: N/A as they miss the playoffs.
Chances of 1st Round victory against #1 seed: .5%
Eastern Conference
Things could get very ugly out east. Not only are the Pistons healthy, but the teams at the bottom of the playoff race are so mediocre that I’m not sure a single one of them would be favored to win a playoff round against a few teams in the West that won’t even make their side of the dance. Because seven teams could, in theory, make the 8th seed out in the East I’m going to simply break this down into subcategories: “Teams with almost no chance”, “Teams with slightly more than no chance”, and “Indiana Pacers”.
Again this isn’t disrespect. Disrespect is to try to convince people that a team is grossly worse than the statistical data, or team records, would indicate. I’m not going to do that in the slightest. All these teams deserve to be just where they are and they are all basically just as good as their records would indicate. However, when you put these teams up against the Pistons it isn’t even close. The only shot these teams have is if up is down, left is right, or the Piston’s team plane crashes into a mountain. (It’s been almost 5 years folks, are we allowed to make plane crash jokes yet!!! Jeez, relax)
Teams with almost no chance:
(All these teams have a less-than-5% chance of winning a 1st round series)
1-Washington Bullets:
Very interesting situation with the Bullets. They seem to be built exactly wrong to beat the Pistons, yet they have a very good season record against them. In those games Gilbert Arenas was able to do exactly what he wanted as the Pistons played at the Bullets’ pace and didn’t try to slow them down. My guess is that the warts of the team will show in a 7 game series and in a series built on adjustments the Pistons have an ability to adapt to what is being done that no team rivals. The Bullets are a one trick pony who can’t adjust and beat the Pistons in 7.
2-Milwaukee Bucks:
Raise your hand if you’re a bit disappointed in the Bucks this season? You too? On paper they look better than they actually are. A point guard who passes the ball, a deadly shooter, a couple of solid big men, a SF who can play just about anywhere and do just about anything. The most troubling thing about this season for me is how the parts have come together to make what appears to be a whole that is worse than the collection of pieces.
More was expected of #1 pick Andrew Bogut, but he doesn’t appear to be the problem as much as the problem is a defense that can’t stop people. The problem appears to be isolated to Jamal Magloire and TJ Ford as the team seems to defend better when those two are out of the lineup. The +/- of those two players seem to be some of the worst on the team and they play a heavy amount of minutes: both are over 60% the possible minutes played.
The Bucks certainly don’t want the Pistons because, unlike the Bullets, the Bucks have no position where they are clearly superior. Their best position is Mike Redd vs Rip Hamilton, but that’s closer to a draw than it is anything else. A win there for the Bucks is pretty slight, while the Pistons have huge advantages all over the court.
One would imagine this team will be better next year, but right now the team simply doesn’t do anything consistently enough to pose much of a threat.
3-Orlando Magic:
Give the Magic all the credit in the world here. They have wrapped up the season in a very impressive manner and are actually in the thick of the playoff race; this is something that seemed inconceivable earlier this year. They have won 5 games in a row and they have been over teams like the Pistons and the Heat.
However, before we can read into that too much it must be said that both the Pistons and Heat are basically done playing for playoff position and only the win over the Bucks can be considered a win that both teams needed. Much of the success can be attributed to the “playing out the string” theory. Still let’s give credit where it’s due.
The human cigar, Darko (don’t call him Zarko), Milicicicicic has been playing very well and is giving Magic fans something to be excited about for next year. In the words of Johnny Cougar, the team has also finally found a point guard that won’t dive ’em crazy. Jameer Nelson has been a revelation this season and it’s clear exactly why the Magic felt comfortable making the deal to pawn Steve Francis off on the hapless Knicks.
The problem in the playoffs would be a lack of offensive punch that would get in the way of winning 4 games out of 7. When your most consistent offensive player of late is Hedo Turkoglu, you’re in for some serious problems. Dwight Howard isn’t ready yet to shoulder much of an offensive burden, Tony Battie is lucky to have a job, and DeShawn Stevenson is…well….DeShawn Stevenson. Nice players all, but they are all essentially stop-gap players who will get paid until they get replaced.
Teams with slightly more than no chance:
(These teams have roughly a 10% chance of winning a 1st round series)
1-Philadelphia 76ers:
In a way they are the anti-Bullets (Wizards). On paper they appear to be one of the easiest matchups for the Pistons. They have the worst +/- of any team that would make the playoffs if they were help today. Also, it’s like nuke vs Hiroshima when these two teams meet. It’s a horrific slaughter with Detroit beating the 6ers like a drum.
However, the ‘6ers are strong exactly where the Bullets are weak. They have a strong defensive center, they have a tested playoff performer, they are a team that shouldn’t be intimidated by playing on the road, and they have a sidekick that can knows what it’s like to lead a team deep in the dance.
The series, of course, would be decided on how well Allen Iverson can control the pace of the games and how much he can create against Billups. The more havoc he can create on both sides of the ball, the better shot they have.
Of course they won’t win however. And they won’t win because the diminutive guard can’t defend anymore, because Chris Webber can’t move, and because they will give up too many points when the benches battle it out. They are also going to have a tough time with offensive rebounding….a real need with a guy who shoots it like A.I does. For the team to have any real shot, A.I. is going to have to play the best defense of his life, the team must limit 2nd chance points, and they must get quality games from Chris Webber all series.
I fully expect the “other” A.I., Andre Igoudala, to do nothing on offense. I also fully expect Kyle Korver to be shut down. The Pistons don’t scramble on defense and so the open shots for Korver will be few and far between.
In the final analysis this is a series also of coaching. There it’s simple: Mo Cheeks is wildly overrated (think The Who post Keith Moon), while Flip Saunders is wildly underrated.
2-Chicago Bulls:
The Bulls are a scrappy young bunch who could be slightly more than a speed bump for the Pistons, should they meet in the playoffs. They have a fantastic defense, cause several more turnovers than they give up, and do a solid job rebounding the ball. If anything they have the talent to even play slightly more up-tempo, but this is not the style of coach/czar Scott Skiles.
Also, if any team in the East can dictate tempo to the Pistons it might be the Bulls. They do a good job of rebounding that they can alter a teams pace and they take care of the ball enough that they can limit fast break points that other teams would need to open up the court.
The reason why they only have slightly more than no chance to win a first round series is because they lack the overall array of weapons that a team like the Pistons can bring to bare. At the end of the day you can’t bring a pop-gun to pistol fight, and the Pistons are a Death Star-like fully armed and operational.
This, however, would be a great learning experience for Hinrich, Gordon, and Deng as they would get a good view of what it looks like to take the next step in a team’s playoff evolution.
Indiana Pacers:
File this team under “enigma” because nobody is quite sure what we’re gonna get here. The one thing that we do know is that they must have a fully functioning Jermaine O’Neal to be competitive. So far he’s Yo-Yo Ma-ing up and down trying to get back in to the groove. The aspect of his return that’s a bit troubling is that his rebounding has been sub-par, even as his scoring has been pretty decent.
Peja Stojakovic and Stephen Jackson are the kinds of players that can probably give the Pistons some trouble, but both really need to have defenses sag off them to be most effective. They could get that if O’Neal justified double-teaming, but he doesn’t right now. While Jackson does have a solid playoff reputation, Stojakovic’s playoff reputation is as shaky as Tom Cruise’s grasp of reality. He’s never been the kind of guy that can lead a team anywhere in the playoffs and he’s the kind of player that the Pistons can stick Teyshuan Prince for to shut him down. That’s where Jermaine is needed most.
The bench is solid, though I’m still trying to figure out why I thought their acquisition of Sarunas Jasikevicius would make any kind of impact?! The bench play would be key in taking much of the Pistons depth-advantage away from them.
The reason they have the best shot of beating the Pistons, again let assume O’Neal can get back on track, is that they have a well-balanced offense that still has the star to take games over; they have diversity of pace in the same with that the Pistons do, and they have a coach who knows what he’s doing and will not be out-coached by the Flipper.
While I don’t see them getting the 8th seed (I see possibly 5th seed), I do give them a punchers 25% shot at winning a 1st round playoff series from the 8 spot.
The End
At the end of the day both #1 seeds are going to advance if history is any indicator. However, because the playoffs are such a matchup of styles some teams are gonna be much more competitive than others even as their records are similar. In my view the Spurs should want the Lakers and hope to avoid the Kings at all costs. Out east the Pistons do well to get the Bucks, Washington, or Orlando. They probably, however, would love to see the Pacers continue on in the 6th seed.
Go read my friends……
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