It’s that time of the year again. The time when people start making fun of the NBA because 53% of the teams make the playoffs and usually a portion of them have an under .500 record, which just deserves ridicule. Around this time of the year you also start talking about whether or not some teams might dog the last few games to get a more favorable matchup in the first round. As of today, teams are 79 or 80 games deep into their season with the top of the playoff picture well established. The bottom of the playoff picture is still a bit shady, but since they expanded the first round to 7 games, you can pretty much count off most of the bottom seeds.
I have tried to watch the NBA some this year. For the last 10 years or so I stopped watching because I couldn’t get myself to care anymore. I have always been a fan of the Los Angeles Lakers and yet I’ve never liked Kobe. Since Kobe joined the team, I have been apathetic toward the Lakers. When the Jordan era ended (and it ended in 1998) I really lost interest in the league. This year, there was too much to ignore: Kobe became a legitimate threat to drop 100 points on someone, watching Isiah Thomas continue to prove people who say “there’s nothing more he can do to this team” get proved wrong, watching Lebron and Carmelo figure out just how good they are, the outside chance Ron Artest will finally snap and DDT one of the officials through the scorers’ table. The NBA has become something worth watching again.
The only problem I have, at the moment, is I don’t have a team to follow. The Lakers are out because I dislike the franchise, following the Knicks is like going out of your way to become a Royals fan (except if Albert Bell was the Royals GM, he spent $250 million on players, and the Royals still only won 40 games), the Nets are in New Jersey and… well… that’s all the reason I need, the Celtics are in Boston and that would associate me with insane Boston fans. If the Nets move to Brooklyn, which has been a rumor since the team got bought 2 years ago, then I might actually have a team. Until then, I’m just watching the games completely detached.
That being said, let’s take a look at the playoffs.
Eastern Conference
As of today, the Pistons, Heat, and Nets will be the top 3 seeds, respectively, with the Cavs set to be the number 4 seed by about 11 games. The next four teams in the east are a mass of sub .500 messes. The Pacers, Bucks, Bulls, 76ers, Wizards, and Magic are all fighting for position in the last four spots. At the end, most of these last four seeds won’t matter. Out of those bottom six, none of them are beating the top 4 in a 7 game series. One of the biggest problems with the NBA’s 7-game first rounds is the fact there is almost no chance of an upset. So lets just skip the first round and move right to the second round.
Round 2
Detroit Pistons vs Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs are on fire. They’ve won 12 of their last 14. Their last three games are against the Wizards, the Celtics, and the Hawks. They are going to be entering the playoffs on fire and I fully expect them to take down the Wizards or Pacers in 5 or 6. Unfortunately for them they’re going to be running headlong into a team about to win a franchise record number of games. A team who’s entire starting five could have made the all-star game and who’s entire starting five one could make legit MVP arguments for this season. Lebron is good… really good… but he alone is not going to be able to take down an entire starting five. Bron may be good enough to score 40 or 50 in these games, and he’s definitely good enough to abuse lesser teams, but matched up against the Wallaces and Chauncey Billups, it won’t happen. The Cavs may make it look respectable against the Pistons, but in the end the Detroit All-Stars will be able take down the Cavs in six.
New Jersey Nets vs Miami Heat
On one side you have Shaq and Dwayne Wade. On the other side you have Jason Kidd and Vince Carter. The problem is: the Nets don’t have a real answer for playoff Shaq. Of course, I can use that argument against almost any team and it’s certainly the argument that gets the Heat through the first round of the playoffs. Presuming Wade is 100%, it’ll get the Heat through the second round, too. I like Jason Kidd, and following the Nets through their winning streak has been a trip, but at the end of the day they won the Atlantic, which is the equivalent to beating up four eight-year-olds. Sure you can do it, but no one is really impressed afterward. The Atlantic is pitiful, the Nets will be able to take another sub-500 team in the first round, but when they run into the Heat, it will be the end of the line. The Heat in seven.
Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons
It’s really hard for me to pick against Shaq. I like Shaq a lot. There’s also the small fact he happens to still be the best center in the league. Against the Pistons, though, there’s just not enough there.
Eastern Conference Champions: The Detroit Pistons
Western Conference
The Western Conference is a bit more complex. I mean, every playoff team actually has a winning record. The only real question left is whether the Lakers or the Kings will get the treat of playing the Spurs in the first round. As of today, it’s the Kings, and that’s where I’m going to work from.
Round 1
San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings
Fourth place in the Pacific division vs the top seed. Next. Spurs in five.
Denver Nuggets vs LA Clippers
When you look up the definition of “no playoff experience” you see a picture of a little boat leaving Los Angeles. Now that “other team” in LA has a chance to do something. I don’t think they came this far to dog it in the first round. The Daniels’ Upset Special sez: as much as I want to give it to ‘Melo, I’m giving it to the Clippers in six.
Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies
Dirk Nowitzki has made a decent MVP argument this season. Pau Gasol has a beard. Mavs in seven.
Phoenix Suns vs LA Lakers
Yes, Kobe is going to win the MVP this season. An 81-point game? Dropping half a hundred on a bad day? Kobe has what he wants in LA this season, an offense that runs through him. If you look at the Lakers’ past schedule, there are nearly no games in which Kobe isn’t the top scorer for the Lakers.
The problem is, this isn’t enough to win in the playoffs, and it really isn’t enough to beat a team with multiple options.
Before today, the Lakers hadn’t come within ten points of beating the Suns. As I write this, the Lakers beat the Suns 109-89 with Kobe going 11/28 and hitting 20/23 free throws. Minor fact: Steve Nash and Raja Bell didn’t play. Bell is 3rd ranked three-point shooter in the league and Nash is hub of the Suns’ offense. Kobe put up a minimum of 37 in the Lakers’ losses to the Suns. The Suns don’t need to contain Kobe; they just need to outscore him, and they actually have five guys to do it. If this was a five game series, it would be a harder pick. Suns in six.
Round 2
San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks
Dirk Nowitzki is the only All-star on the Maverick’s roster. The Spurs are full of them. I don’t think Nowitzki alone will be enough to challenge the Spurs through a whole series, but he’ll probably take over one or two games enough to make the series interesting. Spurs in six.
LA Clippers vs Phoenix Suns
A team with no playoff experience ever vs last year’s MVP? Nash is going to be able to pick this team apart in a long series. Suns in seven.
Western Conference Finals
San Antonio Spurs vs Phoenix Suns
The reigning champs vs the reigning MVP. I said before that Duncan has lost a step this year, and if anyone will be able to find a way to exploit it, it’s Steve Nash. That being said, the Suns went 1-3 against the Pistons in the regular season. Everything points to the Spurs beating the Suns and moving on to finals again; everything except a gut feeling that the Suns are going to pull this out somehow. I’m picking the Suns in seven.
Western Conference Champs: The Phoenix Suns.
NBA Finals
The Phoenix Suns vs The Detroit Pistons
This would make fitting NBA final matchup. It’s the two best all around teams in the league. All the guys on the floor are unselfish and do their best to make everyone else better.
But.
The Suns won 52 games (so far) in the Western Conference, the Pistons won 65 games (so far) in the East. Unfortunately, only four of the fifteen teams in the East are going to finish over .500 this season. In the Pistons’ division alone, three teams are set to finish .500 or below. Don’t get me wrong, a 60 win season is impressive no matter who you’re playing against, but the Pistons have had the benefit of a terrible division and an all around terrible conference this season. When they end up playing the Suns with everything on the line, the Suns are just going to have the benefit of playing against tougher competition all season. The finals go to the limit, but the end, Pistons in seven.
Quick Hits
- It’s two weeks into the season and the Mets’ budding superstar David Wright has struck out only once.
- Barry Bonds is batting .190 and still has yet to go yard this season. I watched him get pitched to with guys on first and second with no one out. When’s the last time you’ve seen that? Is the fear gone?
- Sinister Minister upset a ton of Kentucky Derby contenders in Bluegrass Stakes. No one is coming up as a favorite yet this year. Then again, without Jerry Bailey on a horse this year, who knows.
- Comedy Central really disappointed me with their pussying out this week.
Stuff that Happens in Manhattan
So I decided to start this weekly feature because I get to see things here every week that I bet most other people don’t get to see ever. Living in this city is like an ongoing show and by living here, you have a full time front row seat.
Weekend service to my neck of the island is spotty at best on the weekend. The “world’s best public transit system” has to get repaired, and weekends are just the time to do it. I’m waiting forever for an R train and, at some point, a tunnel rat* comes into the station. Said tunnel rat is drunk out of his mind and screaming and hollering, apparently loving the fact that the subway station is echoing.
Eventually, we get on the train, and because I am cursed, the fellow gets on my car. He is very upset because the tunnel stops echoing. I have to deal with this guy for about 10 stops. Sitting across from me is your complete Italian stereotype: mid-40s, tracksuit, gold chain, wife-beater, and chest hair aplenty. Mr. Italian puts up with Mr. Drunk for about four stops, then tells him to shut the f*ck up and calm down. Mr. Drunk decides he’s tough and stands up and tells Mr. Italian where he can stick his attitude. Mr. Italian tells him he’s sauced and he better watch his mouth.
One thing leads to another and Mr. Italian ends up holding Mr. Drunk’s head in the subway doors as the doors are trying to close. The doors on the subways won’t close with an obstruction, so the door just kept opening and closing on this guy’s temples. This was followed by a wedgie unlike anything I’ve ever seen. All the while this kid’s friends don’t quite know what to do, so they uncomfortably laugh at the situation. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on how you look at it) I got off the subway before I could see how this drama turned out.
See you next week.
