Sorry I’m late gang. With this past weekend being Easter, there was no time to write the column this weekend, then things kind of snowballed from there. But it’s Thursday Morning, and here I am. Choose Me. Love Me.
NFL NEWS!
The draft is in two weeks. Note to ESPN, stop hyping it so far in advance, you’re making me think it’s THIS weekend, when it’s not. Now I’ve got to go to the dentist or something gay like that on the day it’s actually on, because I thought it was on this weekend, and I’m going to miss all the good stuff. Thanks ESPN. Thanks for nuthin.
In keeping with the draft theme, allow me to confess, I don’t follow college football very closely. Neither of my alma maters (Bradley undergrad, DePaul MBA) even has a team, and the best team here in the Chicago area is Northwestern (Notre Dame if you reeeally want to stretch the definition of “Chicago Area”, but who wants to root for Notre Dame?), so college football is something I never really picked up on. That and 6 years of working with an NFL team and seeing people who were the cream of the college crop get tossed out the door every August has led me to not care very much about the college game. So, that in mind, here’s my kwazy prediction of how the first 10 picks will go:
1. Houston- Reggie Bush, RB, USC
Not the right choice, but the choice that will be made. The right choice would have been to cut bait on David Carr and start over with Matt Leinart, but that’s not going to happen. So they’ll draft Bush and struggle to somehow get him and Domanick Davis, their two best offensive players who are both running backs, the ball when they will be playing from behind most of the time, meaning they won’t be running.
2. New Orleans- TRADES 2nd overall pick to Oakland, Oakland selects Vince Young, QB, Texas
Al Davis is the only person insane enough to trade up to ensure he gets Dr. Vince Young and his 6 Wonderlic score. N.O. already has a QB, and nobody else warrants a #2 pick and #2 money, except Young and the next guy.
3. Tennessee- Matt Leinart, QB, USC
Leinart and Norm Chow together again. Steve McNair, sad. So very, very sad.
4. NY Jets- Mario Williams, DE, NC State
Conventional wisdom has the Jets trying to shore up their bad offense with tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson. I say, the offense is going to suck no matter what, so you may as well try and build on the kinda good defense you already have, then hope for a running back to fall into your lap next year. That means they take this pass rushing end to step in and replace the dearly departed John Abraham.
5. Green Bay- D’Brickashaw Ferguson, OT, Virginia
Whoever is going to end up as the Packers quarterback once Favre leaves will need somebody to give him time to throw, because in all likelihood, especially if he is Aaron Rodgers, he won’t be any good. Ferguson is the best player available at #5 and also fits that bill.
6. San Francisco- AJ Hawk, LB, Iowa
Mike Nolan’s a defensive guy, and the team took some hits to the linebacking corps in free agency, so Hawk makes sense here.
7. New Orleans Saints (from Oakland)- Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland
New QB Drew Brees and his noodle arm just luuuuuv to throw to the tight end, and a lot of people apparently think Davis has Antonio Gates-like ability.
8. Buffalo- Winston Justice, OT USC
Between him, AJ Hawk, and D’Brickashaw Ferguson, I am wondering why I can’t have a cool name.
9. Detroit- Jimmy Williams, CB, Virginia Tech
They don’t have the balls to pick Jay Cutler, not after the Joey Harrington atrocity. Williams and Dre Bly, in theory, should give the Lions a pair of good corners, which I guess gives them a good pair of something at least.
10. Arizona- Michael Huff, CB/S, Texas
With Edgerrin James signed to improve the terrible running game, pass defense is the Cards weakest area.
And I’m spent as far as that goes. Check back in two weeks to see how these turned out, and how the rest of the draft unfolded.
Here’s the rest of this week’s NFL News:
– WR Peerless Price has resigned with the Bills. Price left the Bills in 2003, forcing a trade to Atlanta, where he flopped worse than “The Magic Hour.” Now he has crawled back on hands and knees thru the “Supplicants” door.
– Steve McNair still can’t get into the Titans practice facility. He also reportedly was shocked to crawl into bed with his wife one night and find Matt Leinart already there, wearing McNair’s monogrammed bathrobe.
– LB LaVar Arrington is one of the few remaining big name free agents. He met with the Packers last week.
– The Pats signed 26 year old D lineman Richard Seymour to a 4 year, 30 million dollar extension. That’ll work out to over a 300% raise for him this year. I got 3% at my job, is that good?
– Trey Teague will replace Kevin Mawae in 06. The Jest signed the former Bills center last week. Yes, I said “Jest.” I’m so clever.
– The Vikings lost their leading sackman from last year, when Lance Johnstone, who led the team with 7 ½ last year, signed with Oakland, the team he began his career with. He and Derek Burgess (16 sacks in 05) could be a formidable pass rushing duo.
– Charles Rogers was reported this week as being “surprised” to still be a Detroit Lion. He was also “surprised” he was wearing pants.
I ALREADY KNOW WHAT YOUR TEAM WILL DO NEXT FALL
This week, our ongoing 2006 State of the NFL Address focuses on the AFC North, the home of the Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers. You remember the Super Bowl don’t you? THAT was an afternoon nobody will forget, all the pomp and pageantry of the big GAME. I remember it like it WAS yesterday. I also remember the delicious barbequed meatballs my friend’s wife FIXED as part of the delicious Super Bowl spread. MMMMM.
Do the Steelers have what it takes to defend their title? Will the Bengals rally around their recuperating quarterback and his robotic cyborg knee? How will that wacky Kyle Boller entertain us this year? And, how about the…uh…BROWNS! Thank God Lord Taglibooboo resurrected THEM from the dead, huh? Otherwise, we as football fans would have been deprived of all those magic Dennis Northcutt moments we’ve been treated to over the last 7 years. I will answer all these questions, and so many more.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Rushing Offense- 4.0 yards per carry, 15th in NFL (MEH)
Whether or not the Steelers should be concerned about their running game depends on whether or not Willie Parker is really as good as he looked at the beginning and end of last season. Fast Willie came out of nowhere to win the starting running back job, and stunned everyone with back to back 100 yard games to start the season. He pretty much tanked after that, until Week 16, when he posted 130 yards in a huge win over Cleveland, and a 135 against the Lions to clinch a playoff berth.
His playoff totals weren’t so hot. 16 carries, 38 yards against Cincy. 17-59 vs. Indy. 14-35 against Denver. 9-18 in the Super Bowl. Oh yeah, and he also broke a 75 yard TD run which turned the tide of that game, that I didn’t include in those totals. We know Parker’s a big play back, can he be a feature back on a team that relies heavily on the run for 16 games? That’s a legitimate question, because the Bus won’t be there as an insurance policy this year, and if it wasn’t for him, the Steelers wouldn’t have made the playoffs, and their lack of a running game would have been the main reason why.
Passing Offense- 8.19 yards per attempt, 1st in NFL (STRENGTH); 47 sacks allowed , 4th best in NFL (STRENGTH)
The Steelers dirty secret is that the reason they are good isn’t cause they are a blue-collar, dirt under the fingernails, gay steel mill running team. No. They won the Super Bowl last year because they had a fru-fru, airy fairy, vertical passing game which allowed them to make the big play when needed, and make the defense pay for not respecting their receivers. When the Steelers threw the ball, good things happened for them.
Antwaan Randle El may not have caught a lot of balls for the Steelers last year (35) but when he did, he made them count, evidenced by a 15.9 yards per catch average. He’s gone, having left for Washington via free agency, and will be replaced by last year’s #3 receiver, Cedrick Wilson. Wilson made a lot of big plays last year too, catching 26 passes with an average of 17.3 yards per catch. The Steelers are placing a big bet that he can be a #2 on a Super Bowl caliber team, which he hasn’t shown he can be so far.
Even with Randle El gone, there’s no shortage of targets for Ben Roethlisberger. The 3rd highest rated QB in the league last year still has Hines Ward, one of the best in the game, and promising young TE Heath Miller (459 yards, 6 TDs), to throw to. He also has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL protecting him. Only 3 teams fared better protecting their quarterback than the Steelers did last year.
Rushing Defense- 3.4 yards per attempt, 1st in NFL (STRENGTH)
No team was more difficult to run the ball against in 05 than the Steelers. It’s not a coincidence that they faced the NFL MVP, a running back, in the Super Bowl, held him in check, and won the big one. The 3 man line of Aaron Smith, Casey Hampton, and Brett Keisel are young enough that they should maintain their high level of performance (Smith is the oldest at 30) They lose Kimo von Oelhoffen to free agency, but they are deep on the line and should be able to absorb that loss.
James Farrior and Larry Foote provide stout run support from the linebacker position. Troy Polamalu’s hair gets him a lot of ink, and highlight show time, but he’s also pretty good in run support, ranking in the top 10 among safeties in tackles in 2005.
Passing Defense- 5.77 yards per attempt, 4th in NFL (STRENGTH); 47 sacks, 4th in NFL (STRENGTH)
When you think about Steeler football, you think of defense, and the Super Bowl Champs defense was pretty much as strong against the pass as it was against the run. CB Ike Taylor ranked tied for 3rd in the NFL with 20 passes defensed. You may have heard of the guys he was tied with, Ronde Barber and Deltha (10 INTS) O’Neal. Champ Bailey ranked second in that category. So Taylor didn’t get noticed last year because he only had one pick, but he was among the league’s best at his position. DeShea Townsend is solid on the other corner, Polamalu is one of the more exciting defensive players in the league at safety, and Ryan Clark, who had 3 picks last year with Washington, should provide a seamless transition at the other safety from the departed Chris Hope, although Hope was very strong in run support (90 tackles).
The pass rush is feared and comes at opposing quarterbacks from every conceivable angle. Whether it’s Polamalu or Townsend blitzing from the secondary, or Joey Porter and Clark Haggans (ranked 1st and 3rd respectively in sacks among NFL linebackers in 05). The Steelers’ relentless pass rush is the reason they were able to shock the world and beat the Colts in the playoffs, and it should again be one of the best in the league in 06.
Kicking Game- 82.8% FG Accuracy, 14th in NFL (MEH)
Jeff Reed has been steady for a few years kicking in the very tricky Heinz Field. He’s above 80%, which will keep your job safe in the NFL.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
When you’re the defending Super Bowl champions, and your biggest worry is replacing Antwaan Randle El, then things are pretty damn good. The Steelers are strong in just about every area. They are also, unexpectedly, in a pretty interesting draft position. Even though they pick last, there aren’t any running backs outside of Reggie Bush who will be taken at the beginning of the draft, nor are there any wideouts that will go early. This might allow them to add needed depth at those skill positions in the first round.
The Steelers have a great chance to successfully defend their Super Bowl title. They’ll head into the playoffs as AFC North champs.
The Greatest Asian Wide Receiver”¦.EVER
Cincinnati Bengals
Running Game- 4.2 yards per attempt, 10th in NFL (STRENGTH)
The Bengals have an embarrassment of riches on offense, and the running back position is no exception. Rudi Johnson is a horse. He should be entering the prime of his career at 27 years old, and last year he carried for 1458 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. His backup, Chris Perry, is another dangerous player and a great insurance policy. Perry is fast and versatile. He averaged 4.6 yards a carry last year, and had 328 receiving yards. Nobody in the AFC North is stronger in the running game than the Bengals, and that includes the Steelers.
Passing Game- 7.32 yards per attempt, 7th in NFL (STRENGTH); 21 sacks allowed, 2nd best in NFL (STRENGTH)
Carson Palmer is awesome, but the Bengals laissez-faire attitude towards finding somebody who can play quarterback if Palmer’s gruesome knee injury keeps him from playing next year is alarming. The backup as of this writing is Doug “Sling” Johnson, and if he has to play, the Bengals have a problem. There’s no problem on the offensive line. Right tackle Willie Anderson is among the league’s elite, and Levi Jones, Eric Steinbach, and Rich Braham are all solid.
Then there’s the receiving corps. Specifically, there’s Chad Johnson. 28 years old, 97 catches for 1432 yards last year, 9 TDs. What else do you need to know? Whenever the Bengals offense steps on the field, he’s their best player among a lot of good players. TJ Houshmandzadeh is a solid complement, and came up just short of a 1000 yard season himself last year. Antonio Chatman was signed from Green Bay and is a solid addition. He had 549 yards and 4 touchdowns last year, which, if you’re scoring at home, is better than Antwaan Randle El numbers last season.
Rushing Defense- 4.3 yards per attempt, 26th in NFL (WEAKNESS)
And then, there’s the defense. I’ve written before that you should be very familiar with the Bengals, since they’re a virtual rerun of the Colts teams we saw in the early part of the decade. The defense was a horror show last year, and if it wasn’t for their lone saving grace of having a knack for creating turnovers, they probably would have kept that world-class offense from making a playoff appearance. It wasn’t for lack of talent at the linebacker position though, specifically MLB Odell Thurman. The team’s 05 second round draft pick was better than anyone could have predicted. He had 106 tackles, 5 sacks, and 5 forced fumbles. He will be the leader of the defense for years to come, which means that this year, the responsibility of making this bad unit better falls on him. The team signed DT Sam Adams, a veteran run stuffer, to try and plug the gaping hole in the middle of their D line. Adams is old though, and probably on the downside of his career. We’ll see how much he helps. Safety Dexter Jackson is known for his physicality and will provide run support.
Pass Defense- 6.89 yards per attempt, 29th in NFL (WEAKNESS); 28 sacks, 28th in NFL (WEAKNESS)
The run defense was bad, the pass defense was even worse. Deltha O’Neal had 10 interceptions, but the numbers say the Bengals ranked 4th worst in the league in pass defense, so that means as their number one corner he was part of the problem. Tory James is not aging well at the other corner. Still, the secondary isn’t as woefully inadequate as the numbers might imply. The defensive line, however, is. They provided no pass rush last year, outside of DE Justin Smith’s so-so 6 sacks, and opposing quarterbacks took their sweet time to pick apart the Bengals defense. Outside of Adams, who’s not a pass rusher, the team hasn’t done anything to upgrade this area, so you could see more of the same in this area in 06.
Kicking Game- 87.5% FG Accuracy, 8th in NFL
Shayne Graham has turned into one of the league’s best. He’s very accurate, with his only possible shortcoming being he didn’t hit a field goal from outside of 50 yards last year. He’s done it in the past though.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
Let’s say, for shits and giggles, that Carson Palmer will be healthy next year. And, at this point, that’s a really big IF. Even IF he’s healthy and able to play 16 games, the defense is still bad. Which is really surprising given who their head coach is, and the talent they have at linebacker. But it takes 11 players to have a strong defense, not 3. The defensive line is among the worst in the league, and the secondary is shaky even if they make plays. The Bengals haven’t done enough to address the weaknesses that got them bounced in the first round of last year’s playoffs, and they’ll struggle to return there in the improving AFC North. They’ll get back to the playoffs, but there won’t be a home game this time, and once again there won’t be a win.
The Bengals Better Hope He Heals
Baltimore Ravens
Running Game- 3.6 yards per attempt, 26th in NFL (WEAKNESS)
The Joint, apparently, was not kind to Jamal Lewis. After serving a brief prison sentence last year, Lewis was not the same running back he was prior to being sent up the river. He averaged a paltry 3.4 yards per carry (versus an eye-popping 5.3 just 2 years prior), lost 5 fumbles, and only found the end zone 3 times. Lewis is too young to have irretrievably fallen off the edge of the Earth, so there’s reason to believe he can rebound this season. If he doesn’t, Mike Anderson, who carried for 1014 yards and 12 touchdowns as a Bronco last year, will take his job.
Passing Offense- 6.02 yards per attempt, 28th in NFL (WEAKNESS); 42 sacks allowed, 22nd best in NFL (WEAKNESS)
The Ravens continue to wait for the messy divorce proceedings between Steve McNair and the Titans to become final, so they can get all over that like the sluts that they are. It’s either that or waste another season waiting for the mass of suck that is Kyle Boller to stop sucking. Boller missed most of last season with a toe injury, and was picked off 12 times versus 11 TD passes. The reality of the situation is, Boller is most certainly a decent backup quarterback, but he’s not a starter. Not now, maybe not ever, and the Ravens have wasted their window of opportunity to win a second Super Bowl waiting for him to get it. They missed on him. Time to move on.
Derrick Mason is a solid #1 receiver. He had 1073 yards last year (which isn’t easy to do when Anthony Wright and Kyle Boller are throwing the ball at you), and 3 TDs. He also was Steve McNair’s number one receiver for the best years of McNair’s career, so there’s that interesting connection should McNair become a Raven. Mark Clayton starts on the other side. He had a pretty decent rookie year in 05, with 471 yards and 2 TDs. The line struggled last year. They’ve played together for a long time, so there really is no explanation for it except maybe they’re getting old. 4 of the 5 starters will be 32 this season.
Rushing Defense- 3.7 yards per attempt, 7th in NFL (STRENGTH)
The Ravens’ defense remains one of the best in the league. DT Kelly Gregg did a great job plugging up the middle last year, ranking 7th in the league amongst defensive tackles with 61 stops. The team lost another tackle, Maake Keomatu, to free agency, but signed Justin Bannan from Buffalo to replace him, and his numbers were almost identical last year. DE Terrell Suggs makes plays all over the field, as evidenced by the 69 tackles that ranked him 6th among defensive ends last season.
Ray Lewis is the middle linebacker when he’s healthy, and happy, but those occurrences are less and less frequent. When he’s not in the lineup, Bart Scott fills in ably. He had 92 tackles last season.
Pass Defense- 5.64 yards per attempt, 2nd in NFL (STRENGTH); 42 sacks, 8th in NFL (STRENGTH)
This is where the Ravens defense really excels. They have no shortage of great athletes on defense. Suggs had 8 sacks and 2 interceptions last season. Adalius Thomas brought good pressure from the linebacker position last season, leading the team with 9 sacks. The secondary remains one of the best in the league. Cornerbacks Chris McAllister and Samari Rolle are both high quality, even if they combined for only 2 interceptions last year. Ed Reed is one of the best at free safety, but the team has a hole at the other safety position, which wasn’t addressed in free agency. This could be an area that’s targeted in the draft.
Kicking Game- 88.2% FG Accuracy, 6th in NFL (STRENGTH)
Matt Stover has been the Ravens kicker since they were the original Cleveland Browns, if you can believe that, and at 88% accuracy, he ain’t going anywhere.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
The Ravens will be better in 06 than they were last year. Injuries and the unique Jamal Lewis situation scuttled their season in 05, and they shouldn’t have to deal with those issues this year.
If the Ravens can manage to get McNair in their uniform, they’re going to a lot better. The team’s insistence to try and make something of Kyle Boller has seemed to suck the life out of the rest of the team, and has resulted in a couple of wasted seasons. With a guy who was NFL Co-MVP only 3 years ago at quarterback, the veterans on both sides of the ball that have become discouraged and burnt out in recent years could be rejuvenated. I say, 10-6 and a possible wildcard berth with McNair, 7-9 without.
This Explains Why Boller Sucks
CLEVELAND BROWNS
Rushing Offense- 3.8 yards per carry, 23rd in NFL (WEAKNESS)
For the first time since their reincarnation, the Browns have a viable feature back. Reuben Droughns came over from Denver and rushed for 1232 yards last season, an average of 4 yards per carry. The offensive was suspect though, as evidenced by the fact that the Browns ranked 23rd in yards per carry, and 22nd in sacks allowed. They’ll have two new starters on that line this year in free agent signees Kevin Shaffer and LeCharles Bentley, so look for some improvement in the running game.
Passing Offense- 6.68 yards per attempt, 17th in NFL (MEH); 46 sacks allowed, 27th in NFL (WEAKNESS)
Charlie Frye outperformed all of the quarterbacks drafted ahead of him in 05. The 3rd round pick out of Akron took over the starting job midway through the season, and posted a not-disastrous 72.8 rating (as opposed to first overall pick Alex Smith’s 40.8 rating and late first round pick Aaron Rodgers’ perfect clipboard holding rating). Frye will be challenged this season by the loss of last year’s top receiver, Antonio Bryant. Bryant had 1000 yard season last year. Bryant’s departure means somebody who’s never been a #1 receiver yet in their NFL career will have to step up and be one. The most likely candidates free agent signee Joe Jurevicius, who caught 55 passes and scored 10 TDs for Seattle last year, and second year player Braylon Edwards, who was the third pick in the 05 draft and had 512 yards and 3 TDs last season.
The wildcard in all this is tight end Kellen Winslow, who was the 6th overall pick in 2004, but has missed all of both his NFL seasons with injuries. If he’s healthy, he can be the most dangerous weapon the Browns have.
Rushing Defense- 4.2 yards per attempt, 23rd in NFL (WEAKNESS)
The Browns d-line is old, but they hope that they can give them what they didn’t last year, an ability to stop the run. Orpheus Roye led all defensive linemen in the league last year with 88 tackles. That’s good, but part of that is probably due to teams having more chances to run at him than at other guys. Cleveland signed ancient run stopping Buddha Ted Washington to try and firm up the middle of their 3-4 defense. If he has something left at 38 years old, he didn’t show it his last 2 seasons in Oakland. LB Andra Davis is the leader of the defense, he’s a good one, and the Romeo Crennel will try to build his defense around him. The Browns lost their top run supporting safety, Chris Crocker, who signed with Atlanta. Second year player Brodney Pool will be tapped to take his place.
Pass Defense- 6.1 yards per attempt, 10th in NFL (STRENGTH); 23 sacks, 32nd in NFL
Let’s hear it for the Browns’ secondary. They somehow ranked 10th in yards per attempt last year despite the team having the WORST pass rush in the NFL. An extra big pat on the back goes to unheralded corner Leigh Bodden, a 3rd year corner out of Duquesne who was pressed into duty last year, and finished among the league leaders in passes defensed in addition to having 3 interceptions.
The Browns made a big signing to try and give that secondary some help, inking longtime Pats linebacker Willie McGinest. McGinest is at the end of his career, but he had 6 sacks last year, and he instantly is the best pass rusher the Browns have. They still need help in this area though, and may look for it in the draft.
Kicking Game- 93.1% FG Accuracy, 2nd in NFL
Phil Dawson had the best year of his career, nailing 27 out of 29 field goal attempts. He’s also 5 out of 6 from 50+ in his career. He’s good yo.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
The Browns signed some pretty big names this offseason. Jurevicius, McGinest, and LeCharles Bentley were some of the bigger fish in the free agent pond. Unfortunately, the team is still weak in all the wrong areas. The offensive line may be improved, but it was bad last year, so at best it goes from bad to OK. The defensive line is terrible, and Ted Washington isn’t the answer. McGinest was asked to do one thing in New England, go get the quarterback, and the Browns don’t have enough good players out on the field to have a guy that does only one thing well. The Browns, from where I’m sitting, are clearly the weakest team in the division headed into 2006.
Start Inhalin’ Braylon
So, there you go. I’ve got the Ravens rated slightly better than the Bengals. I must be nuts. But the numbers, they don’t lie, and they ALWAYS catch up with you. The Bengals defense sucked last year, and it doesn’t look a whole lot better this year. You heard here first, they will take a step back this year.
SOUVENIRS, NOVELTIES, PARTY TRICKS
That’s it for me this week, check out the rest of IP Sports:
Patrick has IP Sports Radio..which I am going to be ON very, very soon.
Trent blows in your cartridge and gives you the top 10 NES sports games of all times.
Phil names his NBA MVP..who is it??? WHO????
That’s it! See ya next week”¦MONDAY”¦with the NFC South.
