Hootie Hooooo. We’re less than a week away from the draft. Next week, we’re going to have a LOT to talk about. This week, we have a little to talk about, so let me hit you in the face with some NFL news why don’t ya.
NFL NEWS!
– Ravens’ linebacker Ray Lewis wants out of Baltimore. He’s been campaigning hard in the media for a trade, and with draft day less than a week away, don’t be surprised if the team accommodates him this week. Lewis has repeatedly made it unhappy that he has lost faith in the Ravens organization’s competence and the lack of passion shown by his teammates in recent years.
– While one disgruntled linebacker seeks a new home, another has found one. Former Redskin LB LaVar Arrington signed with the NY Giants. The deal is heavy on incentives but could pay him as much as $49 million over 7 years.
– Bills’ owner Ralph Wilson has been lamenting that having an NFL team in Buffalo is no longer feasible under the league’s new labor agreement. Most reacted by pointing out the Bills haven’t played like an NFL team in over 10 years. Bah dum bum.
– The Bears signed CB Ricky Manning from the Carolina Panthers to a five year, $21 million offer sheet. Manning celebrated by getting arrested on suspicion of assault in LA this past weekend. Way to go Bears.
– In more wacky Bears news, rumors have been swirling that the team has been in discussions with the Indianapolis Colts to trade running back Thomas Jones. Jones rushed for 1335 yards and 9 TDs last year. Bears management will not rest until the team sucks again!
– With Carson Palmer’s injury status still up in the air, the Bengals needed a quality backup. This week they signed former Ravens QB Anthony Wright, and still need a quality backup.
– All indications are the Dolphins will be acquiring QB Joey Harrington from the Lions. Good luck with that.
– One player who may be involved in a trade as draft day approaches is disgruntled Packers WR Javon Walker. They are dangling him. Just dangling him I tells ya!
– The Jets bad running back situation got worse when Cedric Houston broke his wrist in a one-car auto accident last week. Houston was the team’s starting running back by the end of last year, after Curtis Martin broke down.
– Seahawks RB and NFL MVP Shaun Alexander is the cover boy for Madden 07. Boy is he in trouble.
– Rumors are hot and heavy that Chargers stud linebacker Donnie Edwards could be traded before the draft. Edwards is said to be at the center of a power struggle within the Chargers organization between coach Marty Schottenheimer (a big fan of Edwards), and GM AJ Smith (not so big a fan). Edwards ranked 4th among NFL linebackers with 154 tackles last year, and tied for second among linebackers with 11 passes defensed.
– Mike Holmgren was PISSSSED that the Seahawks allowed All Pro guard and restricted free agent Steve Hutchinson to leave for Minnesota without any compensation. Holmgren told the Seattle Post Intelligentser “”We (Holmgren and Seahawks officials) sat down after that. That won’t happen again.” The mess up has said to have been a tipping point for Holmgren, who many feel wants to return to having a dual role of coach and GM.
– Tampa signed former Jets FB Jerald Sowell.
Ray Isn’t Feeling the Ravens’ Pain
I ALREADY KNOW WHAT YOUR TEAM WILL DO NEXT FALL
So here we are, at the halfway point of our weekly division by division 2006 preview, and what have we learned? A quick recap:
NFC EAST
A suspect Dallas defense means the Giants and Redskins slug it out for the division title. Philly brings up the rear, as the devil has collected on their deal with TO.
AFC EAST
Culpepper and a top notch defense give Miami the edge. New England has too many holes they have not filled, and will miss the playoffs. Buffalo and the Jets in for rough seasons, although Buffalo won’t struggle quite as badly.
NFC NORTH
It’s the Bears division to lose. Minnesota is painstakingly average in every area, but in this division that’s not so bad. They’ll finish second. Green Bay and Detroit both will have top 10 draft picks in 07.
AFC NORTH
There’s no reason why Pittsburgh can’t repeat, except maybe the lack of a proven running back. Cincinnati hasn’t done enough to shore up a bad defense. Baltimore has a chance to sneak into second place and a possible wildcard berth if they can come up with something better than Kyle Boller at quarterback. Cleveland is making strides, but they are still weakest in this division.
And that brings us up to speed, and readies us for this week’s case study, the NFC South.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Running Game- 3.4 yards per carry, 30th in NFL; WEAKNESS
It’s official. The Panthers have proposed to, married, and consummated their relationship with DeShaun Foster. He was signed to an extension this offseason, Stephen Davis was released, and now Foster is the team’s feature back for better or worse. He averaged 4.3 yards a carry last season, which considering the Cats as a team averaged only 3.4, is really good. He is 28 years old and has only 377 career carries, so he’s experienced but has fresh legs. He’s been injury prone throughout his career though, and the Panthers may be kidding themselves to think he can be a #1 back. If he gets hurt, Nick Goings is the next in line. He’s been successful in most of his opportunities with Carolina, and gives the team a decent option in the event Foster goes down. One thing’s pretty certain, the Panthers shouldn’t rank 30th in the league in yards per carry again this year. They’ll be better in this area.
Passing Game- 7.75 yards per attempt, 4th in NFL, STRENGTH; 28 sacks allowed, 9th in NFL; STRENGTH
Steve Smith returned the game after missing all of 2004 with an injury, and was absolutely insane. He had 1563 yards and 12 TDs in the regular season, and in the Panthers two playoff wins had 22 catches for 302 yards and 3 TDs. That’s a whole seasons work for a lot of people. Now the Panthers have a viable receiver on the other side of him in free agent signee Keyshawn Johnson, so, on paper, Smith should be even more terrifying this year. Keyshawn caught 71 balls for 839 yards last year, and if he can remain an asset rather than a distraction (which is hard for him when Bill Parcells is not his coach), he’s a great pickup. QB Jake Delhomme throws a few too many interceptions, but he’s a winner and probably one of the top 10 at his position in the league. Foster is also a dangerous receiver out of the backfield, and he can make defenses pay for doubling on Smith by exposing the holes left open in the defense.
The offensive line did a good enough job pass blocking last year, but there will be some turnover this year, as Jeff Hartwig moves to center to replace Jeff Mitchell, and Evan Mathis takes over the right guard position from Tutan Reyes.
Rushing Defense- 3.6 yards per attempt, 6th in NFL, STRENGTH
Last year the Panthers won a pair of playoff games on the road against teams whose bread and butter was running the ball, the Giants and the Bears. A lot of that was due to it being so difficult to run the ball outside against ends Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker. The Panthers moved to strengthen the interior of the line as well by signing former Ravens run stuffer Make Kemoeatu, who was a highly sought after free agent. They’ll need his added support, because the defense lost its two leading tacklers from last season in free agency. Linebacker Will Witherspoon and safety Marlon McCree are both gone.
Pass Defense- 5.79 yards per attempt, 5th in NFL, STRENGTH; 45 sacks, 7th in NFL, STRENGTH
Witherspoon’s loss will also be felt in pass defense. He was tops in the league last year among linebackers in passes defensed. The last line of defense is solid though. Ken Lucas and Chris Gamble are an excellent pair of corners. Gamble had 7 picks last year and Lucas had 6. Thomas Davis was a first round pick last year and will step into McCree’s safety role. Peppers and Rucker are one of the more formidable pass rushing duos in the league and combined for 18 sacks last year.
Kicking Game- 76.5% FG Accuracy, 23rd in NFL, WEAKNESS
Jon Kasay’s accuracy wasn’t very good last year, but a lot of that was due to the Panthers having him attempt 8 field goals from outside of 50 yards, of which he made 3. Still, he was only 6 of 9 from 40-49, and that’s not so good either. His strength has always been the ability to dial long distance, at the expense of midrange accuracy, and that’s still the case.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
If the Panthers can get the kind of production they are expecting from DeShaun Foster, they’ll be golden. They are solid in every area except for the running game, and if Foster can replicatee his performance in a co-starring role in 05 as the headliner in 06, the running game will be solid too. The offensive line’s state of flux is a little bit bothersome, but not enough to cause any real concern. The Panthers exited last season as the second best team in the NFC, and they’ll be within striking distance of a second Super Bowl appearance again this year too.
Dangerous Duo
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Running Game- 4.0 yards per attempt, 12th in NFL, MEH
Any doubts anybody had about Cadillac Williams heading into last years draft were immediately buried when, despite having somebody from his college team that played the same position as him drafted ahead of him, he rushed for over 100 yards in each of his first 3 NFL games. Then those doubts were exhumed, reconstituted, and revived when he missed the next two games with a foot injury and didn’t rush for more than 30 yards ina game again until Week 11. He finished the season strong though, and he’s in the upper tier of NFL running backs heading into his second season. If he gets dinged up again, Michael Pittman is a more than adequate replacement.
Passing Game- 6.52 yards per attempt, 19th in NFL, MEH; 41 sacks allowed, 20th in NFL, WEAKNESS
Chris Simms and Brian Greise split quarterbacking duties last year, with Simms taking over after Greise went with a season ending injury. The two put up remarkably similar numbers, with Simms ending up slightly better (81.4 rating v. 79.6, 10/7 TD/INT v. 7/7). Simms, at this point in his career, looks competent, but no better than that. He also has a questionable corps of receivers with which to work with and a shaky offensive line. Joey Galloway found the fountain of youth and was amazing last season, scoring 10 TDs and gathering 1287 yards. Both totals were more than he had done in the last 2 seasons combined, and his history of brittleness and his advancing age make it unlikely (but not impossible) that he’ll repeat that 05 performance. That means the team needs a lot more out of 3rd year receiver Michael Clayton this year. Clayton followed up his eye popping 1193 yard rookie season with a dud of a sophomore year in which he had only 372 yards. TE Alex Smith and Pittman combined for 77 catches last year and provide a couple of nice ancillary weapons.
Rushing Defense- 3.5 yards per attempt, 2nd in NFL, STRENGTH
Make no mistake, the Bucs were good last year because of their defense. Linebackers Derrick Brooks and Shelton Quarles made plays all over the field, and both ranked in the top 15 in the league in tackles among linebackers. Chris Hovan also was a pleasant surprise in the interior of the defensive line, as few defensive tackles were better than him against the run last year. As long as the defense plays anywhere near the way they played last year, the Bucs will be in the playoff hunt.
Pass Defense- 6.14 yards per attempt, 12th in NFL, MEH; 36 sacks, 18th in NFL, MEH
While the Bucs were impermeable against the run, they were pretty ordinary against the pass. Ronde Barber is still one of the league’s best at one corner. He had 20 passes defensed last year, tied for 3rd among NFL corners. His running mate, Brian Kelly, is also high quality. Will Allen was signed from the Giants and should be as good as or better than the departed Dexter Jackson. The problem may lie in the lack of a pass rush. Outside of Simeon Rice, who had 14 sacks last year, nobody else on the Bucs had more than 4. If Rice isn’t putting heat on the QB, nobody else is, and it’s putting pressure on the rest of the defense to stay with their assignments.
Kicking Game- 84.0% FG Accuracy, 10th in NFL, STRENGTH
Matt Bryant won the job in training camp last year, and had a pretty good year. He missed a couple of gimmes, but was 10-11 from 40-49 yards, and that’s usually where kickers will win or lose a game for you.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
The Bucs are thoroughly outclassed by the Panthers right now, and they won’t win the NFC South. Their offense is plagued by inconsistency, and their defense, while good as far as giving up yardage, doesn’t make game changing plays (they were one of only a handful of teams not to take an INT back for a touchdown last year). The NFC is weak though, and they’ll be one of a large group of teams fighting for a wildcard spot.
Brooks Heads Up a Stifling D
ATLANTA FALCONS
Running Game- 4.8 yards per attempt, 1st in NFL, STRENGTH
Running the ball will always be a strength for the Falcons. Not just because they have 1 very good running back, and another to get some carries and keep him fresh, but because they have another running back who happens to be taking the snaps. And that’s what he is folks, no matter what way you want to try and tell me that Michael Vick is revolutionizing the position and dur de dur de dur, he’s a running back and as long as that’s what he wants to be that’s all he will ever really bring to the table. When he runs, he averages 5.9 yards a carry. When any NFL quarterback throws the ball, he averages at least that much per pass attempt. So, yeah, a Michael Vick 6 yard run may be a LOT more exciting than watching Jake Delhomme throw a dump off pass to DeShaun Foster, but in the end it’s the same result. Warrick Dunn also averaged over 5 yards a carry last year, and had the best year of what’s been a very good NFL career. He’s still under 2000 carries for his career, so even though he’ll be 31 heading into this season he’s still got mileage left and should continue to be effective.
Passing Game- 6.44 yards per attempt, 21st in NFL, WEAKNESS; 39 sacks allowed, 18th in NFL, MEH
Michael Vick’s passer rating of 73.1 ranked him squarely between Josh McCown and Brooks Bollinger on the NFL leader board. Let’s give him the benefit of the doubt though, and count ALL of his 102 rushes for 597 yards as complete forward passes, raising both his . I would say that’s pretty generous, no? Ok, so that raises his rating to 80.7, which puts him between Chris Simms and Kerry Collins. One of those guys was benched for Marcus Tuiasososososopoopoo at one point last year, and is unemployed now. If I were the Falcons, I would trade this fool for the rights to draft Matt Leinart, or Vince Young, TODAY. The Falcons will never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever get to a Super Bowl with Vick as their quarterback. He gets worse every year, because he has no interest in getting better. He only has an interest in playing the way he wants to play, which is not the way quarterbacks who have Super Bowl rings on their fingers play.
Rushing Defense- 4.7 yards per attempt, 32nd in NFL, WEAKNESS
What happened here? LAST in the NFL in yards per carry on defense? I wonder if that has ever happened before, where a team was first in the league in yards per carry on offense, and last in that category on defense. Has that ever happened? I don’t know. Especially with one of the better defensive tackles in the game in Rod Coleman, and a pretty good defensive end in Patrick Kerney, how does this happen? Keith Brooking and Demorrio Williams are pretty decent linebackers too, but there it is, last in the league, the numbers don’t lie. The team signed tough guy safety Lawyer Milloy to try and shore up this area, but, you know, he’s a safety, by the time the ball carrier gets to him you’re kind of effed anyway.
Passing Defense- 5.96 yards per attempt, 8th in NFL, STRENGTH; 37 sacks, 17th in NFL, MEH
DE John Abraham was the Falcons’ big offseason acquisition, and he instantly makes the pass rush a lot better. He had 10 ½ sacks last year, and is also not a liability against the run. In the secondary, the Falcons have a good one in D’Angelo Hall, who had 6 interceptions in his second NFL season. Milloy is definitely stronger against the run than the pass, but anything is an upgrade over the subpar safeties the Falcons had last year. Abraham should improve the pass rush, and the benefits will trickle down thru the whole pass defense.
Kicking Game- 92% FG Accuracy, 5th in NFL; STRENGTH
Todd Peterson was very accurate last season, hitting 23 of 25 field goals. His longest was from 43 yards though, so take into account that he didn’t have very many challenging assignments.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
The Falcons have to be better against the run this year, or any talk of returning to the playoffs is out of the question. The additions of the veterans Milloy and Abraham can only help the defense. That leaves the offense and Vick as the big question marks. You hear over and over again that you can’t measure Vick by the same stats you use to measure other quarterbacks, but as you read earlier, I just did. Even with he’s running fully credited to him he’s still a lower tier NFL quarterback. The rest of the team is pretty solid though, so expect the Falcons to duke it out with the Bucs, Cowboys, and Vikings for a wildcard spot.
100% Hype
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Rushing Offense- 4.0 yards per carry, 18th in NFL; MEH
Last year, the running game was symbolic for the Saints’ lost season as a whole. Deuce McAllister got injured, they were forced to feature Antowain Smith and Aaron Stecker, and that was that. They lost the one player they couldn’t afford to lose and after that there was no hope. The Saints won’t be caught in that same dire situation again this year. Deuce will be back, and if he goes down again, the Saints signed former Viking Michael Bennett to back him up. The running game will be improved.
Passing Offense- 6.51 yards per attempt 20th in NFL; WEAKNESS; 41 sacks allowed, 19th in NFL, MEH
For the first time this decade, somebody other than Aaron Brooks will be the Saints starting quarterback. Drew Brees comes over as a free agent from the Chargers. There are plenty of questions surrounding the status of his wounded shoulder, and plenty of speculation that he is a stopgap while the team cultivates Matt Leinart or Vince Young with its #1 draft pick this year. Assuming Brees is healthy, he’ll have a good receiving unit to work with, much better than what he had in San Diego. Joe Horn is consistently one of the league’s best wideouts, although last year was not a good one for him. Dante Stallworth picked up a lot of the slack and just missed having his first 1000 yard season. The offensive line was adequate last year, but they’ll have to compensate for the loss of LeCharles Bentley, who was the anchor of the line and left via free agency. It will be up to the very talented Jammal Brown, who played very well after being the 13th player taken in the 05 draft, to be the new leader of the O line.
Rushing Defense- 4.3 yards per carry, 27th in NFL, WEAKNESS
The Saints run defense was bad last season, and until they can find somebody to adequately play the MLB position, it will probably continue to be, in fact, the linbacking corps is pretty average across the board. The defensive line has some talent, in particular defensive ends Will Smith and Charles Grant, who are effective against both the run and the pass.
Passing Defense- 6.82 yards per attempt, 27th in NFL, WEAKNESS; 25 sacks, 31st in NFL, WEAKNESS
The Saints have one pass rusher, and that is Will Smith, and even he only had 8 ½ sacks last season. Nobody else on the team had more than 4. The corners, Mike McKenzie and Fred Thomas, are both over 30, and both are little more than adequate, although Thomas showed some ability that up until last year hadn’t been on display. There’s just nothing on the Saints defense to get excited about.
Kicking Game- 78.1 % FG Accuracy, 20th in NFL; WEAKNESS
John Carney is 42 years old, and he didn’t have a very good year last year. Unless he’s going to be kicking into his 50s, he’s probably in irreversible decline, and it’s probably time to find someone else.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
The Saints replaced their quarterback, and hired an offensive guru in Sean Payton to be their head coach, but the offense was never the problem with this team. The defense sucks in every area and there isn’t a whole lot of reason to think it’s going to get any better. They won’t have the bizarre circumstances of last season to deal with in 2006, but the results won’t be any better. The Saints will finish in last place in the NFC South, by a lot.
Last Year Hurt for the Saints
THAT’S A WRAP
Next week, as you may have guessed, we’ll be dedicated solely to talking about this weekend’s draft, we’ll find out who filled holes, and whose holes remain holy. Keep an eye open for an Inside Pulse Sports Radio that will go in the can this Friday night, when I and the entertainment machine that is Patrick Nguyen rub each others nipples and prepare for the blessed events of Saturday morning. Until then!
