Can I crack open the champagne bottles yet?
Okay, the cat is out of the bag. People have figured out that I’m pulling for Terry to win Survivor: Exile Island. I don’t know how so many people solved the riddle; it’s not like I gave any major clues (did I?). Anyway, as much as I would like to write a column talking about how Terry is odds-on favorite to win (and believe me when I say I could), I must respectfully decline. I don’t want to be accused of favoritism, especially because I feel like the only one on the IP staff that even remotely likes Terry.
So instead – with a sigh – I have to talk about someone else. Following the trend of the other writers, I think I’m going to have to write about Cirie.
Cirie did something I don’t think I’ve ever seen before on Survivor: she got rid of Final Two bait because they were final two bait. Oh sure, the annoying one or the sneaky one (usually great final two bait) has been voted out too early on previous seasons. But reasons for that phenomenon is because they were annoying or sneaky, respectively. Never before has final two bait been seen as a threat to anyone else. Or if they have, no one has done anything about it. Until now.
Cirie doing what she did last week accomplished two things. On the surface, this showed that she can do something strategic besides laying low. Deeper down, she proved that she is fully aware of what’s going on. In addition to that (I count those two previous sentences as one of the two things Cirie accomplished), she forced her allies closer than before.
Think about it. If Courtney was still around, people like Shane or Terry (or even Danielle) would be able to be buddy with Courtney, and use her to go further into the game, all the while, guaranteeing Courtney the $100,000 runner up prize. Voting her out was a solid way to reduce options for other people, thus leaving Cirie as an option. Cirie says to people who may be thinking of using Courtney: “Hey, she’s gone now. If you need anyone to go further into the game, it’s gonna have to be me!”
And that folks, is pure genius. Who now can do anything about it? Clearly Aras and Cirie are tight together (how’d that happen?). And it appears as if Danielle is in on it too. Oh Shane could be really pissed off at this, but who’s he going to turn to for help? Terry and who else? Two is not 50% of five, so it looks like Shane better keep his mouth shut and hope that ploy was just meaningless. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Cirie was a pure genius, and she should be rewarded for her stellar gameplay.
It’s just too bad she’s not going to win.
Okay, so I finally caved under pressure (which I didn’t), and decided to give Cirie her necessary dues. Oh sure, I did this weeks ago, so one could argue that THEY were copying ME. But do not expect me to go ahead and give her ‘one of the best ever’ awards. She hasn’t even won the season yet. Statements like that should at least be kept until after she wins. Which she won’t.
Why you ask? Well I could say that a jury vote might not go in her favor. First off, no one knows how Austin and Sally will vote (unless of course Terry is at the final two). Also, odds are that Courtney will be angry at Cirie. If Shane goes home this week, he’ll also likely hold a grudge. Also since Bruce left on his own terms, his vote is a total question mark. There’s more than enough possibilities to suggest that Cirie won’t win, because she might not take a final two vote.
And then there’s Terry.
I’m sorry, I tried and tried not to make him a focus of my column, but when I’m making an argument, I just can’t help but bring all the facts (er, all the facts that support my claim). Cirie’s biggest obstacle to winning this season is Mr. Cool Dad himself. Allow me to further my discussion.
Terry is in the final five, and he’s got the talisman, so he’s in the final four. That’s when the power of the talisman runs out. So if Terry wins one of the next two immunities, he’s guaranteed a spot in the final three. Given his previous performance, it’s a reasonable assumption that he takes at least one of the next to immunities. And that puts him comfortably in the final three, on his own. Aye, there’s the rub. The next thing Terry has to do is win that challenge, and there he is, a richer man. It seems like he’s got pretty good odds.
But what IF he doesn’t win both of the next two immunities? I have a good feeling his talisman may hold more power than ever right now. Remember the rules: if the talisman is used, the person with the second highest number of votes goes home instead. I don’t think any one of the Casayas wants to risk that one. Especially Aras.
Terry has proven over and over (and over) that he wants Aras out of the game. And Aras is well aware of this fact. Aras does not want to chance voting for Terry, because he knows that means that Aras is sent packing. There’s not enough votes left to force Terry to use his talisman AND divert enough votes toward someone else. I really think that even if Terry loses the immunity challenge this week, he won’t get votes anyways.
The final four scenario is even better. Say Terry doesn’t win immunity in the final four, then why vote for him at all? Why waste votes, when someone else’s votes are going to determine who goes home? As far as I’m concerned, they should take fate into their own hands and vote for one of their own; this way THEY decide the outcome, and not Terry.
It’s Terry’s game to lose. Once he gets to the final three, he’s just got one more challenge to win.
Does this all make sense? It does to me. I tried to back it all up using logic. Feel free to email and harass me saying “you dumb bitch, you don’t know what you’re talking about.” Just be sure to supplement the ‘dumb bitch’ comment with “and here’s why…” I don’t take offense to any derogatory comments as long as they’re reasonably supported. It’s like a high school essay once again!
Okay, it’s well past a page and a half, and I haven’t started the Rundown yet. Since I don’t have anything considerable to add, it’s time for said Rundown. It’s down to five, and it’s getting juicy. Remember: rank = likelihood of winning, relative to everyone else.
Loser’s Lounge:
16- Tina Scheer
15- Melinda Hyder
14- Misty Giles
13- Ruth Marie Milliman
12- Bobby Mason
11- Dan Berry
10- Nick Stanbury
Jury Hole:
9- Austin Carty
8- Sally Schumann
7- Bruce Kanegai
6- Courtney Marit (6). Pro: You were voted out because you were seen as a threat to others. You were competing for other people’s spot in the final two, and you had to be voted out before you got any further. Con: The reason you were seen as a threat is that you were too annoying and unlikable, and that’s why you were a great co-finalist. Courtney, you proved me wrong all season, and you had some great potential. You did good this game. Just PLEASE don’t be a bitter juror.
*Jury Hole Update!* Bruce can poop again! It’s really good to see Bruce back, and smiling (and doing that whole pinky/thumb shake thing). Bruce, don’t enter any eating contests in the near future.
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5- Danielle DiLorenzo (4). Danielle took a hit this past week and she doesn’t even realize it. Like I said, Terry’s safe for next week, and Aras is nervous. Shane probably is too. Look for Shane to hook back up with Cirie and Aras. That means not good things for Danielle. I think Danielle’s on the outs, and does not even know it. Shane’s gonna be looking for anyone but himself to go after this week, and it’s probably Danielle. Just a thought, but Danielle may need some assistance next week (and so could her boobs. Holy crap, I feel bad for those things).
4- Aras Baskauskas (5). Cirie kicked ass this past week. And since Aras is teamed up with her, he vicariously kicked at least some ass. He’s in a seemingly good position in the game, so I can’t dock him points for being in trouble. I do fear that he may take control (and thus responsibility) when one of his own must go this week (as I said during Terry’s above spiel, Aras may be so fearful of himself going that he’ll do anything to get rid of someone else). That sort of haphazard thinking may get him in trouble with a jury. The other possibility is that Aras targets Shane, who flips out, and Shane gathers Terry and Danielle against Aras. Anything is possible at this stage of the game.
3- Shane Powers (3). I know I’m going to get hatemail saying this is too high up for him. And I can see your point. Personally, I think Shane will do one of two things this week. He can team back up with Aras and Cirie, and go after Danielle. That would require some smoothing over of things, in addition to swallowing some pride (and fighting back the urge to flip out). Or if he’s still pissed at Cirie and Aras, find some way to exploit them, and team up with Danielle and Terry to get rid of one of them. This would just be for one week, but if Terry can’t go home, then Shane may be forced to do option #2. He may be leaving this week, but he sure as hell ain’t going home without a fight. He’s got something in him that just gives me a hunch he won’t be leaving this week.
2- Cirie Fields (2). Player of the Week honors, folks! As if you didn’t see that one coming. Cirie caught a fish, and that was awesome. Cirie is in total control of this game (well, everything that Terry doesn’t control). Cirie is doing as much as she possibly can to make sure her game is set for when Terry finally leaves. This is great, because I caught on to Cirie a long time ago that she was an under the radar (UTR) player, and I commended her for this. It’s so nice to see a UTR take the reins of the game, and that’s just what she did. The only problem I foresee is that all her control might not be enough, as one could definitely argue (and I would agree) that Terry’s control might not be able to be overcome. I like Cirie a lot, and if Terry was not around, I would be jumping up and down for her. Cirie has done a splendid job at Survivor thus far, and she should be rewarded. If not for Terry, I’d put her at #1 and keep her there.
1- Terry Deitz (1). As if you didn’t see that one coming either. No matter how hard I try, I cannot convince myself that Terry doesn’t win. People have said to me “Okay, he gets to the final two, but he’s only getting Austin and Sally’s votes. Two isn’t enough.” And my reply is often along the lines of “Chris Daugherty was in the same position three seasons ago, and handily won the vote.” Terry definitely has Sally and Austin. As I said earlier, Bruce is a question mark. But Courtney may be pissed off, and hold whichever Casaya is next to Terry responsible. Also remember that if Terry rides immunity to the final two, that means that Casaya is going to have to play the backstabbing game, which could result in an additional angry juror (or two). Since the merge, Terry has cast zero execution votes (ie, the person you vote for is the person who leaves). That means Terry has zero enemies on the jury. I already explained Terry’s game earlier in the column. As far as I’m concerned, he’s sitting in the final three, where all he has to do is win that final challenge. That’s his only obstacle. Keep it up Terry.
Well kids, it’s finals week for the old bag. I don’t know how I was able to pop out a column (and early, to boot), but I did. You appreciate this, dammit! As always, feel free to email me with foul language and contempt. Of course, I feel like being a Terry fan has made me some sort of outcast in the e-world. So if you feel so inclined to shower me with praise, the go right ahead and do so.
So until next time, when we discuss common pancreatic pathologies, stay cool.
~Dora
