If you were fortunate enough to be able to have caught the first round of this years’ playoffs, then you saw what some analysts have called the-best-first-round-ever. While I’m not going to go that far, there certainly was some major excitement and some very intense battles that seemed to have a tension that’s typically reserved for later playoff rounds. It wasn’t so much that there were upsets as that it was a hard fought round where most of the lower seeds showed themselves to be more than capable of bringing the fight to some of the top tier squads.
What I’m going to do is quickly look at what happened, what we learned from those series’ and then give some predictions as to what the next round will hold.
First Round Results
Western Conference
Spurs over Kings 4-2
Suns over Lakers 4-3
Clippers over Nuggets 4-1
Mavs over Grizzlies 4-0
What we learned:
1) The Kings were not a typical 8th seed.
If you read my last column then you know that I believed the Kings had a far greater chance to upset the Spurs than most 8th seeds had, historically. This series reminded me a lot of a Rocky 3. The prediction…it was pain, and this thing went back and forth in a series that was much closer than the 4-2 result. The series seemed to turn when Ron Artest got suspended from game 2 for what appeared to be a pretty mild foul in game 1. The Kings got jobbed and not even the inevitable bounce back win game 3 was going to save them.
Had the league been more realistic with it’s suspension I think the Kings win game 2 and it’s a whole new world. The average score was 106-97 in favor of the Spurs. The MVP of the series was Tony Parker, who led the team in scoring and assists. He also did a solid job of shooting the ball and controlling tempo….at least when the Spurs were at home.
2) Phil Jackson is THE best coach in the league.
I’m a huge fan of Mike D’Antoni, but this series was dominated by the decision of Jackson to force Kobe to be a playmaker for the team. Most folks thought this would be a heroic series for Kobe as he single-handedly scored enough to keep the Lakers close. Jackson, and Kobe to his credit, flipped the script and played some great team ball. The first 4 games of the series went about as well as one could imagine and I spent much of the series shaking my head wondering if Jackson really could get Kobe to channel Jordan (post baseball years).
Unfortunately, for the Lakers, the supporting cast just didn’t give enough support as the series went on. Smush Parker was horrific and nobody else could get into a groove. This forced Kobe to jack up shots and the Lakers seemed to lose their heart after that. It was Kobe and the Tin Men against a Suns team that was clearly better from the start. The fact this went 7 games in the fashion that it did was amazing in its own right. The plan from Jackson was risky but it worked so long as the other Lakers could hit shots. Once that failed it was back to business as usual and the Lakers ended up getting the business end of Tim Thomas, Boris Diaw, Steve Nash, and a cast of seemingly thousands.
3) It’s tough being Carmelo Anthony.
You’re basically Glen Robinson with a baby face and yet because you were drafted with Lebron James people will always expect you to be more. His inability to dominate this series crushed any chance the Nuggets had. No Nene, no Kenyon Martin, and no outside shooting doomed the team. Only a singularly dominant scoring effort was going to make this series respectable…and Anthony failed on an epic scale.
4) These Grizzlies are simply not good enough.
I applaud Jerry West for building this team up from almost scratch (Gasol was here pre-West), but it’s clear he doesn’t have the horses to get things done. The Mavs totally dismantled Memphis in a series that was sad to watch. Mike Fratello had the stink-face look the entire series and looked like someone gave crack to his pit bull and then shot it’s dong off. It was bad…not as bad as his hair, but bad.
West needs to get some players on this team who can penetrate and make things happen. He doesn’t have anyone on this team that can consistently get their shot off and create for Pau Gasol. He has a team full of Hummers and he needs a Porsche in the worst way.
Eastern Conference
Pistons over Bucks 4-1
Miami over Bulls 4-2
Nets over Pacers 4-2
Cavs over Bullets 4-2
What we learned:
1) The Pistons are really damn good.
The plan was to deny Redd the ball by cruising in the passing lanes and forcing other players to hit shots. They couldn’t. TJ Ford was manhandled all series and provided nothing for the team outside of game 4. You would hope Bobby Simmons could raise his game and take the scoring burden off Redd, until you realize he has Teyshaun Prince on him and that he’s locked up like my daughter until she’s 35. The bigs for the Bucks can produce if the floor is spread out, but once Redd and Ford were ineffective the Pistons could tie down Bogut and he wasn’t a threat in this series.
The game plan was solid by Flip and frankly he has the players to play exactly how he wants to. He wants to create turnovers, he doesn’t want to double team anyone, and he wants balanced offense whenever possible using lots of motion. This series was a clinic. I can’t tell if Stotts did a horrible job coaching or if his team was just totally outclassed to the point where strategy was useless. My gut tells me he did was he could, but unfortunately he just doesn’t have that Gilbert Arenas, ultra-quick scorer, that can give the Pistons trouble. I thought he’d pound the ball inside more, however, when you’re trying to push around Messrs. Wallace and Antonio McDyess I can understand not trying to play that game all day long.
This Piston team is on a mission.
2) The Bulls are heading in the right direction; Shaq can still dig deep.
This series was amazingly close considering it didn’t go to 7 games. The first few games were played with zeal and high intensity offense. Both teams were fantastic with the ball and it seemed everyone had the answers on offense. I have to give credit to Scott Skiles here, he allowed his team to play ball and they hung really tough. Nocioni was a match up nightmare for the Heat. They did not have the speed to play him and he was hitting every imaginable shot from all angles. Kirk Hinrich showed the country what he could do. His playmaking was unreal in the first 4 games of this series. He hit some big shots and did a fantastic impression of Jack the Ripper in game 4. Speaking of killers, Benjamin Gordon had some impressive moments. He didn’t play as well as I think he’s capable, but I also credit that to the Heat…they can make adjustments too.
At the end of the day, however, it was Shaq who came though. After some AWUFL officiating in the first few games of this series (something David Stern MUST look at), Shaq was allowed to play his game. A credit to him he DID make a slight adjustment towards a more finesse game, but for the most part the refs rightly swallowed their whistle and let the guys play. When that happened Shaq dominated. He finished the Bulls off with a 30-20 effort, one that saw him become one of the oldest players in history to accomplish that feat in the playoffs.
To let you know just how close this series was, the average score was 101 to 98 in favor of the Heat. It was an amazing series that I thought would be a slug-fest, but that turned out to be very entertaining and showed a real contrast in personality and styles. The Heat, however, move on.
3) The loss of Peja Stojakovic killed the Pacers.
It’s real simple folks. When Peja played in this series the Pacers won; when Peja didn’t play…they lost. While he didn’t dominate either game he played, he opened up the court and allowed the rest of the team room to operate. The two wins the Pacers got were what had me thinking they would wrap this series up rather quickly. However, a pesky knee took him out of series and with him went the Pacers. It’s really too bad too because Peja has a reputation, one he deserves, for pulling a yearly Houdini when the leagues second-season begins. It looked like he might shed that label this year, and then…he can’t. I guess there’s next season….except Peja is a free agent and will probably leave. Good job Larry.
4) Shock-and-awe.
I don’t want to wrap myself, and this series, in superlatives, but I can not express just how exciting this series was. Watching Gilbert Arenas and Lebron James duel was as close as this generation is going to get to Bird v Jordan or Pettit v Baylor. This series really had it all:
-A debut game from Lebron James that resulted in a triple-double
-Gilbert Arenas going off for 34 per including almost 50% from the 3-point line
-2 game winning shots by James as time expired
-Charles Barkley calling the whole thing a disgrace….because of the lackluster defense
This series was fantastic if for no other reason than you just knew the last guy with the ball was going to win the game. More often than not it was Lebron James, as he started what should be a fantastic playoff career. It got to a point where I was scaring my family because by the end of every game each shot just got bigger and bigger. Yelling “BANG!” can really only be done just so many times before people start to get sick of it. It’s just that there were so many “BANG!” moments that I couldn’t help myself. I think at some point my girlfriend just took off and went to a farmers market or something…I don’t know, she isn’t really back yet so I’ll keep you updated on what happened.
At the end of the day this series was much more fun than it was a showing of great play. Barkley was right in that the defense was horrific by both teams and you wonder at the end of the day if it’s games like this that make coaches want to kill themselves. Eddie Jordan seemingly had his face buried in his hands for at least 67% of this series. You just knew he was thinking: “We talked about this guys…ROTATE…for f*cks sake!!” Still this was a fantastic battle between 2 superior scorers. It’s going to be sad watching the Pistons destroy the scoring momentum James had going into this series.
On a final note, the best part of the series was the end. Gilbert Arenas misses some huge FT’s which simply killed the Wizards. They were up one but you could see the script being written….again. Lebron James then says something to Arenas (we later find out it was some mild trash talking). After a timeout James catches the ball near half court, gets doubled and passes it to an open Larry Hughes. Someone rotates over and Larry passes it to a WIDE open Damon Jones. Jones, who had not played a single minute in the game, hits a really long two and the game ends. The part, however, that I liked was after the game out comes Gilbert Arenas and he faces the cameras and the heat; very standup move by one of the only guys who brought it for the Wiz every night. He took all the tough questions and didn’t even duck the James-trash-talking situation. Big kudos to Arenas.
Some predictions
Spurs vs. Mavs: This is a different Mavericks team, and really it’s more talented on paper than the Spurs. To me this series is about whether or not the Spurs are in the Mavs’ heads or not. If they aren’t the Mavericks could win this baby in 5; if they are, however, then this goes 7 with the Spurs pulling it out. I HATE going against talent, but I think on some level the Spurs ARE in the heads of Dallas. Spurs in 7
Clippers vs. Suns: Looking at how the Lakers pushed the Suns I think really think the Clippers can/will win this series. If Kwame Brown and Lamar Odom were tearing apart the Suns inside, you can just imagine what Elton Brand and Chris Kaman will do. It doesn’t even matter that Kaman is the second ugliest player on Earth, and that he seems to have “mild” case of ADHD. Clippers in 6
Pistons vs. Cavs: Ouch. This puppy is going to get ugly. The Pistons are built specifically to beat teams that are built around singular greatness. They find their matchups and they exploit them better than any team….maybe in the past 5-6 years. I refuse to totally discount the greatness of Lebron, but he’s facing a team now that actually tries to play defense and things could get ugly fast. Pistons in 5
Nets vs. Heat: This is the series Shaq can take over. I like Krstic and all, but this is a deer-in-headlights scenario. I think O’Neal realizes he needs to play a more finesse game in order to not foul out, and I believe that he can do that against the Nets and still dominate. The key match up here is going to be Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson vs. Dwayne Wade and Antoine Walker. Whichever pair outscores the other…it’s going to go a long way towards winning this series. While there is a surprising amount of mediocre players on both teams, this should be a down-and-dirty series with some fantastic wing play. I have a sneaking suspicion injury issues will be a factor. Heat in 7
Conference Finals MVP: Shaq
Until next time…..
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