It’s hard to believe we’re already at this point already: the Final Four. In a way, it feels like the season just started, and now we’re almost at the finish line.
Normally, arriving at the Final Four means that it is finale time. However, just like in Australia, which is the only other season to do this, the Final Four will have a regular episode and the finale will begin at the Final Three.
If you haven’t noticed already, I’d like to call your attention to the fact that they are behind where they should be in terms of day count. In a normal season (Australia set aside, because they had 42 days, not 39), the Final Five TC is held on night 36, and the finale spans from day 37 to day 39. But Shane, our fifth place finisher, was voted out on day 33. Did you catch Jeff telling the Final Four as they left, “Six days left, guys.” Why, after countless seasons, are they messing with the order?
My best guess is the hidden Immunity Idol/Exile Island twist. Per the rules, the Idol can be used at any point up through the Final Four. After that, it is no good anymore. That means they need more than one day for the Final Four round. They need to give time for the Idol to play out, which means they need a Reward Challenge and a trip to Exile Island, in the event the Idol was still out there. So, the Final Four needs a regular round, not just one day. So that also means they get a regular episode.
None of this matters, of course. I was just thinking about it, and that was my best educated guess as to why the finale formula is being messed with for the first time since Australia. So regular episode tonight, and then the finale will be on Sunday.
Let’s start by talking about Shane and his exit. Shane was definitely an enigma this season, and he definitely provided for a lot of comic entertainment. I’m glad he got voted off because I didn’t want him to win, he tried to quit early on and then had random outbursts…while that makes for good television, I don’t think it merits winning the game. So I’m relieved to see him voted off just for the fact that now I won’t have to bite my nails through the last two episodes afraid he’s going to sneak up there and take it. But, with that said, it does not mean I do not appreciate all his comic antics on the island. My only regret is that he never got sent to Exile Island, I think that would have been pretty interesting to watch. In spite of all that, I was truly touched to see him with his son this week. That was a really nice moment.
Of course, as a Survivor strategist, I also can’t discount the strategy Shane used. For those of you who may be dumbfounded by this statement, yes, I do think Shane played with a strategy. Was there much? Not really. However, he does get credit for forming the Nutball Alliance, which held together much longer than anyone thought possible. Shane’s big problem, aside from the psychotic breakdown he was having due to nicotine withdrawal, was that he was far too secure in his allies. Cirie took complete advantage of that, and twice was able to talk him down. Like I said last week, three strikes and you’re out. She fooled him once, she fooled him twice, the third time she fooled him, he was gone.
So, that brings us to this season’s Final Four: Aras, Cirie, Danielle, and Terry.
There are times when I have a layout of what I think will happen in the ending, and other times I do not. This time, I do. I have a pretty logical layout of how I think the rest of the game will play out, which I will share in a little bit.
My two favorites are Aras and Cirie. There have been no questions this season about how much I love Cirie. I think she is an absolutely brilliant player, and even though I’m fully aware she hasn’t won yet, and probably won’t, she will still be going down in my mind as one of the best people to ever play this game. I agree with what Shane has been saying in his post-boot interviews: it has been fascinating to watch her story as the season goes on. She began the game as someone who was a couch potato Survivor fan, one of the many who said “I could do that,” but then unlike most of us, actually got up and went to do it (I probably would if I was old enough, but that’s beside the point). She was down and out in the beginning, told flat-out by Shane and Aras that she and Melinda were the next two to go. Then, she did the absolute right thing by sitting back and watching and laughing as the Nutball Alliance ate itself from the inside out, and then when she had the chance, she took the power in the game and has controlled the vote for the past couple rounds. Finally, she is starting to realize she could potentially actually win this thing.
I think she deserves it more than anyone out there, but sadly, I don’t think she will get it. While a lot of people have been criticizing her decisions to oust Courtney and Shane, I agree with them and understand completely why she did it: why on Earth keep the Final Two bait around? Too often they are taken to the Final Two and they surprise everyone by winning when they easily could have been removed earlier. She knew that if people wanted Courtney and/or Shane in the Final Two in the hopes of an easy win, they would not only be advancing in the place of other people to spots like the Final Five, Final Four, etc., and possibly in place of her. So, I definitely understand and agree with her decisions.
But, at this point, with the way the playing field is stacked up I don’t think she can win. Here is my prediction for the rest of the season that I alluded to earlier.
As the previews suggest, Terry and Danielle will strike a deal for the Final Two. Since this is the last round the Idol can be used, I think Terry will win Immunity again (ugh) and he’ll give the Idol to Danielle. Terry has clearly had it out for Aras for a long time, and since Cirie is less of a threat in the Final Three, Aras will be voted out in fourth place.
That leaves us with Terry, Danielle, and Cirie in the Final Three. As unbelievable as it is, I think Terry will win again, becoming the first player ever to win all of the individual Immunity challenges. The only hitch to this is if they shake it up and have some kind of mental challenge, like they did in Australia. They’ve already had a couple endurance challenges, so I’m beginning to wonder if they’re going to shake it up a bit this time around, in which case Cirie would have a shot, as well as Danielle, against finally beating Terry. But, for the sake of prediction, we say Terry actually pulls off the impossible and wins all the challenges.
Who does he take with him to the Final Two? This is a no-brainer, because not only will he have a deal to take Danielle, but it would be absolutely suicidal to go up against Cirie. So I’m pretty confident that we’ll be seeing a Terry/Danielle showdown in the Final Two.
As far as what happens there, I have no idea. This disgusts me, but Terry may actually have a shot at winning this whole thing. If it is Terry/Danielle, I’ll definitely be pulling for Danielle, but as every week goes by, I keep getting this sinking feeling that Terry is going to run away with this thing.
Even though I’m not really sure, for the sake of prediction since this is my last column before the finale and the last chance I’ll have to make any predictions, we’ll finish this out by analyzing what each Juror might do in a Terry/Danielle Final Two.
Keep in mind that, especially concerning Aras and Cirie, we do not know what happens in the last two episodes and what kinds of new grudges might be created. But this is all speculative anyway!
TERRY/DANIELLE FINAL TWO PREDICTIONS
AUSTIN—This is a no-brainer. He will cast a vote for TERRY.
SALLY—Again, another no-brainer. She will vote for TERRY.
BRUCE—This one is tougher to call, because he has said he has a high respect for Terry and he and Danielle were apparently really close out there. So this could truly go either way, but I’ll say he votes for DANIELLE.
COURTNEY—She is extremely bitter towards Danielle for betraying her, so she will be voting for TERRY.
SHANE—Shane, as always, is an enigma. He has been talking in his interviews since being voted off about how he respects Terry. I don’t think he really likes Danielle all that much, they’ve fought several times and he was trying to get her out before he left himself. So I think he will vote for TERRY.
ARAS—The Terry/Aras rivalry has been heating up for weeks, and looks like it will be culminating in a Reward Challenge showdown tonight. It’s possible that Aras could throw Terry a respect vote because of his dominance in the challenges, but I think it is far more likely that he would vote for Danielle.
CIRIE—Again, a tough one to call, but she and Danielle seem pretty close and I don’t know if she would want to let Terry walk away with this whole thing (I know I wouldn’t!) So I will say she votes for Danielle.
There you have it: Terry wins SURVIVOR: PANAMA—EXILE ISLAND in a 4-3 vote.
So, here is my little mini-chart of how I think the Final Four players will stack out for the sake of review:
FOURTH PLACE—Aras
THIRD PLACE—Cirie
SECOND PLACE—Danielle
SOLE SURVIVOR—Terry
I really hope I’m wrong.
But, regardless, this has been a great season and I can’t wait to see how it really does end up!
“See” you next week! Enjoy the last two episodes!
