I love To Be Continueds! Oh sure, it’s frustrating as a fan to leave an episode without a feeling of closure. But as a fan, I can also appreciate the supreme television-making art form involved with making such a bold move. Be pissed off that you didn’t find out, or be super-excited at the suspense. It’s win-win, which is rare to see in Survivor.
Anywho, we’ve got some issues to discuss. In one column, we must discuss what happened Thursday, as well as speculate about Sunday. There’s lots to cover, so let’s get started.
About Thursday’s episode:
I was disappointed in Terry. While he did have every right to say something to Cirie about her torch (it was a bad place to put it, especially if people are right behind you in the dark), he went way overboard. No one’s a child there, and no one needs to be treated like one. The only possible explanation is that he thought Cirie purposely did it to him, in which case such explosion would be valid. Personally, I think he is so fed up with everyone that he feels he can treat them like crap without consequence. And to a certain extent, he’s right; jury votes from Cirie or Aras are not possible, so incinerating bridges (as opposed to just burning them) doesn’t count against him.
And the whole thing with him in the challenges. Two things with these. #1- You win them. #2 – You don’t complain about the rules if you didn’t pay attention. I’ll leave it at that.
That’s odd. I just started a column listing three negatives about Terry. That’s got to be a first. But don’t worry, I do have to compliment him. First off, he handled himself well against Aras’s asshole behavior post-reward challenge. It took a big man to go up to him two days later and make amends. Bonus points for both of them in the aftermath. Second off, I have to commend him for not giving Danielle the talisman. Yes, he could have saved her with reasonable confidence. But what does she have to offer him in return? Also, if he gave it to her, you know damn well that she would have run off, told the others, and voted him out. Good move keeping it quiet.
The Rundown this week is somewhat different from regular weeks. Usually I comment on the past week, and forecast the future in the Rundown. This week is straight-up prognostication, so all comments are held beforehand. That being said, I have to take this space to give Player of the Week honors (folks) to Aras. His only out was to win immunity, and he did just that. It’s crystal clear that he likes Cirie, so taking her was the best choice for that reward. He was a gentleman by smoothing things over with Terry (although a dickhead for starting it). And he was wicked smart by remembering to give fire-building tips to Cirie. He did well.
As for the girls, neither did anything to hurt or help themselves. Danielle HAD to go to Terry for help, and she was successful. Cirie stuck to her well-known plan, and it worked. The problem is that while neither girl messed up excessively, one of them is going home in the first ten minutes of next week’s episode. I guess that’s the way it works sometimes.
And that’s all I really have to comment about the most recent episode. It’s so hard to focus on the penultimate episode when the last one is the finale. So let’s look on to the future.
Okay, it’s time for the Rundown. The Rundown – as always – ranks players on the likelihood of winning, relative to the other contestants. However, this takes into account two factors: #1 – likelihood of getting to the final two, and #2 – likelihood of winning a jury vote. The one major gripe about the ‘To Be Continued’ is that we don’t know who’s in the final three and who’s out. So the rankings may be slightly skewed based on the knowledge that both Terry and Aras are in the final three (as opposed to just Terry), and thus those two are more likely to be in the final two. I’m judging this Rundown as I probably would have if it was a traditional finale, only slanting it to account for Aras and Terry. So without further ado:
4- Danielle DiLorenzo
3- Cirie Fields
2- Aras Baskauskas
1- Terry Deitz
Last season, I boasted that three people in the final four had been #1 of a weekly Rundown. And one of those three (Danni, Steph, and Rafe) had occupied the top spot ever since the fourth episode (Margaret, Brandon, Brandon for the first three weeks, respectively). This season, I beat my own record. Ever since episode two, Danielle, Terry, or Cirie has been at #1 of my Rundown (Sally after episode one, based on pre-show analysis mostly). See, I do know what I’m talking about.
DANIELLE
I’m going to start this by saying that anyone who makes the final four in any season of Survivor is a good player. You can reach the jury by luck or even by being on “a good team.” But to get to the final four means you’ve distinguished yourself above the rest. And for that, these four deserve to be commended. So whatever negative I may say about people here does not discredit them as players; it just discusses flaws relative to their remaining three opponents.
I don’t really know what to say about Danielle. She’s always been there, and she’s always been a key player. She’s not one to be in the shadows and hide. But on the same token, I’m not so sure she’s really “accomplished” all that much. And sadly, I think that may leave people with a bad taste in their mouths.
But other than Courtney, she has not pissed people off that much. That means a jury vote might not go against her. This is always nice to have going into the finale. And because she hasn’t really “accomplished” that much, she might not be a bad choice to take into the final two.
Overall, I don’t really like her chances. I have a sneaking suspicion (and this is spoiler free, so sorry if it coincides with the truth) that she loses to Cirie in the fire showdown. For her to win it all, she has to win against Cirie, get to final two (preferably with Aras), and win the jury vote against Aras (not Terry). She could do two of the above, but all three of them might be a stretch. However, I truly think that anyone can win this season, so she is far from out of it.
Overall chance of winning: 15%
CIRIE
Cirie has been a ray of sunshine this season. When Casaya was being a bunch of losers, there sat Cirie giggling. Who couldn’t like her? Many people caught on to her under the radar strategy early on (myself included), yet she more than redeemed herself by taking charge of the game. And remember that whole “Either you or Melinda is gone tonight, and the other is gone next” thing? I don’t think that’s an issue anymore. Although I would die laughing if Aras won final immunity, and voted Cirie out for only that reason.
Cirie has proven that she is no physical liability to the others. While that helped her get this far, it may hurt her next round (assuming she wins against Danielle). If she lasts the current tribal council, it’s still a reasonable assumption that she will not win the final immunity challenge. That being said, she’s at the mercy of the others; she has to be taken into the final two. You know Aras will take her over Terry, but what would Terry do? Terry might see more final two “value” in Aras, and take him to the final two, despite Terry’s hatred for Aras.
Cirie has done a good political game in that she did not piss off people who left on good terms. But she does have two enemies in the jury (Courtney and Shane), and that’s a big obstacle to overcome. And like I said, the fact that she hasn’t made other enemies might make her not so appealing for the final two to Terry.
Also worth noting that if it is Cirie and Aras, it’s gonna be a close vote. Who knows how Sally and Austin will vote if Terry’s not there? And what about Bruce and Danielle, or even Shane? It’s a tossup, but I say Cirie has a slight edge. However, she’s still got a tough road for her: beat Danielle, go to final two with Aras, and hope for the best. Can she do it? Absolutely. Cirie versus Aras will be the closest possible final two, which would make for great TV. Either way, Cirie is only the second black player to make the final four, and she has played a damn good game. Those alone are enough cause for bragging rights, and winning would even further that. Cirie, I’ve said this before, but if Terry wasn’t around, I’d be hootin’ and hollerin’ for ya. If he doesn’t win, I really hope you do.
Overall chance of winning: 25%
ARAS
Okay, I haven’t liked him all season, and I’m not about to change that now. His ‘holier than thou’ attitude really pisses me off, especially because he’s one to talk. If you watched Big Brother 6 last season, you’ll know where I’m going with this; Aras would have been a perfect member of The Friendship. He notices all the flaws in everyone else, and calls them out on it, but strangely neglects his own faults. To quote Lisa Simpson (who I THINK was quoting some other famous guy – that name escapes me at the moment), “Let he who is without sin cast the first stone.” Aras, take notes.
Anyway, despite that, I can’t knock the guy too much. He has played a good game. While he hasn’t dominated the challenges quite like he would have liked (“I’m the only one who can beat Terry”, meanwhile, Terry wins five straight immunities), he and Cirie have had a stranglehold on this game, and done well. Where Aras shines above Cirie is that he probably won’t be held accountable by Shane or Courtney for their exits. Even though he did the same thing, somehow the responsibility does not get put on him.
But there’s more to it than that. It’s now fact that Aras is in the final three. Chances are that if Cirie/Danielle wins the final challenge, they’ll take him to the final two. Obviously he’ll be in the final two if he wins. Then you also have to consider the possibility that Terry takes Aras into the final two. If it’s Cirie or Aras, Cirie might not be a good choice for Terry; therefore, Aras might have the slight edge. I guess what I’m saying is that Aras probably has the best chances of making the final two (that’s a good thing).
As I said earlier, this edition of The Rundown combines a player’s likelihood of getting to the final two, and likelihood of winning a jury vote. Aras has a very good chance of making it that far. But the jury vote; that’s still up in the air. I have no clue how a jury would feel about Aras, if he was next to Danielle or Cirie. Both Danielle and Cirie have their advantages over him, but also their disadvantages. If it’s Aras/Danielle or Aras/Cirie, I’ll just wait to see the vote before I guess how it’ll go. However, if it’s Aras/Terry, Aras becomes $100,000 richer. While he may be, at this point, most likely to reach final two, he’s toast if Terry brings him.
So let me sum it up for Aras: his chances of reaching the final two are high, but his jury chances might not be as good as one would like. For him to win, he has to win the final challenge (let’s be serious – either he or Terry wins it), and hope for the best against his female jury partner. Just two things to do, which he could accomplish. While it may seem easier for him to win at this point, I’m still giving him the same probability as Cirie (his Rundown rank of #2 only reflects his higher chances of making final two. I think they’re tied). Where Aras has an easier road to the final two than her, Cirie has a slightly easier road to winning the jury (of course, it could go either way. I’m guessing at this point Cirie has the slight edge). That being said, Aras, if you win, I still won’t like you, but I will commend you for winning, because you will have earned it.
Overall chance of winning: 25%
TERRY
And that leaves us with Mr. Cool Dad himself. As I noted in last year’s finale column, only ten people have ever reached the final four of their respective Survivor season without receiving a vote at that point (Kelly Wiglesworth, Tina Wesson, Ethan Zohn, Paschal English, Brian Heidik, Sandra Diaz-Twine, Rob Mariano, Jenn Lyon, Tom Westman, and Danni Boatwright). Fun facts about these non-vote-getting mutants: 20% have taken fourth place, 0% have taken third place, 80% have made the final two, and 60% have won. Also worth noting is that more “people who never got a vote before the finale” people have won their season than people who have got a vote pre-finale.
Anyway, you can see where I’m going with this one. Terry has not received a vote yet, and thus becomes the eleventh person ever to accomplish this feat (well done by itself, Terry). If 80% of these people make it to the final two, Terry’s should therefore have an 80% chance of making it to the final two. Also, as far as I’m concerned, his chances of winning a jury vote are AT WORST 80% (which I think is exaggerated, but you have to allot for wacky things to happen). So basically he’s a shoe-in to win the final jury vote.
As with everyone else, I’ve listed what everyone must do in order to win. For Terry, it’s simple: win the final immunity challenge. He wins it, takes whoever to the finals, and collects votes. You know he’s got Sally and Austin’s votes. Also, it’s likely that Courtney and Shane are going to be pissed at whoever he’s next to. Add to the mix the fact that no one knows how Bruce will vote (or even Danielle, if she’s in the jury), and that’s more than enough to say Terry’s the man.
The only thing in his way is Aras. If Aras wins the challenge, Terry goes. Other than that, he’s in the clear. And I really hope (and think) he’ll be fine.
I really enjoy doing a weekly column. But I equally enjoy being a fan who goes on websites to read reviews, etc (especially InsidePulse). I’ve found myself to be a bit of an outcast this past season, because the e-world has a vendetta against Terry. I’m sitting here thinking this guy is awesome, and every one thinks he’s a jerk. It not only confuses me, it also kinda pisses me off because I think a lot of people dislike him because he’s so good. And people are entitles to their own opinions, so it’s no biggie.
I often get emails from Terry haters. They often say things like ‘he’s a bad player, and the only reason he’s still around is because of immunities.’ And I can’t help but highly disagree. The game of Survivor is such: you get to the final two, and you win the vote. That’s what it boils down to. We’ve all seen people who would be a lock on the vote, but they get booted because it interferes with someone else’s chances of winning the vote. Likewise, we’ve seen people so power hungry, they’ll kick out anyone, and forget that they screwed people over.
My theory has been such: however you have to win, do it. It has been shown that the easiest way to get to the final two is by plotting/scheming and making alliances. But. Anyone who is able to get to the final two by using alternative methods (Under the radar, final two bait) still deserves to be there. If Terry wins, he will have gotten there because he was a powerhouse in the challenges, with a little help from that talisman. And I’ve been saying all along, “Why does it matter how he got as far as he did? He still got there?” That’s my biggest defense of Terry.
I’ve also been a proponent of the theory that everyone in Survivor is responsible for their own fate. While it may not be equally hard/easy for everyone, you got voted out of Survivor because of something you did “wrong.” You can’t blame “wrong tribe” or anything on anyone else. If you’re on the losing tribe, and you get Pagonged, it’s your fault that you didn’t win immunities are plot/scheme your way out of it. Tying this into Terry, his ass has been on the line for months, yet he has remained in the game because of his ability to kick ass in challenges. That, to me, is reason to applaud him.
Also (and forgive me for taking this too far if I do), there’s the whole premise of Survivor as a show. The show was intended to reward the “strongest” person out there. It was intended to be a game where you build the strongest team, and get rid of the person who’s holding back the team the most (hard to get along with or weak). And every week, the weakest would lose, until only one remained. However, Richard Hatch and the Borneo crew caught onto a loophole, wherein a bunch of “weaker people” decided to vote out the “stronger.” That was not the type of game Mark Burnett had intended, but once he saw that he had an even better show on his hands, the premise of the game changed. Tying this into Terry, Terry is playing this game the way it was originally intended to be played. He’s dominating in challenges, and not having to resort to alliances. While this is the first time this strategy has been seen, if it works out, so be it.
Okay, I think I’m done talking about Terry. A page and a half ties my previous record of a one-contestant rant (Stephenie LaGrossa before last season’s finale). I’m going to sum it up by saying the following: Terry, beat these bitches. And when you do, everyone in the whole world can kiss your ass, because you’ve earned it. I’ll be watching it with my friends Sunday night, and cheering at 9:58pm EDT, when you win it all.
Overall chance of winning: 35%
And with that, it’s time to conclude this column. It’s been an AWESOME season (top four ever for me), and I can’t wait to see how it ends. Don’t forget the finale is SUNDAY, 8pm EDT. I’ll be back next week to sum everything up. As always, you’re more than welcome to email me and harass me. I love the thrill of fan mail or hate mail. It either gets my blood pumping or my ego growing. It’s win-win!
So until next time, when we discuss the benefits of throwing away eggs on their expiration day (looooong story), stay cool.
~Dora
