Summer has arrived here in suburban Chicago, and oh yes, it is hot as balls up in the second floor loft in the palatial townhouse. I spent my Memorial Day painting my garage. I know, you wish you did too. Now my fingers hurt and it hurts to type this, but I go through all of this passion for you. Because I know that there is nothing more at the forefront of your mind here in the last week of May than pro football.
It’s been a few weeks since we last previewed a division in preparation for the ever-nearer 2006 season. We’ve spent the last few weeks reviewing the draft, and I, for one, am thrilled that I will now be able to get thru a whole column without using the word “athleticism” or “potential” or any of the other draft season buzzwords heaped upon us NFL enthusiasts as ESPN rubs it’s nipples over guys that will spend most of the upcoming season on the punt return team. This week, it’s back to the here and now, and we resume our tour around the league with a look at the AFC South.
Last season, there was a clear demarcation of haves and have nots in this foursome. The Colts finally got themselves a defense, and the result was a run at an undefeated season. The run ended when the Chargers figured out that the way to stop the Colts offense was to blitz Peyton Manning relentlessly, and the Steelers used that strategy to deal them a stunning defeat in the playoffs. The Jaguars finished second, and made the postseason, but were also the beneficiaries of a fortuitous schedule. They’ve still got a lot to prove. Tennessee and Houston had miserable seasons, but you get the feeling that the Titans were rebuilding, while the Texans just continue to stumble aimlessly across the NFL landscape.
What will 2006 bring these 4 squads? Have the Colts devolved into an underachieving basket case that can’t turn left on the runway? Are the Jags ready to take another step towards becoming elite? Can the Texans and Titans get their acts together? I’ll try and answer those questions, but one thing is certain, somebody’s gonna get they azz beat.
But first, some NFL News!
– Former Saints, Bears, and Falcons running back Craig “Ironhead” Heyward is dead of brain cancer at age 39. Normally, when somebody’s job is to pick up towels and sweaty, herpes infested laundry, you don’t point that fact out to them and make them feel bad about it. “Head” did that to me one afternoon during his single shitty, underachieving season in Chicago, and I never forgot it. Now he’s dead. Moral of the story is, don’t futz with me, I’m deadlier than Phil Leotardo. Shit, now I’ll probably be dead in eight years too. Karma works that way.
– Suspended Dolphins’ running back Ricky Williams will be spending his year in exile as a Toronto Argonaut.
– Bears’ running back Thomas Jones has signed on with a guy I’ll probably have to spend all of July writing about again, Drew Rosenhaus. As a result of this, he skipped the team’s recent not-optional optional workout. Because playing Rosenhaus’ brand of summertime footsy with the team they were employed by worked out so good for Terrell Owens and Javon Walker last year.
– Jets WR Wayne Chrebet has announced his retirement. I will always remember him as one of the many pro athlete’s names my uncle never learned to pronounce. He always called him “Shabet”. Kind of like how my dad used to call Jim Harbaugh, “Harbrove”. I think I ended up punching my dad in the face over that. I just couldn’t take it anymore.
– And since nothing else happens in the NFL in May or June, let’s go thru the police blotter:
– Browns running back Ruben Droughns surrendered to authorities on a domestic violence charge last week, and is free on $2500 bail.
– Vikings cruise director Fred Smoot and first mate Bryant McKinnie pled guilty to disorderly conduct charges from THAT boat ride last fall.
– Broncos QB Jake Plummer was issued a summons for kicking in some guy’s headlights in a road rage incident.
Aaaand that’s it for this week. Unless you count the “news” that Jeb Bush will not be the NFL’s next commissioner. And neither will I. Or you. Let’s talk about the AFC South.
AFC SOUTH
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Rushing Offense- 3.7 Yards per Attempt, 24th in NFL, WEAKNESS
I remember reading a story about some old timey baseball player, I forget who it was, who was the league’s leading hitter on a last place team. In the offseason, the team rewarded him for leading the league in hitting by offering him a pay cut. They gave the justification that, “We finished in last place with you, we can finish in last place without you.”
What does this have to do with the Colts? Well, the main problem they supposedly have going into this season is that they have nobody to replace departed running back Edgerrin James. Why didn’t they make a bigger effort to get a big time back to replace him? Well, I think the answer to that is they did pretty well last season despite being 24th in the league in yards per carry. That was with the great Edgerrin James. They probably figure they can finish 24th in the league with Dominic Rhodes as their feature back too. The Colts drafted Joseph Addai late in the first round to compete with Rhodes for the starting job. Addai reminds the Colts of Edge quite a bit, both in physical stature and in style of play. Expect the Colts to begin the season with the veteran Rhodes getting the bulk of their carries, but they’ll do all they can to transition the job to Addai by season’s end.
Passing Offense- 8.13 Yards per Attempt, 2nd in NFL, STRENGTH; 20 sacks allowed, 1st in NFL, STRENGTH
Peyton Manning threw “only” 28 touchdown passes last year, which isn’t as good as the 49 he bestowed upon us in 2004, but at the end of the season, his stats weren’t what people were talking about. What was being discussed was Manning’s makeup, specifically whether he is too soft to ever take the Colts to the Super Bowl.
That suggestion is, of course, preposterous. I’m saying right now that Peyton Manning will win a Super Bowl with the Colts, and he probably will win more than one. (Whether he’ll do it with Tony Dungy as his head coach is another matter.)
This Colts team should have a Super Bowl trophy by now, and Manning, Reggie Wayne, and Marvin Harrison are the primary reasons why. Wayne and Harrison both had 1000 yard seasons in 05, and both caught over 80 balls. Tight end Dallas Clark and slot receiver Brandon Stokely are also dangerous options.
There wasn’t any team better than the Colts in keeping their QB clean last season. The key word there is SEASON. Manning was dumped only 20 times during the entire 05 regular season, then was sacked 5 times in the Colts’ playoff loss to Pittsburgh. SD sacked Manning 4 times when the Chargers ended the Colts’ 13 game unbeaten streak. 9 sacks in 2 losses, do you see a connection there? Of course there is! The Colts just better hope that it isn’t permanent.
Rushing Defense- 4.4 yards per attempt, 28th in NFL, WEAKNESS
Much was made of how much the Colts defense improved last season, and many exhaled carbon dioxide molecules bore tidings that the defense was the reason why the Colts got off to the fantastic start that they did. Well, the defense, as improved as it was, was still 28th in the league in rushing yards per carry, and that isn’t good.
Neither of the Colts’ defensive tackles, Corey Simon and Monte Reagor, were particularly staunch run stoppers last year. Both ranked pretty far down the leader board at that position with tackle totals in the 30s. That left a lot of work for middle linebacker Gary Brackett, who ranked 11th amongst NFL linebackers with 127 tackles last season.
The same crew comes back up the middle this season. They’ll need to be a lot better, because I’m not gonna lie, having the 28th best run defense in the league does not win you Super Bowls.
Passing Defense- 6.19 yards per attempt, 14th in NFL; 46 sacks, 5th in NFL, STRENGTH
When people talk about the Colts defense being improved last year, this is the area they mean. Because it sure wasn’t the run defense. Specifically, the Colts now have one of the better pass rushes in the league. Dwight Freeney is a premier pass rusher. He scored 11 sacks last year, and forced 6 fumbles. Raheem Brock also provides good pressure opposite Freeney, as evidenced by his 6 ½ sacks last year. The Colts also get good pressure up the middle from Reagor, who had 5 ½ sacks from the tackle position last season.
In the secondary, Nick Harper has evolved into a pretty steady corner, when he’s not getting stabbed in the leg by his wife. Jason David, Mike Doss, and Bob Sanders are all adequate or better.
Kicking Game- 92.0% FG Accuracy, 4th in NFL, STRENGTH
Blowing a potential game tying field goal to seal the Colts’ playoff loss to the Steelers last January was the final straw that punched liquored up kicker Mike Vanderjagt’s ticket out of Circle City. He will be replaced by none other than former New England placekicker par excellence Adam Vinatieri. Vinatieri’s made some huge kicks in his career, and he’s one of the best. But keep this in mind; he’s been under 80% accuracy 2 out of his last 3 seasons. Vanderjagt’s averaged 87.5% accuracy in that same timeframe.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
The Colts aren’t going to the Super Bowl this year either. There I said it. The running game is too uncertain, the run defense is too bad, and everything just depends too much on the passing game for them to survive the AFC playoffs. And after they fail AGAIN, somebody’s going to have to go, and it ain’t going to be Peyton Manning. I’ll take the national media at their word and accept that Tony Dungy is a good guy, and I’ll also use my own powers of observation to say he’d make a hell of a GM. He resurrected the Tampa Bay franchise from way beyond the grave and has built the Colts into a perennial powerhouse. As a gameday coach though, he makes some questionable moves. If you disagree, I implore you to watch the clock mismanagement clinic the Colts ran in the last minute of the Steeler loss. I will lovingly caress my crystal ball here, and say the Colts bring a new coach into 07, and Dungy will be given the reins of some other downtrodden franchise from the GM chair, and probably turn them around.
A Sign Of Things To Come?
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Rushing Offense- 3.9 Yards Per Attempt, 18th in NFL
Much in the same way that five years ago the cool thing for every NFL team was to have a pair of 500 pound defensive tackles, in 2006 the cool thing is to share the burden at the running back position. That’s a good thing for the Jaguars, because they are very deep at that position. That could change though, if Fred Taylor continues to unhappily pout in the corner, distraught that the Jags used a second round pick to select UCLA running back Maurice Drew. If Taylor comes back to the fold though, the Jags will have a talented trio of Taylor, Greg Jones, and Drew, and be much more solid in this critical area than the team they are trying to catch, the Colts.
Passing Offense- 6.89 Yards Per Attempt, 14th in NFL; 32 Sacks Allowed, 16th in NFL
The Jags were shocked a couple of weeks ago when Jimmy Smith, who has been their leading receiver pretty much every year that there has been a Jacksonville Jaguars franchise, unexpectedly announced his retirement. Since then they’ve engaged in a mad scramble to sign every wide receiver they can find. I think they may have signed Willie Gault yesterday. Actually, they signed much traveled first round bust Troy Edwards and former Raven Randy Hymes, but you get the idea, the Jags are worried about this.
Smith led the team with 70 catches for 1023 yards last season. The next two guys behind him, Ernest Wilford and Reggie Williams, had 76 catches for 1126 yards, combined. Somebody is going to have to step things up, get open, and catch the ball on a regular basis. If that doesn’t happen, you could see an unwelcome regression for quarterback Byron Leftwich, who put up pretty good numbers (15 TD vs. 5 INT, 89.3 rating) in 11 games last season.
Rushing Defense- 3.9 Yards Per Attempt, 12th in NFL
The Jaguars have one of the best defensive tackle tandems in the game in John Henderson and Marcus Stroud. Henderson ranked 2nd in the league at the tackle position with 70 stops last year, and Stroud was also in the top 20. As long as those two remain healthy, running the ball against the Jags will never be an easy proposition. MLB Mike Peterson is underrated, but very good. He ranked 9th among linebackers with 132 tackles last season.
Passing Defense- 6.12 Yards Per Attempt, 11th in NFL; 47 sacks, 4th in NFL, STRENGTH
If the Jags are to have a shot at overtaking the Colts this year, they particularly need to be strong in this area to have a chance against them in head to head meetings. To that end, the Jags moved to upgrade their corner position by signing former Viking corner Brian Williams, who had 4 picks last season. Williams will play opposite Rashean Mathis, who has had back to back 5 interceptions and played like one of the better corners in the league last season. At safety, Deon Grant was 6th in the league at his position with 11 passes defensed last year. Donovin Darius had 5 interceptions in 2004, but missed most of 05 with an injury. His return will give a boost to the secondary.
The Jags may not have any big name pass rushers, but they have quite a few guys who can get to the quarterback. Defensive ends Paul Spicer and Reggie Hayward combined for 16 sacks last season. Peterson had 6 sacks from the linebacker position, and 2nd year end Bobby McCray and pass situation tackle Rob Meier contributed another 11 ½ sacks between the two of them. We saw at the end of last year that a strong pass rush is essential to beating the Colts, and the Jags have that.
Kicking Game- 76.7% FG Accuracy, 22nd in NFL, WEAKNESS
Josh Scobee made 2 50+ yard field goals in 3 attempts last season, but he also missed 5 out of 10 attempts from 40-49 yards, which is where you really need your kicker to be good. He’s not an asset at this point.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
If you take a look at the rankings I posted, you’ll see that the Jags are pretty average in just about every area. This somehow translated to a 12-4 record last year, not an 8-8 record, as you might expect an average team to be. They haven’t done much in the offseason to upgrade any of the areas they are average in, and they lost the best player they have in one of those areas. 12 wins is not going to happen again this year. The flip side to that is, the Jags don’t have any glaring weaknesses, and in a division where every other team does, that’s good enough to be a serious contender for a division title.
Is Mr. Jones Gonna Be A Big Star?
TENNESSEE TITANS
Rushing Offense- 3.8 Yards Per Attempt, 21st in NFL, WEAKNESS
The Titans certainly don’t have a lack of talent at the running back position, but they don’t have a lack of question marks either.
For instance, is Chris Brown an every down NFL running back? Or is he a great physical talent who lacks the durability to be a feature back? Is he Michael Bennett? Is that who you want to be Chris? Michael Friggin Bennett??? Naperville, IL is better than that Chris. You used to lift weights with me own brother for cryin out loud, or at least that’s what my brother tells me. He’s been known to make stuff up. Like that time he said he saw Lex Luger drinking coffee outside his gym. I just don’t know what to believe anymore.
Is Travis Henry on the slow boat to washoutville? I kept thinking that getting out of Buffalo and back to the state where he starred as a Volunteer would reinvigorate his career. Instead he served a drug suspension. Lay off the doobies T, lay off the doobies.
And finally, the biggest question of all, will rookie running back LenDale White contribute to anything more than the Titans’ room service bill when they’re on the road? I gotta think the Titans full expect White to evolve into their feature back, if not this season, then soon. The question is, will he be everything he can be, or will he break their hearts?
Passing Offense- 6.40 Yards Per Attempt, 22nd in NFL, WEAKNESS; 31 sacks allowed, 19th in NFL
As of this writing, Steve McNair is still a Tennessee Titan. He won’t be when the season begins though. That you can bank on, my friend. He most likely will be a Baltimore Raven, but apparently it’s easier to go on spring break in Havana than it is to finally consummate this trade that’s been talked about for two months, so it’s not set in stone yet.
Assuming McNair is gone, that likely means Billy Volek will step into the starting role until Vince Young is deemed ready. Volek has been one of the league’s top backups for a while now, and he should feel good knowing he can go back to reprising that role very soon. While he enjoys this brief moment in the sun as a numero uno quarterback, he’ll have the pleasure of throwing to a very good group of receivers. Drew Bennett had only 738 yards last season while dealing with nagging injuries, but he had 1247 yards in 2004. Bennett will also have the luxury of having David Givens playing on the other side of the field this season. Givens has been a steady target of Tom Brady’s in New England, and now will be given the role of top receiver in Nashville. Slot receiver Brandon Jones and tight end Ben Troupe provide two more viable options for Volek.
Rushing Defense- 4.2 Yards Per Attempt, 24th in NFL; WEAKNESS
Albert Haynesworth is a top shelf run-stopping tackle, and second year man Randy Starks isn’t far behind. Both ranked in the top 20 at their position in tackles in 2005. So why was the defense so poor against the run last year?
The answer may be that the linebacker group is subpar. Keith Bulluck is a good one, but outside of him, the Titans didn’t have a whole lot there last year. Peter Sirmon has overachieved most of his career at middle linebacker, but last year he didn’t. He’ll need to be better this season. The Titans also brought in former Indy linebacker David Thornton to start on the strong side, and he should be a big help, as should new strong safety and former Steeler Chris Hope, one of the better run stopping safeties in the league. Hope will play the role of Tank Williams, the run stopping strong safety he’s replacing.
Passing Defense- 6.84 Yards Per Attempt, 28th in NFL; WEAKNESS; 41 Sacks, 9th in NFL; STRENGTH
My God did Pacman Jones suuuuuuck last year. I’ve seen people do a better job covering receivers in intramural flag football in college, while drunk and with a cigarette in their mouth. He’s got talent though, miles and miles of talent, that’s why he was the sixth overall pick in last yea’s draft I think. So maybe he’ll get better this year.
The really funny part was that the guy the Titans drafted in the seventh round of that same draft, Reynaldo Hill, ended up playing better than the sixth overall pick did. But he’s still not all that good. So yeah, I’d say the Titans have some problems in their secondary.
What the fudge got into Kyle Vanden Bosch last season? Dude has 3 ½ sacks in 32 games as a Cardinal in 03 and 04, then has 12 ½ in his first season in Nashville in 05. Can he do it again? Can pass rushing specialist Travis LaBoy improve on the impressive 6 ½ he had last season? Hmmm..I think we’re looking at a couple of career years there. Add that to the fact that the Titans didn’t do anything to hedge against this possibility, and their ripe for a drop off in the pass rush department this year.
Kicking Game- 79.3% Field Goal Accuracy, 17th in NFL
Rob Bironas was better than his 79% accuracy rate suggests last season. The Titans had him attempt from 50+ 5 times, and he made 2 of them. Take those long distance attempts out of the equation and he was at 87.5%, which is pretty good.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
Geez when I look over the rankings, it looks like the Titans pretty much sucked at everything last year. To wit:
Rushing Offense/Attempt- 21st
Rushing Defense/Attempt- 24th
Passing Offense/Attempt- 22nd
Passing Defense/Attempt- 28th
They grabbed some big names in the draft, added a nice receiver in David Givens, and a very good veteran center in Kevin Mawae, but the Titans are just too bad at too many things to have any hope of improving much on their 4-12 record of last season.
V For Volek, or Vince in 06?
HOUSTON TEXANS
Rushing Offense- 4.2 Yards Per Attempt, 9th in NFL; STRENGTH
What is this? The Texans ranked ninth in the NFL in yards per carry? But, but, but, I thought their offensive line is like the worst ever in the history of the world! That’s why poor David Carr hasn’t played well, right? He gets sacked all the time because none of his linemen know how to block I thought? Now you are telling me that their running backs actually run pretty successfully behind this same line? What’s next, a talking banana?
Domanick Davis is a top shelf running back. He has to be, the Texans passed on Reggie Bush partly because of him. And oh my god”¦I just brought up a Yahoo page with one of those “Find Your Graduating Class” banner ads at the top, and those 80s chicks in the school photos, their eyeballs move now. I don’t think I’ve ever been as freaked out by anything as I am by that. I have verified though that they are in fact moving, and I haven’t lost my mind yet. So I’ve got that going for me. Anyway, Domanick Davis has rushed for over 1000 yards on some really bad Houston teams in both of his first 2 seasons in the league, and would have had the highest total of his career in his 3rd last season had he not missed 5 games with injuries. Davis is backed up by second year back Vernand Morency, who showed some promise in his rookie season.
Passing Offense- 5.92 Yards Per Attempt, 29th in NFL, WEAKNESS; 68 Sacks Allowed, 32nd in NFL, WEAKNESS
David Carr, who was the first overall pick in the 2002 draft, has a career passer rating of 73.7. Or, put another way, he’s five points better than the universally reviled and recently deposed Lions quarterback Joey Harrington, who incidentally was the third player taken in that draft. What that tells me, is that the 2002 draft sucked balls, Carr is just about as overrated as Joey was going into that draft, and just about as bad in reality, and the Texans are idiots for continuing to piss away any hope at being competitive by refusing to admit these things, find a serviceable quarterback, and move on.
Shit, stick Gus Frerotte or Kerry Collins in there, they can’t do any worse, and at least if they fail too you don’t have to spend all your time making excuses for them the way the Texans and pretty much anyone connected with the NFL does for Carr, they can just release them, the way Carr should have been released this offseason. But no, they are determined to prove David Carr is good, so good luck to them.
In an effort to help Carr, the Texans signed former Bills receiver Eric Moulds this offseason. Moulds is probably good for 75 catches and 700-800 yards at this point in his career, and he should be a solid #2. Andre Johnson needs to be the #1. He tossed in a clunker of a season last year after breaking out with 1142 yards in 2004.
And then, there’s the problem the Texans have of giving up sacks. Is it due to the offensive line being really bad, or Carr being too slow to get rid of the ball? Well, again, the Texans run the ball fine, and that’s pretty much ¾ determined by the ability of the line. So you know what I think the answer to that question is. A lot of people say that Carr had to make too many reads in former offensive coordinator Chris Palme’s offense, and that he’ll be more successful in new head coach Gary Kubiak’s scheme. To that I say you might have something there, because Palme’s offense was also in place for the disintegration of another first overall pick, Tim Couch. Anyway, the line is pretty much unchanged from last season. Which is odd, because they could have taken D’Brickashaw Ferguson with the first overall pick if they really thought their O line was that bad, but they didn’t. Instead they passed on Ferguson and Reggie Bush, and took a defensive end. I never said this team knows what it’s doing.
Rushing Defense- 4.6 Yards Per Attempt, 30th in NFL, WEAKNESS
Again, I don’t mean to harp on the Mario Williams selection. But you’re giving up almost 5 yards a carry on defense. And you use your first overall pick on a pass rushing specialist. By doing this you are totally ignoring the fact that anybody playing you doesn’t need to pass the ball, ever. You know why? Because if they run it every time the statistics say they will pick up a first down on every series, most of the time before third down even rolls around, making Williams the proverbial one-legged man in an ass kicking contest. I’m sorry, this team is just so retarded.
Passing Defense- 7.52 Yards Per Attempt, 31st in NFL, WEAKNESS; 37 Sacks, 14th in NFL
I guess maybe the logic in drafting Williams was to try and strengthen the one area of the team that wasn’t completely terrible last season. Still, when you’re losing all the time, teams tend not to throw the ball against you, which kind of defeats the purpose of having a great pass rushing end. The Cow Skulls also signed former Ravens’ end Anthony Weaver this offseason, who had 2 sacks last year. So after adjusting from playing on the Ravens’ defense to playing on the Texans defense, my calculations have him at negative 3.1 sacks this year. I think my calculato’s broken. The team’s best pass rusher last season was linebacker Shantee Orr, who had 7 sacks. But that was when the Texans were playing a 3-4. Linebackers don’t get 7 sacks in a 4-3 scheme, which they’ll be playing this year, so Sashee Shantee is kind of SOL there I guess. He better worrrrk.
In the secondary, Philip Buchanon was an unmitigated disaster as a high priced free agent last year. The Texans didn’t get anyone better this offseason, so he’ll get every opportunity to suck again. Dunta Robinson is actually pretty good at the other corner, he’s just on a really bad team. I feel bad for him.
Kicking Game- 76.5% FG Accuracy, 24th in NFL, WEAKNESS
Kris Brown was really bad last year. He was 12-17 from 30 to 39 yards, which is just inexcusable for an NFL kicker. The Texans are reportedly working with him to get him not to suck so bad. Kubiak told the Houston Chronicle regarding Brown, “He’s been a very solid kicker in this league for many, many years. And nobody is harder on themselves than Kris is, so I expect him to bounce back and do a great job.” I’ll be harder on Kris than Kris is. I’ll beat Kris’ ass down. I’ll make that bitch cry. He’s 5-11, 205, I’m 5-10 187. Let’s do this.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
I hope you all like watching Sean Salisbury cry, because you’ll see a lot more of that, as he weeps every Sunday about how David Carr has no protection. I wish there was a team of media experts who could make excuses for me when I suck at my job. Nobody makes excuses for me though. I’m more the Gus Frerotte or Kerry Collins type, that everyone likes to find fault with, because it makes them feel better about themselves. I hate everybody. The Texans suck all the time for the same reason the Cubs do, instead of kicking asses to the curb when they have people who don’t get the job done, they make excuses for them, because it’s easier to do that than to admit they made a mistake by employing them in the first place. That’s fine, they can keep on sucking, I don’t care.
Andre 1000 (Yards)? The Texans Hope So.
THAT’S A WRAP
That’s it for this week! Check back next week sometime why don’t ya, I’ll be pontificating on the NFC West. Until that time, check out this rogue’s gallery:
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