East Coast Bias: Are You Ready…

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Here’s the one problem with the Mets this year: they’re probably not going to play another meaningful game until October. You can pretend that the games against the Braves really matter, but they don’t. At this point, the only people clinging to the “I’m not counting Bobby Cox out until he’s mathematically eliminated from contention” are just doing their best not to jinx the season. These guys are afraid to say anything lest some cataclysmic event happens to ruin the Mets’ chances. Sometimes, when you have three guys on your squad that have legit MVP chances, you just have to admit you have a good team. To put it in perspective, with 46 games left to play, if the Mets went 20-26 the braves would have to go 37-9 just to TIE. Barring both a major meltdown by the Mets and a crazy run by a Braves team who still has 4 starters on the DL, it’s not going to happen. No matter what oogly baseball gods people think are watching, the Mets are going to be in the post-season. Now it’s just a matter of not melting then.

The Met fan really needs to get past this. Maybe it will take some post-season success, but right now, it’s the biggest difference between the Met fan and the Yankee fan. The Mets are far and away the best team in the National League and the Met fan is waiting for it to end. The Yankee fan is in a tight, 4-way dogfight, and they know the Yankees are going to come out on top, because that’s what the Yankees do, and everyone else is just in denial. The Yankee fan knows this even though they are running headlong into the hardest stretch of schedule they have all season. Starting last week, the Yankees have and have had, in order, the White Sox (1-2), Angels (1-2 who own them), the Orioles (the only break), a 5-bagger against the Red Sox in Fenway, the Mariners, the Angels (who still own them), the Tigers, and the Twins. The Yankees don’t have another “fluff” stretch until September 4th when they face the Royals, Orioles, and Devil Rays before facing the Red Sox once more at home, and finishing the season against the Devil Rays, Orioles, and Blue Jays. Let me be the first to say: if the Red Sox don’t finish up August with some kind of cushion, let’s say 3 games, they have no shot to hold the Yankees off. The Red Sox’ September looks a lot like the Yankees’ August and while the Yankees will be closing the season against sub-.500 teams, the Red Sox can look forward to the Twins and White Sox. Not a good place for Boston to be.

But, as it’s getting toward the middle of August it’s time to start thinking of that other sport starting up soon. That means it’s time for Daniels’ first annual over/under selections. The bets are based on Pinnacle Sports lines as of Sunday. We’ll handle the AFC this week and go for the NFC next week.

AFC EAST

Miami Dolphis (9 wins): Thus far this season, the Dolphins seem to be the sweetheart pick to go to the Superbowl with reasons ranging from “The Patriots are ripe for the picking” to “Daunte Culpepper will function much better in this system.” This system still doesn’t really have a running back (other than Culpepper) and they still have to face the Patriots twice. The Dolphins have on the surface a fluffy schedule with the Bills twice, the Jets twice, the Titans, Packers (yes, they’re on the fluff list this year), and Lions before closing the season in what may be a Wild Card play-in match vs the Colts. All this being said, the Dolphins can clear 9, but it won’t be enough to win the division. Over; 10-6.

New England Patriots (10.5): This is Brady’s division until he proves otherwise, and the Pats’ schedule is going to lead to another whole season of Bill Simmons complaining that there’s an NFL conspiracy to keep the Patriots out of the playoffs since it ruins the whole “the salary cap gives parity” idea (hint: it doesn’t; it means no veterans get to retire on the team they became famous for playing on). Minus some questionable officiating and a complete meltdown by the Patriots’ offense they still may have made the AFC Championship game. Regardless, Martin Gramatica isn’t Vinateri, but he’s no slouch, and they’re still fielding Dillon, Brady, Branch, and Brown. The Patriots are still going to be fine. Over; 12-4.

Buffalo Bills (6.5): Three weeks until kickoff and still no definitive idea of who their quarterback is. An owner who would rather complain about how the new CBA is going to hurt “small market teams” rather than trying to get a winning team on the field. That other other New York team is going to continue to run itself into the ground over the next few years which is ultimately going to wind up with them on the express train to Los Angeles, San Antonio, or Las Vegas; and that makes me sad. Like 1000 other dying towns in New York, Buffalo is dying. The loss of their NFL franchise is going to be one of the final nails. It’s unfortunate that the New York media pretends the Bills don’t exist and, as an upstater by birth, I feel like I should support them; but it’s always been, and always will be, the Giants for me. Under; 6-10.

New York Jets (6): Speaking of the other team in New York, the six may as well be the over/under on the number of games Chad Pennington plays this year. The Jets are a victim of a salary cap, proving the theory that one bad signing can ruin your team for years. Pennington signed a $64 million, 7-year contract in 2004. Since then, he hasn’t played a full season and has undergone shoulder surgery twice. The Jets restructured his contract this year into an incentive laden deal, but like the 49ers before him, the Jets are going to be under the weight of that contract for years to come. Brooks Bollinger or Patrick Ramsey will probably be starting before the bye week. Another long season probably in store for Gang Green.

For the record, the Jets should really stop causing so many issues with the new stadium. If the Giants had wanted the the West Side Stadium, it would have happened. You’re the other team guys, deal with it or get better. Under; 5-11

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans (5.5): Next. Under; 5-11

Indianapolis Colts (11.5): Welcome to the year in which Peyton Manning officially becomes Dan Marino. He’s now a pinpoint accurate quarterback with no dominant running back. Without Edge, there’s nothing keeping the defense honest, and when the defense doesn’t have to be honest, they can rush Peyton. Once Peyton gets flustered, Peyton loses accuracy. This is why he’s bad in the playoffs. Once he faces top caliber defenses, he’s not as good. My bold prediction of the season? The Colts eek into the playoffs this year because of the Jags ridiculous schedule.Under; 9-7

Tennessee Titans (5.5): For a team in this division, their schedule sucks. They have the bad luck of drawing San Diego, Dallas, Miami, Washington, New York Giants, Philly, and New England; besides having to play the Colts and the Jags twice. I don’t know who they pissed off, but you could be looking at the worst team in the league this year. Under; 3-13

Jacksonville Jaguars (9.5): Another sweetheart pick for the Superbowl this year. It seems like Jacksonville is always right up there but 9.5 is a tall order for a team with a schedule like the one they have coming up. They have to face the same teams I mentioned vs the Titans, with the added bonus of Pittsburgh and Kansas City. Nonsense schedule. I don’t think there’s any way this team takes 10 games and, if they do, you could be looking at the Superbowl champions. Under; 8-8

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (10): In the age of “parity”, the Broncos are one team that is just consistently good. Call it the altitude advantage or the fact the organization could apparently turn me into a 1,000-yard workhorse running back, but the Broncos are always in the Mix. They have an awful, awful schedule this season, though, and I just feel like LJ will be enough to give the Chiefs the edge they need. Push; 10-6

Kansas City Chiefs (9.5): They won 10 last year in the AFC and it wasn’t even enough to swing a Wildcard berth. A team with LJ is probably not going to win less than 10, and Herm Edwards will likely be enough to coach them to a couple more. Over… significantly; 12-4

Oakland Raiders (6): Aaron Brooks is already mouthing wise to the media about Randy Moss. ‘Nuff said. Under: 4-12

San Diego Chargers (9): LDT (Yes, as a Giant fan I refuse to call him LT), like LJ, is probably good for nine wins himself. However, deal with the fact you have a starting quarterback who’s been in the league 2 years and thrown 30 total passes. While some might call this “seasoning”, I call it a question mark. In the Chargers’ favor, in the first half of the season, they play 2 teams who had an over .500 record in 2005. Phil Rivers is going to make mistakes; it’s to be expected, but I don’t buy it as a 10 win team. Under; 8-8.

AFC NORTH

Cincinnati Bengals (9): Julie De Rossi. The organ donor whose tissue was implanted into Carson Palmer’s knee could be the person who the Bengals’ season revolves around. The season is more a test of modern medical science than anything else, and could elevate Carson Palmer to hero status amongst the organ donor crowd. Assuming the knee holds up, over. The Board Room likes the overcoming adversity angle. Over; 10-6

Pittsburgh Steelers (10.5): They lost Bettis. While Bettis was unfair in short yardage situations, they replaced him with 5-11, 241 lb rookie named Cedric Humes. They should be fine there. The only thing keeping the Steelers from not getting back to at least the AFC Championship is a quarterback with a scrambled brain and the difficulty of repeating as Superbowl Champion. Over; 11-5

Cleveland Browns (6.5): It’s the Browns. Under; 6-10.

Baltimore Ravens (7.5): It’s the Browns. Under; 6-10.

Quick Hits

  1. Maddux retired 22 straight batters and threw only 68-pitches in 8 innings of work on Sunday Night Baseball. I didn’t mean it at first, but maybe there really IS something to be said for trying to win when your team’s gimmick is sucking.
  2. The White Sox are now only 5.5 games behind the Tigers after they put up a 5 game slide vs. a White Sox 4 game winning streak. Maybe this division isn’t quite sealed up just yet?
  3. Luke Hudson of the Royals broke a record. After earning wins against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers in his last three starts, he gave up 11 runs (7 before the first out) in the first inning to the Cleveland Indians. Ah the Royals