Let it go
This may be more directed to my co-workers, but enough with the cheap owner comments about the Cardinals. It’s the “in” thing right now. Everyone that makes one of these comments, just remember:
A. Baseball is a business. You wouldn’t put your business in financial trouble just to be the top company for a year.
B. The Cardinals are technically a small market ball club. They rank 25th in population of MLB cities and they are 26th in the TV market. They don’t make the money most other clubs make; we should feel lucky that our payroll at $90 million.
C. Until someone gives me a solid alternative to what should happen, just keep quiet. When someone complained to me this past week, I asked him that and he didn’t have an answer.
D. Trading for some player we will never get is not a realistic option. We won’t end up with Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. We couldn’t take on Bobby Abreu (a 1/3 of our payroll is already tied up to Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds this year). Money and prospects are both problems.
E. My theory is playing meaningful games through the end of the season will be better for the team. The last 2 years they rested players because of the huge lead; the result was a rusty team in the playoffs. Look at the wild card teams each year: they come into the playoffs on fire. Houston went to World Series last year, and the Red Sox and Marlins both won the 2 years before that.
Do I think this team is as good as the last 2 years? No. Are they a World Series contender? Possibly. Like I said, this year will be good for the team.
Visiting the Committee
The Astros have decided to go with the “Closer by Committee” option now that Brad Lidge has faltered again. This can work with the right guys, but do the Astros have them (all major league experience listed):
Dave Borkowski – (6-14, 5.66, 0-1 saves) A career journeyman who has pitch 107.2 innings since the beginning of 2002. He’s never saved a game. He was signed as a minor league free agent before the season started.
Trevor Miller – (11-14, 4.56, 6-14 saves) Another journeyman, who was released from Tampa Bay. Doesn’t have a good track record in the save department.
Chad Qualls – (14-6, 3.62, 1-6 saves)
Russ Springer – (25-38, 4.98, 8-27 saves) We’re starting to see a theme here: journeymen. Springer has been around more than a $2 whore on nickel night.
Dan Wheeler – (9-17, 3.94, 9-15 saves) One of the brighter spots out of the bullpen, but has 6 blown saves in 15 opportunities. He could be a solid option with more experience.
Brad Lidge – (17-16, 3.23, 98-116 saves) Considered by most to be one of the top closers, Lidge has fallen on hard times. He did just get a save Saturday night, but isn’t see the opportunities he used to. See below for more on Lidge.
None of the above pitchers appear to be solid closers by themselves, but a couple have the possibilities for saves using only their strong points. It’s the same problem the Red Sox had when they tried it. Keeping Lidge and Wheeler, and adding someone like a Mike Timlin or Scott Williamson (both of whom have closing experience) would help a lot. Other possibilities on the 40-man roster:
Ezequiel Astacio – (5-6, 6.02, 0-0 saves) Astacio looked like the best player the Astros got in the Billy Wagner deal coming into the season. He has taken a step back after a few good starts last year, and is now stuck at Triple A.
Philip Barzilla – (0-0, 0.00, 0-0) Your basic interchangeable middle reliever. He doesn’t have closer stuff, and he won’t see a save opportunity. He’s gotten 1 out this year and was just sent to the minors.
Mike Gallo – (4-3, 4.11, 0-5 saves) He’s spent most of the season down in the minors after having a few good seasons as a set up man. Just hasn’t put it together for his rare save opportunity.
Fernando Nieve – (3-3, 3.98, 0-0) The best thing for Nieve would be to keep starting, but with better prospects like Jason Hirsh and Taylor Buchholz he may not get the opportunity. It couldn’t hurt to try him out.
Chris Sampson – (1-0, 3.52, 0-0) See Barzilla. Also a spot starter, so he would be more suited to long relief (his 1 win was in his only start).
Nieve is the best option here: his numbers out of the bullpen this year for the Astros have been pretty good. While some teams wouldn’t want to throw a rookie into the closer role, look at Bobby Jenks with the White Sox last year: he was thrown in and hasn’t looked back. Gallo deserves a look, but the 0-5 in save opportunities could scare the team.
Destruction of a Closer
(Please note: This was actually written during the previous Lidge Meltdown. Any stat used was through mid-June)
While Albert Pujols is getting a lot of credit for the destruction of Brad Lidge, there is more to the story than 1 October at bat. (This was inspired by Daniels)
According to Will Carroll’s Under the Knife at Baseball Prospectus:
What’s wrong with Brad Lidge? Lidge isn’t suffering from post-Pujols syndrome. Like most closers and like most pitchers with violent mechanics, he’s going through a down period after a dominant period. Some come back, some don’t and there’s no way to tell where he’s headed at this stage. Lidge’s injury history is a negative, though he has always come back effectively.
I asked will about this and he thinks he will rebound. I also asked for similar situations, and he mentioned Dan Kolb, John Rocker, and Armando Benitez. Kolb doesn’t have the velocity of the others, and he really hasn’t done anything since leaving Milwaukee. Rocker and Benitez are the most similar, and they show that some pitchers can come back to be a solid closer.
Other factors to remember are his injury history (he had Tommy John surgery before he made it to the Majors) and sudden increase in workload from 2003 to 2004. These could have lead to his lower velocity, his reliance on his breaking pitches, and his loss of control. Here are Lidge’s career stats (playoffs included):
Notice the increase in ERA, WHIP, Walks per 9 innings, and Home Runs per 9 since 2004 (Lidge’s peak year). He also decreased in Strikeouts per 9 and Strikeout-to-Walk ratio, both of which can be used to monitor control with the Walks and Home Runs per 9.
My personal take is he will recover. He has bounced back from injuries in the past, and whether this is injury related or not, he will be back. He is also working on new pitches to try to get back to where he was. His number may not be the same, but he won’t be a Todd Jones or Jose Mesa type.
Mechanics in Pitching
This conversation with a friend/co-worker got me thinking about pitching mechanics for a topic (he likes to come up with possible trades, and I shoot them down):
Matt: Mark Mulder & Anthony Reyes for Miguel Cabrera & Dontrelle Willis, do it!!
Me: I wouldn’t do it for the simple fact that no one will be able to correct Dontrelle’s screwed up mechanics.
Matt: That is why you are not a major league manager or GM.
Me: Look at the players that had similar mechanics to him: Mark Fidrych, Hideo Nomo, Kaz Ishii. All were successful at first because their deliveries surprised the hitters. As time went on, hitters started to pick up on the pitches and got used to the delivery. All 3 declined a couple of years into their careers. Nomo was able to switch between the NL and AL a few times to revitalize himself; after time, that didn’t help either.
I have made it known that I am not a Willis Fan. Nothing against him personally, but his mechanics drive me crazy. His main way to be the hitter is the way he hides the ball in his delivery. I have always believed that the more hitters he faced, the more hitters would solve his delivery. It appears that is happening now. During the WBC, Willis got knocked around and it was believed he changed something. When he went back to the Marlins, he couldn’t get back on track. He has a good game here and there, but he is nowhere as good as he was last year.
As far as his comps, Fidrych could be crossed off. He had a knee injury the second year of his career, and that could have led to the arm problems. He was never figured out, but I think he would have been in time.
Nomo started his American career dominating hitters. He would lead the National League in Ks. His unique delivery also made him second in walks. After a few years of great starts, Nomo soon began to be hit around. His numbers dropped, and so he was bouncing from team to team trying to continue his career. In his second season in the American League, he looked like the pitcher he started out as. He continually fooled hitters, most of whom he had never faced, and looked dominant again. Soon, the hitters would start to hit again. He has bounced around since then.
Ishii, much like Nomo, fooled hitters with a unique delivery. He also issued walks like they were going out of style. Part of his decline was accelerated by a line drive to the face his first season. Another difference from the others was the fact that Ishii couldn’t make it through the second half of the season (Japanese seasons are shorter than the Major League season).
These two, in my opinion, accurately show what a unique delivery can do for a pitcher, and my show what Dontrelle has in store. I think his struggles this year are a sign of that. I could be completely wrong, but I would pass on him.
Finding the Pulse
Football talk in a special 2 part IP Sports Radio.
NCAA Preview part 2.
Trent’s boxing recap.
Goodbye Kurt.
Controversy covered.
Beerfest.
Comics + Wrestling = Good read.
Be sure to send me your hall of fame picks. I’ve gotten a few, but would like more. E-mail, post in the forums, or send me a pm on the forums (user name wolverine0712). Thanks.
