Preview: PRIDE FC Final Conflict Absolute 2006: Open-Weight GP Tournament Finals
INTRO
Hi, I’m Gordi Whitelaw. You may remember me from such columns as: Pro Wrestling Entrance Themes to Help you Score with Smart People and The Art of Wrestling’s Japanese Vacation. If so, you may remember that I am very much of the opinion that Japanese Professional Wrestling is far superior to mainstream American Pro Wrestling. You might even think that I am about to tell you how much better Japanese MMA is than American MMA, or that PRIDE rules and UFC stinks.
Don’t worry, I’m not going to do that. I like PRIDE more than I like UFC, but not all that much more. Both have a ton of strong points, and I think that we as MMA fans are blessed to be able to watch both. I also think that some of the smaller MMA organizations put on fights from time to time that rival the best matches in the big organizations. I plan to get into all of that stuff later. For now, let’s talk about the upcoming PRIDE card.
THE BIG SHOW
PRIDE Final Conflict Absolute will be held at Saitama Super Arena on September 10, 2006. The card will see the culmination of the Open-Weight Grand Prix tournament that began at Total Elimination Absolute on May 5th, and continued at the superb Critical Countdown Absolute on July 1. In theory, the tournament was supposed to match up fighters from all the different weight classes, to determine once and for all just who is the best fighter in PRIDE. In practice, it was more or less another Heavyweight tourney, with a few pumped up Light-Heavyweights thrown into the mix.
Both of the GP semifinal matches look amazing on paper, and both are very tough to call. They are also set up so that the final bout will almost certainly be a classic striker vs. grappler battle. The rest of the card, with one exception, looks to be more than worthy of supporting such a huge event.
THE TOURNAMENT MATCHES
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Wanderlei “The Axe Murderer” Silva
These two have met once before, at PRIDE 20 . The match was contested under special rules, with five three-minute rounds (usually the first round goes ten minutes in PRIDE). The fight ended in a draw, and frankly it didn’t feature a whole lot of action. I’d guess that the re-match will be a whole lot more exciting, as the promise of a berth in the tournament finals should be enough to get both men to take some risks.
Cro Cop’s left leg is the deadliest weapon in MMA. His lightning-fast high kick can knock out anyone at any time, with the possible exception of PRIDE heavyweight champion Fedor Emelianenko. After losing to Fedor at Final Conflict 2005 last August, Filipovic fought two lackluster fights (by his high standards) against Josh Barnett and Mark Hunt. There were rumours that Cro Cop had suffered a foot injury, and speculation that he might be burning out as a result of accepting too many fights. He’s come back with a vengeance in this tournament, though, crushing Ikuhisa “The Punk” Minowa in just over a minute, then forcing tough as nails judoka Hidehiko Yoshida to quit by repeatedly and powerfully kicking his leg out from under his leg.
PRIDE Middleweight Champion Wanderlei Silva was given a first-round bye after being chosen to replace Fedor, who was having surgery on his injured hand. He is probably the toughest fighter on the planet, pound for pound. He has Iceman-type knockout power in his disproportionately gigantic fists, but his big weapons are his vicious knees, and the brutal soccer kicks and stomps that he unleashes when his opponent hits the ground. Silva has the killer instinct, and once he senses that his opponent is hurt, he is unrelenting in his furious desire to finish the fight. That instinct was on full display in his second-round bout against Kazuyki “Ironhead” Fujita at Critical Countdown in July.
Prediction: Both Cro Cop and Silva have been in classic form in their tournament bouts so far. It’s very likely that this rematch will be an all-out stand up war. Both men have knockout power, but I’d give a slight edge to Cro Cop because he is a more precise striker, and Silva’s wide, looping punches can leave him open against that type of fighter. This really could go either way, but I’m calling for Cro Cop by KO in Round 2
Josh “The Babyface Assassin”Barnett vs. Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira
This is a dream match. Barnett is the former King of Pancrase, and the man who beat Couture for the UFC Heavyweight belt, convincing Randy Couture to drop down to a lower weight class. Nogueira is the world’s greatest submission fighter and my personal favourite mixed martial artist.
Since losing twice in a row to Cro Cop (once by fluke injury and once by decision) Barnett has been on a tear, submitting three tough fighters in a row. He took out Fedor’s brother Aleksander in the first round with a nasty-looking keylock, then forced the favoured Mark Hunt to tap to a Kimura two minutes into their bout at Critical Countdown. He looks to be in great shape, and he is certainly hyped up for his match with Minotauro.
Nogueira has faced Fedor three times without winning. One of their fights was declared a no contest due to a cut, and the other two saw the decision go to the Russian after three rounds of brutal action. Other than that, Minotauro has won every fight he’s been in since October, 2000.
Prediction: Minotauro has never been submitted in a Mixed Martial Arts match. Unlike many submission specialists, Big Nog is also a trained boxer. There is no advantage to Barnett in the stand-up. His only hope is to take Nogueira down and stay on top long enough that the judges vote in his favour. I don’t see that happening, but I can imagine that Barnett will be good enough to keep the action going for two rounds. I see Nogueira winning by Judges’ Decision.
Reserve Match: Aleksander “The Frank Stallone of MMA” Emelianenko vs. Sergei “Fragile Shoulders” Kharitonov
If one of the winning semifinalists is unable to continue, the winner of this bout will have the right to take their place. This is important, since it’s at least conceivable that Cro Cop and Silva might beat on one another until neither is able to continue. Both Russian fighters are in danger of settling into a gatekeeper type of role in PRIDE. Aleksander beats the fighters he should beat, but has lost decisively to both Cro Cop and Barnett. Kharitonov once seemed to be a sure thing to join those fighters at the top of the PRIDE Heavyweight heap, but his last two fights have seen him suffer consecutive fluke injuries to his Shoulders. The second injury lost Kharitonov his match against pumped-up Middleweight contender Alistair Overeem. A decisive victory here would redeem Sergei, but a loss might relegate him to the lower levels of the division.
Prediction: If he has sufficiently healed since February, Kharitonov will use positioning and accuracy to overcome Aleksander’s power and agression, and take this one by TKO in the 1st.
THE FINALS
I’m guessing that Cro Cop will face Big Nog in the finals, and I really hope that’s how it works out. Their first meeting produced one of the greatest MMA battles of all time, as Nogueira weathered the storm of Mirko’s offense, absorbing huge amounts of punishment as he worked himself into position to sink a submission. If they meet again here, I’d give Minotauro the likely advantage, since he’ll probably take less punishment from Barnett than Cro Cop does from Silva. This could also end up being the best fight of the year.
Prediction: Nogueira, Submission, Round 2.
THE REST OF THE CARD
Yosuke Nishijima vs. Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos
Nishijima is a boxer making the transition to MMA. Cyborg has a very aggressive style along the lines of his Chute Box teammate Wanderlei Silva. Both are coming off of losses, so both should be hungry for a win here. If Cyborg gets too aggressive too quickly, then Nishijima might be able to take advantage with his pinpoint striking. If not, Santos will take the boxer down and tap him out. Prediction: Cyborg by Submission, Round 1.
Lee Tae-Hyun vs. Ricardo “The Mutant” Morais
It would be a huge surprise if this turned out to be a decent fight. Tae-Hyun is a Korean Sumo champion, Morais is a 6’8″ giant who got knocked out in 15 seconds by Aleksander Emelianenko the last time he fought in PRIDE. That was over a year ago, and he’s been training with Minotauro since then, so I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. Prediction: Mutant by Submission, Round 1.
Yoshihiro “Kiss” Nakao vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura
Kiss is mainly famous for getting knocked out by “Texas Crazy Horse” Heath Herring before their bout had started, after Nakamura planted one on Herring’s lips while the ref was giving his instructions. Nakamura is Hidehiko Yoshido’s protege, and one of Japan’s top Judoka. Prediction: Nakamura by 1st Round submission.
Ricardo Arona vs. Alistair “Demolition Man” Overeem
These are two of the contenders in PRIDE’s stacked middleweight division. Overeem looked great in beating a true heavyweight in Kaharitonov at PRIDE 31, but he seemed under-prepared and out of shape in subsequent losses to Fabricio Werdum and to Minotauro’s confusingly-named younger brother Antonio Rogerio “Minotoro” Nogueira. Arona may be PRIDE’s most physically powerful middleweight fighter. He shocked the MMA world by beating Wanderlei Silva in last year’s middleweight tournament, before losing to Silva’s teammate Mauricio Rua in the finals. He also lost the rematch with the Axe Murderer. I’d guess that Arona is hungry for a win after following up his biggest victory with consecutive losses, but I think he’ smart enough to avoid taking unnecessary chances against Overeem. Prediction: Arona by Decision.
Mauricio”Shogun” Rua vs. Cyrille “Snake” Diabate
Shogun beat Overeem and Arona in the same night to win the 2005 GP. Like Kharitonov, Shogun is coming back from an injury suffered at PRIDE 31. His arm was broken during a takedown by American wrestler Mark “The Hammer” Coleman. Diabate is a French striker who’s mainly competed in the independent promotion DEEP. If Shogun is completely healthy, he should have no problems overcoming Diabate’s reach advantage and taking care of the Snake. Prediction: Rua 1st Round KO.
FINAL THOUGHTS
On paper, this looks to be a great card. I can hardly wait to see how the tournament plays out, and I’m looking forward to sharing my thoughts and hearing what you have to say once it’s all over. If you’d like to send feedback, please feel free to click here (that’s mr.gordi at gmail dot com). I’ll most likely answer you.
Thanks for reading!
