Craig Russell is here once again to give you his thoughts on the upcoming Fall season of TV. He breaks down all of the 5 major networks. He tells you which new shows look promising, which new shows are likely to stink, which days are the strongest and weakest, and what each network needs to do to improve their overall standing in the ratings war. Lets take a look at his preview of the Fall TV season…
It’s time to go network-by-network, and determine who has the strongest overall programming schedule. We begin with FOX, since they’re first out of the gate…
What a strange animal FOX is. Their three most successful shows don’t even begin airing until after the New Year (American Idol, 24 and their newest smash hit So You Think You Can Dance). They seem to have a less-than stellar, random mixture of new and returning programs. And yet despite this, they’re still the closest rival to CBS in the ratings wars.
Another strategy that FOX has used in the past: debuting programs earlier than their competitors. They started off on Mondays with the second season premiere of Prison Break, followed by one of their freshmen dramas Vanished – a mystery revolving around the disapperance of a prominent senators young wife. It wasn’t very good, but it still could score ratings-wise.
FOX doesn’t stop there, rolling out eight more debuts before any other network gets going. With six new shows scattered over four nights, a lot is riding on at least one comedy and one drama catching on.
Justice, from CSI producer Jerry Bruckheimer, centers on four lawyers teaming up to tackle their firms toughest cases. But is second year Bones a strong enough lead-in on Wednesdays, especially considering it’s going up against Lost and Criminal Minds?
Even more questionable is pairing rock-solid House with Standoff on Tuesday. The premise? FBI hostage negotiators who make out in between tense life-and-death situations. The promos can’t seem to decide whether we’re supposed to take it seriously.
Anyone at FOX who tells you they haven’t completely given up on Thursday is just plain lying. ‘Til Death will give The War at Home a run for its money as the worst comedy on television. And it’s pretty clear that this will be the final season for The O.C. – whose college years will be short-lived.
There’s also Simon Cowell’s Celebrity Duets, where established singers are paired with non-musical celebrities; and The Winner – a mid-season replacement about a rich and successful man looking back on his not so rich and successful days. Sounds like it could be decent.
I’d say Monday’s Prison Break/Vanished duo is FOX’s strongest. And I’m not sure if that’s a compliment or not. The way past its prime Simpsons and way overrated Family Guy will get fair enough ratings on Sunday. But Tuesday and Wednesday are question marks, and Thursday is just a mess. The execs will be praying for January by Halloween…
For the fourth consecutive year, CBS enters the Fall Season as the one to watch. With 17 returning shows (safely more than any other network), they still boast the most stable and consistent lineup.
Starting with Sunday, CBS has a decidedly new look. They’ve significantly
improved the evening with the addition of The Amazing Race and Without a Trace. Cold Case will certainly enjoy the company (which used to be a Sunday Night Movie). Would CBS have pulled this shift had ABC not moved Grey’s Anatomy? As much as I hate to say it, try naming a single show that’s had more of an impact on Fall scheduling than Grey’s Anatomy…
I’m not quite as sold on Monday. As much as I love How I Met Your Mother, its ratings are mediocre. The Class looks like a phony: a third grade reunion? Come on! “From the creators of Friends and Mad About You” isn’t helping, either. Two and a Half Men remains solid, and the network continues to be supportive of Charlie Sheen. And CSI: Miami is probably safe for at least two more seasons. But don’t expect the same for New Adventures of Old Christine.
Tuesday will be one of CBS’ strongest nights, with the momentum building NCIS and The Unit leading into their most promising new drama Smith. Created by ER‘s John Wells, it stars the very likable Ray Liotta (along with very likable co-star Virginia Madsen) as a family man with a con-side. Should be a winner – although competing with Law & Order: SVU won’t be easy.
CBS looks slightly vulnerable on Wednesday. They open on very shaky ground with the nuclear paranoia of Jericho, which in my book is even money to be the first cancelled drama. CBS follows with the surprise hit Criminal Minds and the New York-based weak-link of the CSI machine. The thing about Wednesday: it’s Lost at 9, then everything’s up for grabs.
Make no mistake: with Survivor and CSI, CBS will continue to thrive on Thursday. But moving Without a Trace, plus new neighbor Grey’s Anatomy, will undoubtedly cost them some viewers. Their new 10pm occupant Shark, with James Woods, doesn’t scream sure thing either.
Which brings us to Friday, which is fast becoming the new Saturday. CBS offers slightly better-than average fare on such a low-stakes evening. There’s Ghost Whisperer, which surprised everybody by surviving its freshmen year. Don’t count out a sophomore slump, though – remember Joan of Arcadia? Close to Home, a Without a Trace/Cold Case clone, must have been the very last show CBS renewed. And Numb3rs performs quite well in the very thankless 10 pm slot.
Much like Fox, ABC is in dire need of a few new hits. They’ve got three of the top ten dramas in Lost, Grey’s Anatomy, and Desperate Housewives. Now it’s time to start spreading the wealth.
They made a smart, aggressive decision in moving Grey’s Anatomy to Thursday. This places their top three shows over three nights instead of two.
The challenge is to build off their ratings winners. Last season, Invasion didn’t follow Lost strongly enough for the network’s liking. This year it’s The Nine (from the creator of Without a Trace), another drama that connects the lives of strangers – this time who live through a hostage situation. Lost gives up its time slot to Taye Diggs’ Day Break November thru January: think Groundhog’s Day meets The Fugitive. And ABC taps J.J. Abrams once again with Six Degrees, which gets the plum post-Grey’s Anatomy slot on Thursday.
As for other newbies, I’m not too impressed. Brothers & Sisters, with Calista “Ally McBeal” Flockhart, looks forced. But that doesn’t mean it can’t succeed paired with Desperate Housewives (and facing less than stellar competition). Even less promising are the two comedies leading into Grey’s Anatomy: Big Day focuses on the days leading up to a couple’s wedding; and Notes from the Underbelly chronicles a couple’s lives changing with news of a baby on the way. Can you hear me yawning?
Two new arrivals that could be interesting. Knights of Prosperity, from the creators of Ed. The premise: A janitor’s get-rich quick scheme to rob Mick Jagger’s apartment. Certainly runs the risk of becoming a one-note joke in a hurry, though. But I did say could be interesting. Then there’s Ugly Betty, which is receiving quite a lot of positive buzz. So what is it doing on Fridays at 8pm, leading into the Northern Exposure rip-off Men in Trees? If it’s really any good, Ugly Betty will likely be moved to an open slot earlier in the week.
ABC’s strongest night could still be Sunday, as long as Desperate Housewives remains watchable. I’m not sold on any of the programs that bookend Lost or Grey’s Anatomy, and that’s a problem. So is the puzzling return of What About Brian, which didn’t win a lot of people over last spring – so what’s going to be different in the fall? And could someone please tell Ted Danson to hang it up? Help Me Help You just looks like a plain waste of time…
Writer’s Note: Ugly Betty has been moved to Thursday, leading into Grey’s Anatomy. The futures of Big Day and Notes from the Underbelly are uncertain…
NBC caused quite a stir last spring when they announced major shakeups to their upcoming 2006 fall schedule. In a few short weeks, we’ll begin to know if these programming strategies pay off.
It all started when ABC announced it was splitting up the two-headed monster of Desperate Housewives and Grey’s Anatomy – moving Grey’s Anatomy to Thursday. Aaron Sorkin (West Wing) wasn’t interested in the competition for his new drama Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip. So Kevin Reilly, President of NBC Entertainment, gave Mr. Sorkin his wish – moving Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip to the much less vulnerable 10pm timeslot on Monday.
So how does Monday look? Good, not great. New reality hit Deal or No Deal leads into the very questionable Heroes: a group of ordinary people realizing they’re not so ordinary. Sounds more like a movie pitch to me. Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip will probably succeed, and maybe even take some eyeballs away from CSI: Miami.
Other new programs of note…
30 Rock: Whereas Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip takes a dramatic view backstage at a late-night comedy series, this one takes the comedic road. It’s got Tina Fey and Alec Baldwin going for it, which is nice. But it’s on Wednesday at 8:30, and lacking support from the shows that surround it. NBC might have some more shuffling to do.
Kidnapped: Also on Wednesday, and following The Biggest Loser – which doesn’t seem like a good fit. Hopefully for NBC, this is better than Fox’ similarly-premised Vanished.
Friday Night Lights: Leading off Tuesday night, backed by Law & Order: Criminal Intent and Law & Order: SVU, it should have a fair opportunity to succeed. But sports dramas have been iffy in prime-time, and it faces stiff competition from Gilmore Girls, House, and NCIS.
The Black Donnellys: A mid-season replacement from the writing team that brought you the overrated Crash; revolving around four Irish brothers and their life of crime in Hell’s Kitchen, NYC. It slides into ER‘s 10pm Thursday block this coming January.
NBC also scored a major coup in getting the NFL on Sundays, September thru December. They just need to come up with a better name for their pre-game show than Football Night in America.
And three veteran dramas most likely to be phased out (and by no mistake delegated to Fridays): Crossing Jordan, Las Vegas, and Law & Order.
Overall, NBC is making some steps in the right direction: they have two of the five most promising freshmen entries. But 2006-07 will not be the season where they recapture their late-90s glory days. Call it a work in progress…
First things last: The WB and UPN forming an alliance was the right thing to do. Ten years and barely a blip on the primetime radar, it was really the only option. That said, I just wish I was more excited about the CW’s fall schedule.
The network has two strikes against it before ever airing a program. They lack a new show with any buzz whatsoever, and they didn’t keep Everwood. If there’s one thing the CW can boast, it’s that they have some of the strongest shows on television with Gilmore Girls and Veronica Mars. Everwood fits that mold. One Tree Hill doesn’t. And what does bringing 7th Heaven back from the dead really accomplish? Sure, it always delivered ratings for the WB. But 7th Heaven will have nothing to do with the success or failure of the network in the long run. And most 7th Heaven viewers probably aren’t sampling anything else.
So what else does the CW have going for it? America’s Next Top Model is one of the better reality shows, and will do double duty on Sunday and Wednesday. Everybody Hates Chris heads a fair enough Sunday lineup along with Girlfriends. And you have to like the Tuesday and Thursday pairings of Gilmore Girls/Veronica Mars and Smallville/Supernatural respectively (even though I’m not entirely sold that Supernatural‘s here to stay).
But it’s obvious that they’re still not ready to wrestle with the big boys. Until they create a signature CW hit, they’re just using cover material. Whether the CW sinks or swims depends on a drama or comedy that hasn’t even shot its pilot yet.
Will Craig’s predictions end up being right or will they be horribly wrong? You’ll just have to watch TV yourself and find out only at the new PrimeTimePulse.com!
