Sunday Pancakes: Game-day Coverage

WEEK 4

Hard as it is to believe, here we are, at the quarter pole of the season. It’s a good a time as any to step back, and assess your team’s chances of reaching the postseason.

The first thing I will do is throw this stat at you. Last year there were 12 playoff teams. What were their records after Week 4?

New England 2-2
NY Giants 3-1
Cincinnati 4-0
Washington 3-1
Pittsburgh 2-1
Chicago 1-2
Indianapolis 4-0
Tampa Bay 4-0
Jacksonville 2-2
Carolina 2-2
Denver 3-1
Seattle 2-2

So what this tells me, is that if your team doesn’t have at least 2 wins after this weekend, it’s time to pack it in. Which means it’s make or break for the following teams this weekend:

Buffalo Washington Carolina
Miami Green Bay Arizona
Dallas San Francisco

Giants, Steelers, Browns, Texans, Titans, Chiefs, Raiders, Lions, Bucs fans, sorry, your teams are already dead. That’s right, I said your teams are already dead. Good luck with those 1 in 12 odds of making it to the postseason.

So, by process of elimination, the following teams are your teams that are sittin pretty right now. They’ve already got 2 wins.

AFC
New England Baltimore San Diego
NY Jets Indianapolis Denver
Cincinnati Jacksonville

NFC
Philadelphia New Orleans St. Louis
Chicago Atlanta
Minnesota Seattle

So that pretty much sets the stage. Let’s preview the early games.

EARLY GAMES

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (3-0)
AT NY JETS (2-1)
VEGAS SAYS
COLTS 28-19
The Colts are back to being the Old Colts. As in, all offense, all PASSING offense, and no defense. They rank 22nd in the league in defense after 3 weeks, and 24th in rushing offense. The Jets, meanwhile, have been slinging the ball around pretty good themselves. The return of Chad Pennington has resulted in them having the 7th ranked passing offense in the league. The defense has been horrid though. 30th overall, 27th against the pass. The Jets don’t beat teams they aren’t supposed to. They are 2-11 straight up over the last 3 seasons when they are 3 ½ to 9 ½ point dogs. The Colts will win.
FANTASY FACTOR
Start all your Indy receivers if you’ve got em.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (2-0)
AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (3-0)
VEGAS SAYS
CHARGERS 17-15
If you like defense, this is the game for you. You’ve got SD’s 1st ranked D against Baltimore’s 2nd ranked D. The difference is, the Chargers also have the 3rd ranked offense in the NFL. Nobody’s looked better than San Diego so far this season (although games against Oakland and Tennessee haven’t hurt). This is the Chargers first real test, so it will be interesting to see how they fare. Brian Billick’s Ravens are 3-12 straight up as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
FANTASY FACTOR
Don’t start anybody on either of these teams not named Tomlinson or Gates.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (2-1)
AT BUFFALO BILLS (1-2)
VEGAS SAYS
BILLS 18-17
The Vikings are average at everything. Last week, that was almost good enough to get them to 3-0. Almost. They face a Bills team that so far has done a good job of executing Dick Jauron’s running and defense philosophy. The Vikings have the 10th ranked run defense in the league, and that’s come against some pretty good running teams (Washington, Carolina, and Chicago). If the Bills can’t run, they can’t win, and that’s why they won’t win today.
FANTASY FACTOR
Any Vikings receivers are out of the question today. Chester Taylor could have a big day against the Bills 21st ranked rushing defense.

DALLAS COWBOYS (1-1)
AT TENNESSEE TITANS (0-3)
VEGAS SAYS
COWBOYS 23-13
TO is going to play in this game, and Vince Young is going to be getting his first NFL start. So what looks like a dog matchup on paper, is actually one of the more intriguing games of the day. Intriguing is a very hard word to spell.
FANTASY FACTOR
If you’ve got Julius Jones, Terry Glenn, or Drew Bledsoe, today’s the day to start them. Titans are 21st against the pass, 30th against the run.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (1-2)
AT KC CHIEFS (0-2)
VEGAS SAYS
CHIEFS 24-17
Great-o move by the Chiefs, having nobody to back up their 67 year old quarterback going into this season. The Chiefs are 7 point favorites, and that seems to be based on nothing that has happened in calendar year 2006.
FANTASY FACTOR
KC’s giving up 130 yards a game on the ground, so Frank Gore is looking good. Antonio Bryant, on the other hand, isn’t. The Chiefs are 3rd in the league in pass defense.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (3-0)
AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-2)
VEGAS SAYS
PANTHERS 25-17
The Saints are not doing this with mirrors. They’ve been rock solid in every single area so far this year. Carolina’s offense has sputtered, and the defense is giving up 152 yards a game on the ground. The Saints can deal the death blow to the Panthers season today.
FANTASY FACTOR
Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush are great plays this week against the Panthers sucky run defense.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (1-2)
AT ATLANTA FALCONS (2-1)
VEGAS SAYS
FALCONS 24-17
Kurt Warner does get the start this week, despite making some truly baffling decisions in last week’s loss to the Rams. Like I said in this week’s gamefilm review, this can only be explained by the fact that he forgot he doesn’t play for the Rams anymore. Arizona’s got the 28th ranked passing defense in the league, which is OK though, because Michael Vick is in his 5th year of revolutionizing the QB position and doesn’t need to pass. Because you see, it’s better for a QB to run for 70 yards and pass for 110 yards than it is to throw for 250 yards. 180 is more than 250.
FANTASY FACTOR
The Falcons are giving up only 83 rushing yards a game. If Edgerrin James is on your team, you may want to examine other options.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (1-2)
AT HOUSTON TEXANS (0-3)
VEGAS SAYS
DOLPHINS 22-18
The Texans can’t run and can’t play defense. That’s a formula for success if I’ve ever seen one. In the last 3 years they are 0-6 in games when they are home underdogs of 3 ½ points or more. Of course, it’s debatable whether the Dolphins should be favored by 4 points against anybody right now, but this seems like as good a time as any for Daunte Culpepper to have a decent game. Actually, if he can’t have a good game against the Texans, I can’t do anything for him.
FANTASY FACTOR
Start every Dolphin you possibly can.

Okay that does it for the early game previews, I’ll be back at noon giving you up to the minute updates on all the games!

12:15 UPDATE

– Our first score of the day belongs to the Colts. They parlay a Chad Pennington fumble into a 5 yard TD run by Dominic Rhodes, and they lead the Jets 7-0.

– Not far behind are the Chargers, who strike early on a 31 yard pass from Phillip Rivers to Malcolm Floyd?? The Chargers lead Baltimore in a battle of unbeatens.

– The TDs keep on a comin! Damon Huard hits Dante Hall for a 13 yard score. The common theme here seems to be nobody on anybody’s fantasy team gets in the end zone today.

12:30 UPDATE
– The Panthers have to have this game against the Saints, and they are on the board first. Jake Delhomme hits Steve Smith for a 9 yard TD. DeAngelo Williams has 31 yards on 1 carry, DeShaun Foster, 7 yards on 5 carries.

– We expected a defensive struggle in Baltimore, so of course they’re putting out a game that looks like it’s from the WAC conference. McNair finds Daniel Wilcox for a TD, and that game is tied at 7.

– Arizona’s trailing Atlanta 6-0 after a pair of Morten Andersen field goals. The Cards have 6 yards of total offense midway thru the first quarter. Michael Vick already has 52 rushing yards on 2 attempts. Me so solly. Edgerrin James has 5 yards on 7 carries. I’m pretty sure Marcel Shipp could do that. Or Marcel Marceaux, possible Marcel Duchamp, definitely Marcel the Monkey from Friends.

– Even Damon Huard can carve up the SF defense. He’s 6 of 8 for 75 yards and a TD and the Chiefs are up 10-0 on the Niners.

– Bledsoe hits Terry Glenn for a 13 yard TD and the Boys are up 7-3 in Nashville. Terry Glenn has gots to change that mugshot of him that shows up on the interweb. It’s just not a good picture. He looks like an ugly woman.

12:45 UPDATE
– Reggie Bush lost a fumble deep in Carolina territory, wiping out a scoring chance for the Saints.

– Make it 2 TDs for Terry Glenn today, as Dallas leads the Titans 14-3. I find myself in the melancholy position where I have him on one of my fantasy teams, and am playing against him for my other fantasy team. I don’t know what to believe in anymore. Vince Young is 2 of 5 for 9 yards.

– Willis McGahee’s touchdown run has given the Bills a 7-3 lead over Minnesota early in the second quarter.

– Chad Pennington has put the Colts in the Walls of Jerricho. Jerricho Cotchery that is. Ahahahaha. His 31 yard TD catch has tied it at 7. Peyton Manning is 1 of 4 for 9 yards. He sure has brought the suck the last couple of weeks.

1:00 UPDATE

– Larry Johnson, who has only 24 yards on 14 carries, scores from a yard out, and the Chiefs are all over the Niners, 17-0.

– Reggie makes up for his fumble by breaking a 32 yard reception, and the Saints have first and goal looking to tie Carolina at 7.

– A long completion from Vick to Ashley Lelie puts the Falcons deep in Arizona’s red zone, and they are looking to go up 16-3 at home.

– Not so fast. Adrian Wilson picks Vick off and goes 99 yards the other way for a TD. Arizona now leads Atlanta 10-9. That’s the kind of play that ruins a whole season. I’ve seen it happen. I’m thinking Jim Harbaugh for the Bears in Minnesota, 1992.

– The Saints had to settle for a field goal in their trip to the RZ and they now trail 7-3.

1:15 UPDATE
– The Chiefs and Niners have reached halftime, and it’s a blowout. The Chiefs lead 24-0. Damon Huard is 13 of 15 for 152 yards and 2 TDs.

– Indy is getting all they can handle from the Jets. It’s tied 14-14 at halftime. Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai have combined for 80 yards and 2 TDs on 17 carries.

– Atlanta is going to take a 12-10 lead into the locker room against the Cardinals, thanks to 4 field goals. 2 of them by Morten Andersen, 2 by Michael Koenen.

– Miami and Houston are tied at 3 at halftime. Daunte Culpepper has put up 3 points against the Texans in one half. He should have his tour card revoked.

– TO has 3 catches for 73 yards in the first half against Tennessee.

Not a good weekend for anybody fantasy wise right now. At halftime here’s the guys who have TDs:

– Arizona D
– Terry Glenn (2)/Drew Bledsoe (2)
– Joseph Addai
– Dominic Rhodes
– Kevan Barlow
– Jerricho Cotchery/Chad Pennington
– Malcolm Floyd/Phillip Rivers
– Daniel Wilcox/Steve McNair
– Willis McGahee
– Eddie Kennison/Damon Huard
– Dante Hall/Damon Huard
– Larry Johnson
– Steve Smith

And that’s it. Out of that list, I think you’re only a happy camper right now if you’ve got Terry Glenn on your team. Or Damon Huard. The fudge you doin with Damon Huard as your quarterback?

1:45 UPDATE
– Pretty much nothing has changed in any of the games since halftime. Dallas has gotten a Julius Jones touchdown to put them up 21-6, but that’s pretty much it. Let’s look at some stats that have caught my eye.

– Vick’s got 101 yards on 11 carries against the Cardinals. Edgerrin James has 3 yards on 8 carries. How in the hell do you get 3 yards on 8 carries without actually trying to run backwards?

– Vince Young is 9 of 15 for 99 yards in his first start. He’s also turned it over twice, and rushed 3 times for -10 yards.

– Cedric Houston has been running pretty effectively for the Jets. He has 44 yards on 9 carries.

– Steve McNair is doing his best Vince Young imitation. He’s 5 of 14 for 25 yards, an INT, and a fumble. They are pretty much the same player right now. Except one is riding the up elevator, the other is riding the down elevator.

– Two weeks in a row, JP Losman has put up some pretty nice numbers. This week, he’s 18 of 24 for 191 yards. Lee Evans has 6 catches for 83 yards.

– Carolina had been giving up 150 yards a game on the ground prior to today. Against NO’s combo of Bush and McAllister though, they’ve given up only 43 yards on 15 carries.

– Daunte Culpepper has been bad this year, but so has Ronnie Brown. The Dolphins running back continues to disappoint today, with only 27 yards on 9 carries against the woeful Texans defense.

2:00 UPDATE
– Buffalo’s extended their lead over the Vikings to 14-6, thanks to a TD pass from Losman to Peerless Price. Good lord, the dead are rising from their graves and voting Republican.

– Earlier in the game, the Cardinals defense scored on an INT. The Falcons have just returned the favor, as DeAngelo Hall has taken a Kurt Warner pick in, and given the Falcons a 12 point lead over the Cards.

– Marion Barber becomes the latest Cowboy to get in the end zone, giving Dallas a 28-6 lead over Tennessee.

– There must be something to the Peyton Manning/Bill Belichick yips theory. Eric Mangini, whose Jets ranked 30th in the league in defense coming into this game, has devised a foolproof scheme that has limited Manning to 7 completions for 91 yards.

– David Carr has just run it in to give the Texans a 10-6 lead at home against Miami.

2:09 UPDATE
– Mario Williams has recorded a sack. I repeat, Mario Williams has recorded a sack. Quick, someone give Charlie Casserly a cigar.

2:15 UPDATE
– Carr finds Andre Johnson for a TD, putting the Texans up 17-6 over the Dolphins. The catch puts Johnson over 100 yards receiving on the day.

– Meanwhile, the Colts have 3rd and goal from the 1, and fail to get in the end zone as Dominic Rhodes is stopped. They’ll have to settle for a Martin “Autoerotica” Gramatica field goal attempt.

– The kick is good, and the Colts lead 17-14 over the Jets early in the 4th quarter.

– Deuce McAllister punches it in from 3 yards out, and the Saints lead 10-7 at Carolina with 13 1/2 minutes left to play in regulation.

2:30 UPDATE
– Jerrious Norwood broke a 78 yard TD run for the Falcons. I’d say that’s pretty good for the yards per carry average. 1 attempt, 78 yards. Morten Andersen has added a field goal after Kurt Warner’s second fumble of the day, and the Falcons are pasting the Cardinals, 32-10.

– The Jets have 1st and goal on the Colts’ 5 yard line, trailing 17-14 with 8 minutes remaining. Kevan Barlow just took it in, and now the Jets are in front, 21-17.

– Vince Young has thrown his first career touchdown pass, and it was to the wrong team. Bradie James took an errant Young pass into the end zone, and Dallas leads Tennessee 38-14.

– Carolina’s gone back in front of NO thanks to a short pass from Delhomme to Drew Carter. It’s now 14-10 Carolina with 7 minutes left.

– Meanwhile, Dante Hall has his second TD of the game. This one came on a 60 yard punt return, putting the Chiefs up 41-0 on the Niners.

– With Arizona getting blown out, thanks in large part to Kurt Warner turning the ball over and over again, Matt Leinart is in at QB for the Cards.

2:45 UPDATE
– The Falcons have rolled up 257 rushing yards on the Cardinals. Vick and Jerrious Norwood have both gone over 100.

– Matt Leinart’s first drive ended in an INT.

– Dallas got a TD from Tyson Thompson and they lead 45-14 over Tennessee.

– Indy has 3rd and goal on the Jets 5 yard line, trailing 21-17 with 3 minutes left to play. Let’s see what happens….

– Manning hits Byron Fletcher for a 2 yard score, putting the Colts ahead.

– Mamma mia! Justin Miller takes the ensuing kickoff back 103 yards, and the Jets are back ahead, 28-24. 2 minutes left in this great game.

3:00 UPDATE
– DeShaun Foster busts a 43 yard TD run, and the Panthers lead New Orleans 21-10 with under 2 minutes to play.

Many games at critical stages

– Indy has 1st and goal at the Jets 1, trailing 28-24 with a minute left. Now Peyton Manning has RAN it in for his second rushing TD in as many weeks. He’s turning into Fran Tarkenton back there. 31-28 Colts, 50 seconds left, and the Jets have 2 timeouts.

– The Ravens have second and goal on the SD 9 yard line, trailing 13-9 with 46 seconds left. McNair hits Todd Heap for the touchdown! Ravens lead 16-13! They are 34 seconds away from being 4-0 and pulling a huuuge upset.

– Minnesota has pulled within 17-12 after a TD pass from Brad Johnson to Marcus Robinson. The 2 point conversion failed. The Bills have 3 minutes to make disappear.

– The Saints are not dead yet. Marcus Colston busts an 86 yard TD reception, and it’s 21-16 pending a 2 point conversion attempt.

And we also have alot of finals.

– Atlanta 32, Arizona 10
– Dallas 45, Tennessee 14
– KC 41, San Francisco 0

– The Texans have their first win of 2006. The Dolphins had a chance to tie after a Culpepper to Chris Chambers TD, but the 2PC failed, and the Texans hold on for a 17-15 win.

– NO’s onside kick attempt is unsuccessful, and Carolina holds on to deal the Saints their first loss of the year, 21-18.

– The Ravens stop the Chargers after Schottenheimer elects to go for it on 4th and 1, trailing by 3, and eschew a 50 yard field goal attempt that coudl have tied the game. Phillip Rivers was sacked on the play, the Ravens are 4-0, and the Chargers are 2-1.

– The Colts escape East Rutherford with a thrilling 31-28 win over the Jets.

– Buffalo’s running the clock out against the Vikings. Both of those teams look like they will be 2-2 after this one.

Now I start sprinkling in some late game previews:

DETROIT LIONS (0-3)
AT ST. LOUIS RAMS (2-1)
VEGAS SAYS
RAMS 24-19
The return of crazy old Mike Martz to St. Louis. The Lions rank 8th in the league in passing offense, and 29th in rushing offense. So, he’s doing what he was brought into to do, I guess you have to give him that.
FANTASY FACTOR
The Lions have given up only 80 rushing yards a game (mostly because they rank 29th against the pass). Start Stephen Jackson with caution.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (2-1)
AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (3-0)
VEGAS SAYS
BENGALS 26-20
For the second week in a row, the Bengals get a chance to knock off a member of AFC royalty. The Pats are struggling against the pass again this year, ranking 23rd in the league. That’s not a good thing against the Bengals potent attack.
FANTASY FACTOR
Chris Henry, who had a huge game last week for Cincy, won’t play in this game, he’s injured.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-1)
AT WASHINGTON REDSKINS (1-2)
VEGAS SAYS
JAGS 19-16
The Redskins 3rd ranked rushing offense meets the Jags 3rd ranked rushing defense. The outcome of this game hinges on whether we see the good Mark Brunell, or the bad Mark Brunell.
FANTASY FACTOR
Clinton Portis has a tough assignment against a team that has given up 59 rushing yards per game this year.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (0-3)
AT OAKLAND RAIDERS (0-2)
VEGAS SAYS
BROWNS 19-17
This game is a total suckfest, but man I need Braylon Edwards to get me some yards and TDs. I also need Lamont Jordan to suck. He’s pretty good at that.
FANTASY FACTOR
I forsee at least 50 fantasy points for Braylon Edwards..

That’s it for a while, I will be back later this PM with updates on the afternoon games, and a preview of tonight’s big Bears/Seahawks NFC showdown.