You can’t ask for much more in the final days of the season than having some playoff matchups and even a division not wrapped up at the 11th hour. At the time I’m writing this, the Astros and the Cardinals are trying to present the division to one another with each one saying “no, I couldn’t possibly”¦ you take it.” (ed note: as of approval time, the Astros finally forced the division on the Cardinals) This is pretty much the NL Central in a nutshell this year. Do you want the primary reason the AL flattened the NL this season? The best division in baseball (AL Central) played the worst division in baseball (NL Central) for 90 games and went 63-27. Even the Royals had a winning record against the NL Central.
I’m planning on doing a playoff preview but this is what came to me first so I’ll deal with this today and I’ll deal with the playoffs after we know what’s going to happen between the Dodgers/Padres and Tigers/Twins.
That being said, it’s going to be one hell of an October here in New York. I can’t wait.
Most Valuable Player
National League
Who it’s between: Ryan Howard, Carlos Beltran, Albert Pujols
Who won’t win it: As much as it pains me, Beltran’s out of this race. He’s in too strong of a lineup and has a great hitter behind him. No Metropolitan is going to win the MVP this season, the lineup is just too strong.
Who will win it: I’m really not sure how the voting will go here. Howard put the Phillies on his back in the second half and brought them within a game of the wildcard after they were sellers at the trade deadline. The Cardinals did everything they could to choke away a huge division lead to the Astros in the last three weeks. Pujols saved the Cardinals’ season twice in the last two weeks. First, on September 27th against San Diego with a 3-run, walk-off homerun that prevented the Astros from closing to within a half a game. Later, on September 30th, he kicked off a rally against the Brewers’ closer, preventing the Astros from tying. That being said, I think people are in love with Pujols enough that, if it’s close, he gets it.
American League
Who it’s between: Derek Jeter, Joe Mauer, Johan Santana, Jermaine Dye, David Ortiz, Justin Morneau.
Who won’t win it: 33 starts, 24-4, 10 CG, 1 SHO, 238K, 67BB, 2.48 ERA, 0.96 WHIP. That’s Roger Clemens’s line from the 1986 season. He won the MVP and Cy Young that year. Donnie Baseball finished behind him with a .352 average, .962 OPS, 238 hits, and 31 HR in 677 at bats. That’s your bar. Santana’s line for the season: 34 starts, 19-6, 1 CG, 0 SHO, 245K, 47BB, 2.77 ERA, 1.00 WHIP. The difference is, he doesn’t have 20 wins and three guys having career batting years. David Ortiz is out because, despite what he thinks, power numbers alone does not an MVP make. Dye, I think, is out also because of the White Sox’s fade. As another side note, here’s something that I still don’t understand about the David Ortiz as MVP argument. He’s not the best DH in the league (Travis Hafner is) and he’s not even the best hitter on his team (Manny Ramirez is). So why, every season, do we think of Ortiz as DH and Hafner goes unrecognized? Could it have something to do with ESPN being in Connecticut?
Who will win it: Jeter is having a career year and has spent the year getting huge clutch hits and letting A-Rod hang out to dry with the media. Mauer has become the face of the Twins and is having an incredible year, AND he’s a catcher. Call it the same stats in a weaker lineup at a tougher position and you get your answer. Mauer gets the nod, but it will be tight. (Side note: if you wonder why I’m not picking Morneau, same deal: Similar team impact at a tougher position, hasn’t had a feature article in SI, etc).
Cy Young
National League
Who it’s between: Billy Wagner, Trevor Hoffman, five 16 game winners
Who won’t win it: This award someone’s going to win because someone has to. Five guys have 16 wins and Brandon Webb’s 2.88 ERA is the lowest between them. None of them stand out enough to win.
Who will win it: On the other hand, the NL has 2 closers with 40+ saves in Billy Wagner (40, 2.24) and Trevor Hoffman (44, 1.92). Hoffman has the highest profile blown save of the season (the All-Star game). While I think it’s a crime that any closer not nicknamed The Hammer Of God wins a Cy Young before said Hammer, Mo’s always had to deal with 20 game winners in front of him. I think it’s going to go to one of these two closers and probably not the one who didn’t get it done while everyone was watching”¦ again.
American League
Who it’s between: Johan Santana
Who will get it: Johan Santana. I’m not going to pretend Chien Ming Wang is going to put up a fight. Santana has 19 wins (he would have 20 if they needed to start him again to make the playoffs), he leads the league in strikeouts (245), ERA (2.77), and WHIP (1.00). It’s not even close. (Side note: Wang isn’t starting Game 1 because he’s the best pitcher on the Yankees, he’s starting game 1 because he’s significantly better at Yankee Stadium (3.03 vs 4.35) and Torre always starts his big game pitcher in game 3″¦ always. Joe’s the only one who has figured out that game 3 in a short series is the most important. You either slam the door at 2-0, guarantee yourself the ability to get home for game five at 1-1, or stay alive at 0-2. Most teams shouldn’t have their 3-starter start this game, they should have their 2-starter. Other managers don’t get this.)
Manager of the Year
National League
Who it’s between: Willie Randolph, Joe Girardi
Who will win it: Joe Girardi took a team that was suppose to lose 100 games this season and got them close to .500. Willie Randolph took a team who has been New York’s red-headed stepchild and made them legitimate playoff contenders with their top pitcher being hurt for most of the season and a 90-year-old 2-starter. When the Marlins were making their run at the wildcard, I said Girardi was a lock for manager of the year. Since then, they’ve faded and Willie has emerged as a likely suspect (especially considering the rumors now that Girardi desperately wants to be fired so he can take over for Dusty Baker next season). One can argue with a $100 million dollar payroll that anyone should have been able to manage the Mets, but that hasn’t been the case in the past when they paid $100 million for under .500 seasons. Considering the Mets have the only over 90-win record in the National League and more than 10 wins ahead of other division winners, it seems difficult to NOT give Willie the nod.
American League
Who it’s between: Ron Gardenhire, Jim Leyland, Joe Torre.
Who won’t get it: Joe Torre. He’s been mentioned due to his “keeping the team together in the face of all the injuries this year.” I say: come the f*ck on. With all the injuries, Torre had to “get by” with four lock hall of fame players (Jeter, A-Rod, Johnson, Rivera), two Cy Young candidates (Wang, Mussina), $200 million worth of talent, and a $15 million dollar contract to fill in for one of the injured $15 million dollar contracts. Sorry, not happening.
Who will get it: I said around the All-Star break that Leyland could not win another game this season and still get Manager of the Year. Now, I’m not so sure. Gardenhire has managed his $64 million payroll through an impossibly tough division. At the All-Star break, the Twins were 12 games back in the division and 10 games back in the wildcard. On the last day of the season, the Twins clinched the division, giving them the easier matchup agains the A’s and letting Yankee fans world-wide breathe a huge sigh of releife. It’s closer, and if they’d chased White Sox all season, Gardenhire would be a lock. Unfortunately, they’re dealing with a team who haven’t had a winning season since 1993 and spent the years between having 40 and 50 win seasons. Jimmy Leyland and his Marb Reds lock up Manager of the Year.
Rookie of the Year
National League
Who it’s between: The Marlins
Who will win it: Someone mentioned in some column (or maybe it was the Mets TV announcers) that the Marlins have fielded more than 20 rookies at various points this season. It’s probably between Alfredo Amezega, Mike Jacobs, Anibal Sanchez, Hanley Ramirez (good job Red Sox!), and Dan Uggla. I’ll pick Uggla as he’s possibly one of the best second-basemen in the league.
American League
Who it’s between: Jon Papelbon, Francisco Liriano, Justin Verlander, Bobby Jenks, Jered Weaver
Who won’t win it: If Liriano had come back and wrapped the season up strong, I think he would have walked to this award. The fact he came back to the resounding pop of his elbow opens it up. File Papelbon’s shoulder in the same drawer. If you have choices between rookies who played the whole year vs rookies who didn’t, you have to go with the full season players. Bobby Jenks’s 4.00 ERA and debacle of a September will keep him out (0-1, 3/5 saves, 9.82 ERA).
Who will win it: I could file Jered Weaver in the “guys who didn’t play the whole season” category, but I don’t know if you can blame a dumb personnel decision on the player. Weaver won his first 9 big league starts and only gave up 1 run in his first loss. He finishes the season 11-2 with a 2.56 ERA. Verlander finishes the season at 17-9 with a 3.63. He got in a full 186 innings and 30 starts. With those numbers, I have to give it to the guy who played the full season. Verlander is your rookie of the year.
I’m going to try to scrape together a playoff preview Monday night. We’ll see you then.
