I’m writing up a storm this week. On Friday I bettered my Lock of the Week picks to 4-2. On Sunday, I decided to check out the MVP and Cy Young. Yesterday, I wrote what turned into a long Season One Retrospective of Lost over in Primetime Pulse. If my fingers hold up, tomorrow is looking to be Season 2 retrospective of Lost if a running diary of the Yankees/Tigers game doesn’t conquer it.
One thing I’ve learned about making baseball predictions this year is that I suck at predictions. Exactly two of my predictions from the beginning of the season came through (the Dodgers and the Cardinals) and zero of the other picks came through. Setting all that aside, here are my guaranteed lock picks for the playoffs.
American League
For the record, I picked exactly one team in the American League correctly in the playoffs, the A’s, but I had them at the wildcard. Keep that in mind as I make these predictions.
DS1: New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: There were high winds in New York City on Sunday afternoon. The weather man said something about a cold front coming in from Canada, but it was actually the entire Yankee fan base releasing their held breaths at once when the Tigers completed their monumental choke, dropping a 12-game lead to the Minnesota Twins on the last day. This creates a cake match for the Yankees in the first round instead of what probably would have been another first round exit for the Bombers, Murdere’s Row or not. The Kenny Rogers October Suck Switch has already been flipped. The Gambler made an 11th and 12th inning appearance against the Royals on Sunday with the task of preventing a sweep in extra innings. Kenny responded by giving up the go-ahead run and walking in an insurance run. The city wind was probably also aided by the collective guffaws of the Met fan base.
I’ve been saying since the All-star break that Tiger fans should be very careful about putting their eggs in the Kenny Rogers basket come October and, right on schedule, October Kenny made his debut. The Tige’s “ace” is starting Game 3, not because Nate Robertson is the better pitcher, but because Kenny Rogers won’t make a single pitch on the mound in Yankee Stadium. This is the one case where you really don’t want your ace to make a bullpen save in Game 5.
All this being said, I do think this series goes five. I’m going to give Verlander the benefit of the doubt in game 2 and think he can get his win (though his record against the Yankees this season says otherwise). Give them Game 4 because Jaret Wright or Corey Lidle is far less effective than Jeremy Bonderman and the crowd at Tiger Stadium will be insane. Wang/Robertson, Game 5, Yankee Stadium, with Moose lurking in long relief? My money goes on the Yankees.
DS2: Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics: People occasionally say that momentum heading into the playoffs is over-rated, since there’s a day break between games. The Wildcard’s recent success in getting to and winning the World Series would seem to dispute this. It probably doesn’t help the A’s cause that the Twins have the whole “clinching the division on the last day” thing to build on.
I can really see this series go either way. People are ready to hand it to the Twins on a platter simply because of Johan Santana, but his post-season numbers say otherwise. He has 4 October starts (All against the Yankees) and has been hit-or-miss in them. Meanwhile, he’s facing Barry Zito who’s pitching for zeros in his bank account.
In the end, I have to give this series to the team with three legitimate MVP candidates (and no, John from SoCal, Frank Thomas is NOT an MVP candidate, see the DH Rule) and the Cy Young winner, although I don’t do it with confidence. The A’s, amazingly, have the edge in experience”¦ and you can’t write that off as nothing. Give it to the Twins in 4.
National League
DS1: New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers: I don’t know when the last time two 290+ game winners matched up in a playoff game, but I’m sure we’ll find out soon. Enjoy it, kids, it’s probably the last time we’ll ever see it. Speaking of which, make sure you set your VCRs next season for when Glavine hits 300 wins, you probably won’t see it again for a long time”¦ if ever. The way starters work now, coming out after six innings, it’s possible Glavine is the last 300 game winner we’ll ever see. I digress, this match-up has the stones to be the best of all Division Series, and Shea Stadium will likely be rife with 80-year-old men wearing throwback Dodger caps”¦ and by throwback I mean a Brooklyn Dodger cap they bought to celebrate the end of World War 2 (yes, they’re around and there are more than you’d think).
The match-up here is interesting. For game 1 (and 5) you have Orlando Hernandez, possibly the most under-rated post-season pitcher in baseball (19G, 9-3, 2.55) vs Derek Lowe, who was lights out in 2004 for the Red Sox, winning all 3 clinching games (he was then promptly shown the door. Go Theo!). Game 2, in your first holyhell surreal moment of the 2006 postseason, will see two former Braves’ aces battle it out in Shea for what should be a pitching duel for the ages (though, if recent performance is any indication, one Glavine should get the better of). Game 3 and 4 is going to see some of the hairier Mets’ pitching starting in the desert.
All this being said, the edge in experience goes to the Dodgers. Jeff Kent, Nomar, D-Lowe, Penny, Maddux, Rafael Furcal, and JD Drew all have post-season experience. But, the Mets have blown away the Dodgers this summer. The Mets have bombed Dodger pitching in the regular season and the Mets have a better bullpen. As a Met fan, I can’t pick against them. Go Mets in five.
NLDS: Padres/Cardinals. The Cardinals have completely fallen apart. Their closer is broken, their starters are awful, and no one but Pujols on the team can really hit. They backed into the playoffs after doing everything they could to give the Astros the division (who, themselves, didn’t want it and gave it back). When you talk about a lack of momentum, this is what you’re looking at. The Padres, on the other hand, have been fighting for their lives with LA and Philly for the last two weeks. The Padres are, top to bottom, a solid team with the momentum.
When you stack the two teams together, the Cardinals have 1 starter, 1 hitter, a broken bullpen (including Braden Looper), and a bunch of guys who are one swing away from losing an arm. The Padres have the edge in pitching a grouping of good hitters who will have what it takes to get through the Cardinal pitching.
I’m picking the Padres to win this in a sweep, which should terrify the Met fans reading. Nothing in the world gives me more nightsweats than the idea of Mike Piazza digging in against Billy Wagner, Game 7, Shea Stadium, top of the ninth. Any Met fan who read that sentence just got a douche-chill. The only thing about that sentence that makes me feel any better about it is this one: Any of the Met lineup digging in against Trevor Hoffman in the bottom of a one-run game. Piazza can’t walk off in Game 7, and that makes me happy.
I know I’m posting at least one more column this week, I’m just not quite sure what it will be about.
