NFL Knockout Pool Locks Of The Week: Week 5

OK, so we all knew it couldn’t last. I split 2-2 last week, only one of the three Locks came in and I won my upset. I will give myself credit for calling the over in the Jets/Colts game, too (I still don’t know what the over was, but I’m sure 59 covered it since no one gave the Jets credit for 30 points). If the Jets did anything last week, they proved that, if you can keep up with the Colts offense, you can beat them. I don’t buy the Colts defense as this unstoppable force like some people give them credit for. In the NFL, it’s virtually impossible to have a powerhouse offense and defense at the same time. They left Peyton too much time and he made them pay for it, simple as that.

Secondly, had the Jets managed to get a score out of that menagerie of laterals at the end of the game, the Colts season might have been finished. That kind of thing can take weeks to recover from.

So, my record so far this season with my (fake) bookie is 6-3.

Locks of the Week

SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) over Oakland: Two things really come into play here. First, Oakland should never be getting less than a touchdown on the road, ever. Second, San Francisco got beat 41-0 in Kansas City last week. This would normally fall into one of those “cagey spreads that I avoid like the plague” categories, but I can’t pass it up. Aaron Brooks is already performing as expected and Randy Moss has likely punched out for the season already. Never mind the fact that the Niners will probably be playing with a little extra after the embarrassment last week, and this is an easy 7 point game. To give you a sense of how bad this game is going to be, it’s a 40 point over/under, and I could consider taking the under. I won’t call that a lock, though

NEW YORK GIANTS (-4) over Washington: The Giants are coming off a dismal performance against Seattle two weeks ago. They’ve had nothing but time in the last two weeks to think about how bad they are. If the Giants lose this game, they go on the road to Atlanta in Dallas in the next two weeks and face the very real possibility of starting the season 1-5. As much as you can have a “must win” game in October, this is one. With two weeks, the defense has hopefully addressed their issues. If they lose here, their season is finished.

St Louis (-3) over GREEN BAY: This is another one of those “it’s Favre in Lambeau” spreads. Take advantage of them for as long as they exist. The Rams don’t have the ridiculous offensive team of years ago, but Green Bay has nothing at all. The fact that Green Bay is now GETTING points at home says everything it needs to. The Rams win this outright, and probably by enough.

Upset of the Week

New York Jets (+7) over JACKSONVILLE: This is a defining week for the Jets. They took Indy to the wall last week and almost beat them. If they turn around and win this week, they’re going to make believers out of some people. I think they know this. The other reason they’ve played the two toughest teams in the AFC in the last few weeks and kept both of them within seven. Jacksonville is good, but you can’t tell me the Jets can keep the Patriots and the Colts within 3, but Jacksonville blows them out. At worst, this is a push, at best, it’s a win.