Welcome to the first part of IP’s 6-part NBA season primer. What we’re going to do here at the 4PP is get you ready for the 2006-07 NBA season. First, we’re gonna do positional breakdowns for all 5 NBA spots….cus we’re sexy. And then, just to give you some more flavor, we’re going to do a team breakdown and predictions article.
Hopefully, the 6 articles will get you excited about the season and form some groundwork for later articles that will look at who’ll let you down this season, who’ll surprise you this season, and who will take home the post-season awards and hardware.
First up I’m going to look at the point guard position:
Ya know depending when you grew up you might have a very different view of what a point guard should be and how a point guard should be playing.
I grew up in the era of showtime and the run-and-gun 80’s….where even the best defensive teams still scored over 100 point a game. I tend to think of that era as a sort of golden-age for the position: Magic, Isiah, Stockton, Kevin Johnson, and guys like that. These were players who were fortunate enough to land in an era of free-flowing offense and thus were primarily concerned with making plays for others and passing the ball (with the POSSIBLE exception of Isiah who was clearly a scorer).
Because of that time I’ve always had a bias towards the pass-first point guard who looked more to set his team up, than to finish it himself. I always assumed this passing culture was more a product of the kinds of players around in that era, as opposed to their passing being a function of the style of offenses that were run during that time. In a way it’s a question of: Did they play like that because of their teams’ offensive philosophy, or did their team change the philosophy based on who was at the PG position.
It’s my current view that the value of a PG shouldn’t be judged by how I view the game, but by how each PG (or team) has adapted to the current era they’re in.
Long story short: I think during the past 15 years there has been a shift to a more half-court game. That shift has brought about changes in how a PG plays the game. Shot-minded PG’s have seen their value increase during this time while the run-and-gunners having seen their value decrease in a league that has gotten better at controlling that kind of player. The problem is that my generation of fan, and certainly my generation of reporter, has not given those type of players the respect they deserve because of a bias in their thinking about how the game is SUPPOSED to be played.
Now, clearly there has been in the past 2 years a slow crawl back in the other direction. You can give the credit to the Suns or you can give credit to Jason Kidd…doesn’t matter to me. However, I still believe that for the next few years we will still be in the era of the shoot-first PG being the norm and the Steve Nash-types will be the wonderfully fun exceptions.
My rankings, as you will note, will probably look a bit different than many others you will see in the media because unlike them I don’t try to rank based on MY view of what a PG should be, I rank it based on how the game is being played right NOW, and who is effective within that environment.
1) Gilbert Arenas-
Poster boy for the kind of player that drives me and my “Showtime” sensibilities nuts. Turnover rate is a bit too high, shoots way too much for my blood, and seems to view the basket with more clarity than he does the court.
However, this guy is a blur, and a nightmare, and shadow on the court that you simply can’t stay in front of. His value drops the more the leagues moves to free-flowing offense…but until then he’ll be around stomping people in the halfcourt and blowing by people with ease.
2) Chris Paul-
He reminds me in some ways of a Kevin Johnson. If you need the passing he can do it, if you need the scoring he can do it, he can pretty much do whatever you want. His rookie year was one of the best in history when you account for the pace of that team and his ability to play mistake-free at such a young age.
His defense is a bit behind some of the better pg’s at his position, but not so far behind that I can put him ahead of guys like…..
3) Chauncey Billups-
Has this guy been fantastic or what? I can’t count how many people left him for dead after the Celtics nightmare and the misstep in Denver.
What kills me about his becoming such a good player is: Does this mean Rick Pitino was right to draft this guy in the first place…or what he even more of an idiot because he couldn’t figure out how to use such a versatile player? It’s a toss up to me.
I put him over some of the higher end scorers because he plays defense. I’m sure he was helped by the bigs behind him, but when you watch Billups play you can also tell that he understands the THINKING behind pushing players to certain parts of the court; he understands how to defend without fouling on every play.
He’s done a great job making himself into a bona fide star in this league.
3) Allen Iverson-
Raise your hand if you predicted that he’d have broken down in a heap of skin and bones by now. I sure did. But A.I. has done a fantastic job of keeping himself in one piece and wreaking total and utter havoc on the defensive gameplans of other teams. It’s to the point now where I don’t think people even try to devise things for him. He get’s what he wants and you just hope he forgets about his teammates and shoots the team out of the game.
Where the slip has come is on the defensive end. Simply put he can’t defend my grandmother at this point. What he does instead now is gamble at every opportunity and hope that a wider TO margin helps his team in ways that his defense can’t.
4) Steve Nash-
He’s my kind of PG, but he simply grew up in the wrong era. Most great teams can slow down a running game when they really care to (read: playoffs), and Nash simply doesn’t play enough defense to move him higher up on the list.
I give him great amounts of credit for getting in good shape upon coming to the Suns and his body is much better equipped to take the beating than it ever was on the Mavs.
In my view he’s wildly overrated by many in the mainstream media, but that’s because they’re lazy and they like guys that exciting over guys that are effective. Don’t get me wrong, Nash is VERY effective, but his exact effectiveness has been overplayed.
All that said, as more teams move to a running style, his value (and the value of those like him) will continue to rise. Once teams can figure out how to run in the playoffs against good teams, then the value of guys like Nash will increase exponentially.
5) Tony Parker-
To me Tony Parker is Chris Paul stuck in more plodding system. That isn’t to say Parker does exactly what Paul does in as much as Parker can do whatever you want on the offensive end…just like Paul.
He’s amazingly effective on the Spurs and in their halfcourt style, but you can also seem him being simply amazing on a team that needed him to score more or a team that run as much as the Suns.
Like Arenas he’s actually been timed to be faster than lightening and from day 1 you never felt like an NBA “moment” was beyond him. He rises to moments very well and at a very young age already has 2 NBA rings.
The interesting part of Parker is that even unlike Paul you can see where Parker has more room for growth. Yes most young PG’s like Paul will improve with experience, but Parker looks like he has whole other abilities that he hasn’t even touched yet. I certainly see him rising up these rankings in the years to come.
6) Jason Kidd-
The list gets really bunched in after Parker. The players are different, but the projected value starts to get mighty similar.
There isn’t much I can say about Kidd that you don’t already know. He was about as close to Magic Johnson as the 90’s ever got and he’s made almost every team he’s been on much better than it ever would have been with anyone else. He has 2 NBA Finals’ appearances under his belt and when totally healthy there are few players around that OTHER players would rather play with.
What I’ve always appreciated about Kidd has been his ability to play defense when his team HAD to have it, and his desire to improve his jumpshot. Now, he never did get a great jumper, but what he did do was really valuable. He made it RESPECTABLE enough that you at least had to guard it. That’s what opens up the court for other players and that’s why his teams got better as he got older.
Kidd, however, is clearly in his decline phase and I foresee him starting his drop coming up soon. Health will be an issue, but age is going to take some of his fundamental advantages away from him.
All that said he’s an almost certain HOF’er and for those that didn’t grow up in the 80’s (or before) he was THE glimpse of what it was like to have that kind of vision and that kind of passing ability.
7) Devin Harris-
Has the tools, has the technology, he also has something pretty important: Avery Johnson. Harris might not be expected on many of these lists but I’m predicting a mini-breakout this season.
He has a ton of speed and while he’s streaky with his shot he still managed a respectable FG% during the 2nd half of the season and into the playoffs last year. The key is going to be how he can take the experience he’s going to get this year as a starter and use it to improve the parts of his game that are weakest.
Like most of the new breed of PG the guy is impossible to stop from getting into the lane and the damage he can do at this point is drawing fouls. I expect, however, that by starting this season he’s going to gain a world of experience that will translate into better shot selection and even better feel for the passing game. He’s a guy, along with Paul and Parker, who are headed for the title of being the very best in the league.
8) Baron Davis-
Bad back, bad knee, bad this, bad that. Baron Davis is the enigma that few coaches have really ever solved. He’s in the niche that drives coaches crazy because he CAN pass very well…..he just doesn’t seem to want to pass enough.
As I said before, in this era that isn’t the worst thing in the world but it does tend to rub teammates the wrong way and coaches have never called him out as being the best “team” guy.
But here’s the thing: what Micki was to Rocky Balboa, Don Nelson is for NBA PG’s. If you don’t believe me then you can look it up. Take any PG and look at their stats (and game) before Nelson and compare it to after Nelson and it’s utterly amazing.
So I’m putting Davis at 8, with a bullet, based on the fact that Don Nelson is NBA equivalent of a fluff girl: He raises these guys’ game!
9) Stephon Marbury-
He’s basically Baron Davis without the health issues. Another coaches nightmare because you can’t tell him NOT to score, but he can’t find a way to pass more than he does. The best thing I can say about Marbury over Davis is that Marbury has a cheap shoe that maybe kids won’t get killed over…..so he’s got THAT going for him.
But seriously, last year for Marbury was like the final year in Russian gulag. Larry Brown was a living breathing warlock who seemed to almost take joy in destroying Marbury. One has to imagine that the change to Isiah Thomas will do wonders for his confidence. Also because Marbury is Thomas’ “guy” we have to imagine he will get plenty of opportunity to shine in the Big Apple.
10) Jameer Nelson-
A heck of a lot of teams passed on this kid and a heck of a lot of GM’s don’t sleep easy knowing how easily they could have had him. Last year he was essentially good enough that the Magic felt they could deal Steve Francis for almost nothing, which tells you quite a bit.
Nelson has that “born leader” thing going on and he reminds me of Mike Bibby in a lot of ways. Less flashy coming out of college, but they both turned into similar pros. He isn’t super quick, super tall, or super anything. However, he has that knack for doing what he supposed to do exactly when he’s supposed to do it. I have to imagine he’s a pleasure to coach.
It’s going to be interesting to see how he responds to the added responsibility this of being a co-leader with Dwight Howard. Frankly, not much has been expected of him until this point so it bears watching how he performs when, for the first time, he’s expected to lead a team to playoffs.
Thanks for joining me this time and come back when I look at the top 10 SG’s going into the 2006-07 season.
