The 4-Point Play: Positional Rankings- Shooting Guard

In part 2 of my 2006-07 NBA season primer, I take a look at the top 10 SG’s in the NBA. Now, this isn’t necessarily who has BEEN the top SG’s, but instead I put on my kick-ass Kreskin cap and try to read into….the FUTURE.

Shooting guard has become a real repository of diverse players. Shooters, slashers, wing defenders, and wanna-be-PG’s fill the NBA SG ranks.

My list if filled mainly with the top scorers simply because the days of the “non-scoring-defender-types” are coming to an end. The rules make it such that guys can pretty much get into the lane at will, and so the league has put a premium on skill players at every position. It’s very hard to win in the NBA playing what amounts to 4 vs 5 on the offensive end.

As you might imagine this list is really 2 guys”¦.and then everybody else. Shaq co-pilot #1 vs Shaq co-pilot #2 (I don’t count Penny Hardaway because he’s meaningless). Is this the year D-Wade finally ascends to the top of the SG list, or will Kobe maintain his grip?

1) Mamba-

One of the most interesting storylines last season was the almost total metamorphisis of Kobe Bryant from Mr. 81 points to Mr. Passy McPasserson is the NBA playoffs. What I think had to stun so many who follow the game was that not only was Kobe making Phil happier as McPasserson, but that it was also making the Lakers a much more dangerous team. It was as if suddenly Bryant worked in pro wrestling and did a face change because someone high up decided his “character” needed a reset”¦.

“¦.And don’t forget: the Lakers came within an eyelash of beating the heavily favored Suns in that best of 7 series.

The question becomes: What does Kobe do for an encore? Will he again take command of the ball during the regular season? Will he then flip the switch in the playoffs and attempt to re-create the 05-06 season? Or, will his continued growth pattern include a permanent change to his style of play?

I think the level of play around Kobe will continue to moderately improve, which means he will make moderate moves towards being the TOTAL playmaker that he showed late last year. He’ll never pass more than he shoots, but I do think he takes the next step; a step that puts him just ahead of”¦..

2) Dwayne Wade-

I’m going to put the finals performance on the side here. If we’re all being honest we must admit that the refs essentially handed the Heat the title and Wade the MVP. Credit him, yes, for driving and being willing to take the pounding. However, at some point the refs need to swallow the whistle and not reward wildly bullrushing towards the basket.

Ok, so that’s on the side. What we have is a player who, better than anyone else in the league, understands his game (and limitations) and has PERFECTED a style that fits him to a tee. He doesn’t rely on the low % play”¦ever; he will not go into deep funks for long because he understands the anatomy of breaking scoring slumps.

What now needs to reach that next level (let’s call it the Kobe level), is another title and a wider range of defensive and passing skills. Can Wade do what Kobe couldn’t? That is can he take SHAQ to multiple rings, as opposed to having Shaq take HIM (as Kobe did the first 2 times around)?

3) Vince Carter-

I know”¦..a bit of surprise huh? Looking at the numbers I was pretty surprised too. What puts Vince #3 was not only his fantastic rebirth as an offensive juggernaut, but his improved defensive ability. His defensive +/- was actually slightly higher than the other guys was going to put here: Hamilton, Allen, ect.

Now, it’s not a perfect stat, however it’s a decent stat that does tell us SOMETHING about how good Vince was (in conjunction with his team) vs. his replacement. The fact is that he’s become pretty passable, which is fine if you’re loaded on the offensive end like he is.

His value next year will rise if he can dramatically cut his turnover rate. Yes he does handle the ball as much, or more, than other players at his position. However, he’s still too careless with the ball and all those lost possessions end up hurting his overall effectiveness.

I guess this guy really DID hate Canada!

4) Richard Hamilton-

Fantastic shooter and the guy plays defense. It doesn’t matter if it’s Larry (the sack) Brown or Flip Saunders; he has improved this part of the game even if you take into account that he had/has solid defenders behind him. Maybe this year is the test.

The most impressive thing about last season for Hamilton was the combination of better defense, a much higher FG%, and a solid decrease in turnovers. Essentially when he got the ball he was much better, and he didn’t let go of the ball quite as much. It’s really tough to as much more of the guy.

It seems as though another year in Flips offense should produce even better numbers for Hamilton. Maybe not the totals (PPG, APG ,ect), but I think his shot selection might improve over what was already a fantastic display last season. I also think that yet another year with 4 of the 5 teammates he’s been with for awhile now, will help. While I can’t imagine him hitting the 3ball much better than last year (46%!!), I might not stay just as high or go up very slightly. Either way it only adds to how effective he is. What’s so amazing about 46% from 3 is that it would take a player going 69% from 2-point land to match his effectiveness. And who on earth has ever done that?

5) Paul Pierce-

Really impressed with most of his numbers, but his on-court/off-court numbers weren’t really all that impressive. Meaning that the team felt little impact whether he was on the court or not on the court. As much as the team improved on offense with him out there, they declined on defense as well. Clearly circumstance played into it and he played a heck of a lot of minutes so that says a lot about what we’re comparing it too, however the fact still remained that for whatever reason the team was clearly worse on defense with him here.

But let’s go over the good since we know he’s a fantastic player. For a SG his rebounding and passing is quite good. He’s not quite as versatile as some of the really top notch players in the league, but he ain’t far behind either. In the past 4 years he’s never averaged less 6.5 rebounds or 4.2 assists per game. That tells me that he’s relied on about as much as any player in the league and for him to remain as consistent as he is”¦.it’s a credit to his work ethic.

What’s going to make him special is going to be his ability to continue to draw copious amounts of fouls per game. He has a very unique style of play that is conducive to drawing fouls. He spins a lot, he isn’t particularly quick, and that leaves him open to tons of contact. The upshot is that he hits his FT’s decently well and he gets to the line quite a bit. I expect that to continue as the rule changes favor offensive players more than ever before.

6) Jason Richardson-

In terms of actual production I actually think this guy is going to rate 2nd or 3rd in the league in raw stats. Playing SF/SG for Don Nelson tends to do that for fantastic offensive players like him.

My favorite part about him is that he’s sort of the John Wayne of the band of sissies known as the “Warriors”. He played last year in all sorts of pain and never complained about it or took many days off”¦unlike some of his teammates. He’s a real leader on the team and word has it that he dropped half of the cost (some 100K) to put an add up in a local newspaper thanking the fans for sticking with the team through the tough times and apologizing for their 05-06 campaign. We’re not talking about a prima donna here and that’s nice to see in a league of cry babies.

I’m putting Pierce over Richardson by a schooch but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Richardson start to hit his prime right about now. That’s something that would move him inline to be a top player in the league regardless of position.

7) Manu Ginobili-

Sometimes one gets the feeling that Manu is a human cannonball with high-tops. His style of play has, no doubt, taken a toll on his body and almost all of last yea’s woes came from the simple fact that you can’t run around being a f*cking lunatic and expect to get away with it.

That said, he’s just fantastic at almost everything. Not the loudest leader on the court but his play does more talking than he’d ever need to do with his voice-box. He’s a pest on defense who’s relentless nature wears people down really quickly. Ginobili has a flair for the dramatic that rivals any of the guards above him and probably surpasses it on most nights simply because of the sheer fact that he won’t LET himself play lazy.

Ginobili is a very solid passer and yet on the flipside does a real nice job of anticipating and jumping the passing lanes of the opposition. His offensive game is really unique and seems sometimes to be part hapkido and part flying Wallendas.

He’s as healthy as he’s ever been so I expect a breakout season for him and serious consideration for comeback player of the year. (Depending on your definition of the award)

8) Michael Redd-

He went from underrated, to overrated, to obscenely rich, to deserving most every penny he’s earned. It’s been an interesting ride for Mike Redd. You might remember that Redd was drafted very late out of Ohio St. and was not really seen as a star caliber player”¦.not even by his own team. He started playing behind Ray Allen, but you could see his game was improving seemingly every game.

When Allen was freed from the zoo that Milwaukee had become, Redd took over and one could argue the team actually improved. Because, however, nobody knew anything about him he was seen as this amazingly undervalued player. Of course that cycle runs through quick and suddenly EVERYONE noticed he was undervalued”¦.which made him overvalued.

When it was his turn to become a free agent, it was no-brainer that he would go back home to play with Lebron James. Except it was a “brainer”, I guess, for Redd as he spurned the Cavs and decided to toss his lot in with the Bucks”¦..bad move Mike.

Anyhow, he had a fantastic season last year and topped it off by making the Detroit Pistons look like the Washington Generals’ lube squad. He torched them for around 26 ppg in a series that turned out to be much closer than it should have been. Redd is still young enough that an improvement isn’t out of the question.

9) Ray Allen-

Speaking of Ray Allen!! It’s too bad the Sonics bought their own hype after 04 and didn’t realize that their winning ways were essentially very fluky and were not destined to last. Had they realized they had overachieved they probably wouldn’t have been as complacent as they were in improving the squad. (Although to be fair I’m sure their financial woes and possible sale had SOMETHING to do with that).

Either way, they didn’t surround Allen enough very much and the team totally went into the crapper. Allen, however, was like a beacon of light shooting out of the mangled gore that was the Sonics last year. He reversed a troubling trend by improving his FG% and hit the 3-ball at a fantastic clip. Add that to the array of skills Allan has always had (passing, heady leadership, taking care of the ball) and you had a guy that tried his best to save what looks to be a confused franchise. Let’s hope Dean Oliver has something special up his sleeve.

10) Joe Johnson-

Oh those Atlanta Hawks”¦those silly Hawks. Look, for the last time: Yes it was stupid to pay Joe Johnson all kinds of booku money to play PG when you can get players like him for way cheaper; you also could have drafted Chris Paul and solved THAT little problem for pennies on the dollar.

However, Joe DID outperform expectation and had one hell of year. This season he moves back to his more natural SG position and I expect him to really take off. He came out of Arkansas not really known as a top notch scorer. I think it was expected he’d be that versatile player that does a bit of everything and gets the job done. Well, he’s a little bit of that guy, but make no mistake he can flat out score (kill me if I start to sound more like Dickie V. as the season goes on).

For Johnson to rise up this list he’s going to have to build on his fantastic prior season and he’s going to have to defend better than he has so far in his career. Obviously the defense is simply up to him, on offense it’s going to be interesting to see if he can improve his ways while still allowing Josh Smith and Marvin Williams the room to break out in their right. Some slight improvements to his efficiency stats (fg%, efg%, 3pf %) would offset what will probably be a dip in scoring. However, one never knows, maybe his move to SG gives him MORE of a green light to shoot and maybe the Hawks run a slightly higher pace than last year. There are several questions swirling around the team, not the least of which is how they will mesh all of their young and improving players.

Then again”¦.it’s the Hawks”¦questions always abound.

Thank you again for joining IP as we preview the upcoming season. I’ll be back soon with a preview of the top 10 SF’s heading into the 2006-07 season.