Thanks to everyone who took the time to drop me a line on part one, like Mike S:
I’m curious as to why you’re so down on Barry Zito. He’s never missed a start, he’s got a terrific postseason ERA and he’s got a Cy Young Award on his resume. Plus, you’re insane if you don’t think he’ll get Oswalt money at the very least.
First off, you’re probably right on the money thing. M’man Daniels made a similar point in his latest “East Coast Bias” column. As for Zito”¦I’ve seen pretty much every one of his starts over the last three or four seasons thanks to the Extra Innings cable package. He works deep counts on every hitter and is often at 100 pitches by the sixth inning. Plus, as seen in the ALCS, Zito can be cruising along then gives up a few hits and it all falls apart. He’ll be a fine signing for the right money, but there’s no way he’s going to get “right money”.
Longtime Friend of the Bootleg, Miguel S. checks in:
Cool feature. Although, I’ll bet you cash money that (Alfonso) Soriano ends up in Houston for a long time. They need some pop, they’ve got the cash with Bagwell, Clemens and possibly Pettitte coming off the books.
You might have a point. Full disclosure time”¦I didn’t realize that Jermaine Dye had a team option for 2007, so he was originally part of this feature (today’s part, if I’m not mistaken). I had him signing with the Astros. With that out the window (Dye’s option was picked up by the White Sox yesterday), it’s possible that the Astros pony up the cash for Alf.
Finally, apparently”¦I don’t know Bonds:
Bonds retires? Please. Once your A’s lose Thomas, you can bet that Beane will be on the phone giving Bonds the same deal he gave Big Hurt last year. –Rick C.
Bonds will be back in San Francisco so just accept it. He’ll break Aaron’s home run record, too. I feel dirty just typing that. –Matthew C.
There’s no way Barry retires, as someone will take a shot on a guy who was still treated like he was the Barry Bonds from 2001. He was intentionally walked 39 times last year. Detroit, Anaheim or SF”¦he’ll end up in one of those places. –Ryan B.
Hey, if I’m wrong, I owe Steve Phillips a Coke. Meanwhile, on with Part 2″¦
Greg Maddux – RHP: Quite possibly the easiest call of them all. Maddux will either re-sign with L.A. or retire and as long as hitters continue to flail at his 79 mph “stuff”, then he’ll have a job. He’s another Boras client, so a one year deal seems unlikely. Everyone just hold on to those 1987 Donruss “Rated Rookies” a little while longer and then get ready to reap the windfall whenever he retires. Oh, I can feel that 55 cents in my pocket, right now! (Prediction: Re-signs with Los Angeles Dodgers, 2 years/$18M)
Mark Mulder – LHP: Red flags aplenty, here. His numbers (K rate, especially) have been in free fall since his days in Oakland, but he insisted that he was completely healthy. This past season, with an ERA over 7.00, Mulder finally conceded that he’d been pitching hurt for portions of the past three years. How’s that Danny Haren trade working out for the A’s, again? Take that you pretty little lefty. (Prediction: Re-signs with St. Louis Cardinals, 1 year/$4M)
Mike Mussina – RHP: From the “Alex Rodriguez, it’s all one player’s fault” file, the Yanks haven’t won a World Series since signing Mussina as a free agent after the 2000 season. No word yet on if Moose is a “true Yankee” or if Jorge Posada freezes him out during mound conversations. Personally, I think the only way Mussina comes back is if he takes a substantial pay cut or the Yanks miss out on the Daisuke Matsuzaka sweepstakes. Of course, if I’m calling it that way, then the Yanks will find a way to land both, no? (Prediction: Re-signs with New York Yankees, 2 years/$22M)
Dmitri Young – 1B: Wait, which one is he again”¦Shad or JTG? 32 year old players in the decline phase of their careers really shouldn’t beat their girlfriends and undermine their manager’s authority. It’s one or the other, Dmitri. Maybe it’s not too late to learn from the Phillies’ Brett Myers. Remember, he’s the guy who beat his wife and then pitched the next day. Young will most likely be (pause) blackballed out of the league, but if there’s any organization that could screw this up”¦ (Prediction: Signs with Baltimore Orioles, Minor League Contract)
Moises Alou – LF: In 1,840 games and 6,660 at-bats, Alou has never played a game while wearing an American League uniform. He’ll turn 40 next year and it’s hard to imagine anyone getting a full season out of the oft-injured outfielder. He’d be the perfect fit for a team that’s right on the cusp of success and has enough offense to not rely entirely on Alou. Let him split time between DH and the OF, put him at fifth or sixth in your batting order and watch the wins roll in. (Prediction: Signs with Los Angeles Angels, 1 year/$5.5M)
Alex Gonzalez – SS: Well, that worked out well, didn’t it, Boston? $2.6 million for the Venezuelan Pat Meares? Good call. Gonzalez is just one of those players that an American League team just can’t give the chance for 400+ plate appearances. He’ll take his glove back to the NL, but would only really be a fit on a loaded offense that could afford to bury him in the #8 hole. Let’s see, the Phillies have Rollins, the Braves have Edgar”¦uh oh, Alex. It’s not looking good. (Prediction: Signs with Chicago Cubs, 1 year/$1.5M)
Gary Matthews, Jr. – SP: In 2006, he set career highs in pretty much every offensive category. Let’s look at how far out of line those numbers were with his career stats. In ’06, he hit .313/.371/.495, while his career stats are .263/.336/.419″¦and those career stats are boosted by his ’06 numbers. Matthews is 31 and two of his top three comps are washed-up-by-30 OFs Mike Davis and Terrence Long. Oh, and his OPS was about 80 points higher in the Bandbox at Arlington than on the road. D’ya think the Cards might want him if they don’t bring Edmonds back? On second thought, there’s no way the O’s play Corey Patterson for 500 more plate appearances. (Prediction: Signs with Baltimore Orioles, 3 year/$22M)
Darin Erstad – 1B/CF: Unquestionably one of the most overrated players in recent memory, Erstad gets all sorts of credit for being “gritty” and “intense”, which is just sports shorthand for “white guy who runs hard and dives for everything”. In the last six years, his OBP has been lower than .332 five times, while he’s only once slugged .400 in that same span. He’s a fan favorite, though, and if Tim Salmon was allowed to stay on the team until he was 80, Erstad should get the same opportunity. (Prediction: Re-signs with Los Angeles Angels, 1 year/$1M)
Cliff Floyd – LF: Call me crazy, but I had no problem with Cream of Wheat coverboy, Willie Randolph sending Floyd up to pinch-hit in the bottom of the 9th of the NLCS. The first two hitters got on ahead of him and, at that point, you need runs, not outs. Bunting there would be self-defeating. Not sure that’s any consolation to Mets fans. Floyd played a lot longer than most of us thought he would as he was never really able to shake that “injury-prone” label that’s dogged him since his Montreal days. I think he comes full circle (kind of) this offseason. (Prediction: Signs with Washington Nationals, 1 year/$5M)
Nomar Garciaparra – 1B: Hmm”¦all of the places that need him probably can’t afford him. He’s not likely to get the multi-year deal that he desperately wants and, for some reason, I can’t see him leaving the West Coast. The Dodgers have James Loney waiting in the wings, while the Angels have a logjam of talent fighting for first base time. OK, I’m not saying that this makes sense, but”¦(Prediction: Signs with Los Angeles Angels, 1 year/$7M)
