The power forward position is pretty well stocked with great players. Injury concerns have hurt the stock of guys like Amare Stoudemire, and Pau Gasol, are either hurt or coming off injury. For the most part my rankings will work under the assumption that unless it’s known a player is gone all year they will get the ranking based on how they will play when they are fully healthy.
The position as a whole is in a real bullish period historically. Most of the top older PF’s are still in their prime (Duncan, KG, ect), and there is a real influx of young players that have either shown they are ready to ascend to stat-status, or look to be right on the cusp of breaking out. Because of that this is the position that I’m least sure about the rankings holding until the end of the season. I have little doubt that some kids will be fast risers and I think it’s possible that some of the older players could start a long decline phase.
For the past several years there has been a big 4 when it comes to PF’s: Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki, and Elton Brand. I don’t see much of a change this season from that formula; the only question really is in what order they actually are.
The top two stories at this position are Duncan and Stoudemire. Duncan because he came off his worst season, is 30 years old, and is coming off a year where he dealt with every fantasy owne’s best friend: plantar fasciitis.
Amare would be a lock to be included with the big 4 if he were healthy; however it’s been a very long and windy road for him since this time last year when he had every fantasy owners’ kiss of death: microfracture knee surgery. Clearly the Suns will take it easy with him and play him 20-25 minutes a night (fantasy alert), but players with a lot less dedication have come back from this surgery so by the end of the year he could be 85-90% of the player he was a few years ago when he torched Duncan and the Spurs in the playoffs.
1) Kevin Garnett-
There are some experts who refuse to put Garnett first on this list. The reasons appear to be two-fold. One, because there is a view gaining steam that KG is really a role player dressed up as a franchise player and that he really isn’t suited to lead a team. Second, is that his teams have historically underachieved and that he hasn’t gotten a championship ring yet. To that I can simply say: poppycock.
Because of his versatility he’s the best defender of all the top candidates, he consistently out rebounds most of the top candidates most year, and he still finds time to become a more efficient player even as he has been in offensive philosophies that stress ball movement.
His problem is that Kevin McHale is a really really inferior GM who has done little to improve the team since getting rid of Stephon Marbury several years ago. Now, Marbury forced his way out so I don’t blame ANYONE on the team for that, however, McHale did a horrific job of replacing the overall talent lost. Remember this was a guy who tried to sign Joe Smith to an illegal contract”¦.let me repeat that: this was a guy who tried to sign an illegal contract with (read: he though enough of) Joe Smith.
In a way blaming Garnett for the problems with the T-Wolves would be like blaming an army doctor for the Vietnam War. Look man, his job is just to administer penicillin to the guys that got V.D. from the cute prostitutes; he can’t control what goes on in the big picture.
Garnet is #1 because he’s the best combination of all the skills a PF needs to dominate”¦.and he’s got better passing skills than the other PF’s do too.
2) Elton Brand-
He’s a very prototypical PF who practically invented consistency. He’s improved his defense over the years and while it doesn’t show up much in the stats he IS a smarter player now then he ever has been before, which isn’t surprising since he’s a grizzled veteran at this point.
By all accounts he’s a great teammate and you won’t find him punching out white guys for sport (as is the case with KG). He seems to be a leader on every team he’s on and there is a hell of a lot to be said for being a reliable as a human as well as a player. There is something to be said about being traded to the Clippers, not whining, REMAINGING with the Clippers when you could have left, and being good enough to launch a sort of renaissance (though that would imply that they had EVER been good) in L.A.
3) Dirk Nowitzki-
Very tough decision between he, Brand, and Tim Duncan. No question that Dirk is the more talented offensive player. He simply has skills that no big man has had”¦.honestly ever. People compare him to Larry Bird, but honestly Bird was a SF, while Dirk is a legit 7-footer. It’s incredible.
Contrary to popular opinion his defense is still something that the team has to overcome, but it HAS improved and he’s essentially in his prime so I would expect a few more years of improved defense as his desire and lateral quickness are now in synch.
If he can improve his defense just a bit, I firmly believe he will rise to the #1 spot in very short order. He is amazingly efficient for a player with his skill-set and as his team becomes filled with more defensive players his clutch offense will become even more valuable.
4) Tim Duncan-
Any other year this guy is #1. He has everything you want in a PF and even if he dropped dead tomorrow he’s a first ballot HOF’er with some of the most impressive credentials in NBA history. The key for him is going to be his battle with injury and age.
30 isn’t old by any means, but Tim Duncan is starting a phase that is generally accepted to be a downside of ones career (unless you are 1/3rd robot like Karl Malone). Duncan is also hurt statistically by the fact that he plays in a slower paced offense and has some fantastic players around him who are starting to make huge names for themselves as well.
My personal view is that Duncan has a solid bounce back year; I fully expect an increase in all relevant stats and even a more consistent showing in the playoffs. His defense will remain as great as ever and his leadership, which has always been good, will move to the next level as he realizes he needs more out of his teammates than ever before.
5) Dwight Howard-
Howard is a kid who seems like he was created by God to play the PF position. Very dense body which helps him power through all kinds of defensive pressure, and yet agile enough to play with quickness that belies his frame. He, Amare Stoudemire, and Chris Bosh appear to be the future of this position in the NBA.
The worry about him in the past is that he isn’t mentally aggressive enough to be a great player. It might be a bias against deeply Christian players because I don’t see why anyone should have those concerns. He certainly does need to develop more skill on the offensive end, but his rebounding and defensive presence is certainly aggressive enough in comparison to anyone in this league. I expect him to be the co-leader, with Jameer Nelson, on the Magic this year and as I said before he part of that small group of guys that are going to dominate this position for years to come.
6) Amare Stoudemire-
What a tragedy if this kid can’t reclaim the player he was 2 years ago when, a case could be made that he was on the very cusp of being the most dominant big man on the planet. How he maneuvers around his knee problems will be the defining issue in regards to his career.
Like Howard he’s a physical specimen that hasn’t been seen since Karl Malone and what made Amare even more amazing is that, unlike Howard, he already had the offensive game to demoralize whoever was unlucky enough to cover him.
This ranking is based on my view that he starts out slow and then rounds into roughly 85-90% the player he was pre-injury. Nobody can say if he will ever be 100%, but certainly even if he only gets to 90% that still puts him in line to be the 2nd best PF in the next 5 years.
7) Chris Bosh-
A real silky player that reminds me of Kevin Garnett. He certainly doesn’t put the “power” in power forward, but he has the kind of game that’s really difficult to stop because he’s good enough to expose any defender no matter which way they try to handle him.
This season will be very interesting for him. He should be the full time PF at this point and will not have to be tossed in a center unless the Raptors’ plans at that position got awry. While it means he will have tougher guards on a nightly basis it should also mean he takes less pounding than he has in years past and that should leave him fresher during the season and late into ball games.
For him to really join the Howards and Amares of the world he’s going to have to show more killer instinct than he has to this point. He’s at an age now where nobody on his team need question his credentials. He can be a dominate force, but right now his mind is in the way of it happening on a nightly basis.
8) Pau Gasol-
Right now he’s in that group with Chris Bosh just below the very best of the best. He’s a very smart player and much tougher than he was advertised when those who had no clue about him were comparing him to Dirk simply because he was a Euro.
The foot injury that will keep him out for a month or so is the factor heading into this season. My personal belief was that Gasol was reaching his peak and probably wouldn’t be much more of a force than he was last year. Now, he’s a hell of a player, however I simply didn’t/don’t see the kind of upside that leads me to believe he has a 25 and 12 season ahead of him.
Hopefully he rounds himself into shape and gets his team into the playoffs. That’s going to be a very tough task as the Grizzlies are in the toughest division on the planet, but they might have enough pieces to squeak in.
9) Zach Randolph-
Randolph has been sidetracked in recent years by a crummy attitude and a knee injury. Reports are that over the summer both “issues” have been addressed. He slimmed down considerably which should put less pressure on the knee, and he also pledges to be a better citizen. While I can personally confirm that he does look to be in better shape, I’ll believe the better attitude when I see it.
Randolph has done a great job of taking a game that isn’t overly explosive and getting a lot out of it because of solid footwork and fundamentals. He’s impossible to stop in the low block and resembles a furry horned quadruped in a china shop.
I can’t imagine the team is willing to put up with his personality much longer so, if he hasn’t changed his juvenile ways, expect the team to attempt to trade him. They didn’t draft LeMarcus Aldridge for nothing.
10) Carlos Boozer-
It has been a very windy trip into Mormonsville for Carlos Boozer. As if screwing over a blind guy wasn’t enough Boozer was a fairly big disappointment once he found his way onto the Utah Jazz. However, it appears as though he’s on the comeback trail. His shot selection slowly improved last year, as did his conditioning and health. It will be very interesting to see how this team molds together now that most of the long-term parts are assembled.
Like Randolph, Boozer has done a very nice job of taking a pretty mediocre athletic body and turning it into an effective rebounding and scoring tool.
Thank you again for joining IP as we preview the upcoming season. I’ll be back soon with a preview of the top 10 C’s heading into the 2006-07 season.
