East Coast Bias: NFC Mid-season Check-up

Welcome to halfway. The point in the NFL season where the playoff picture is already pretty much known, just depending on how the positioning shakes out. It’s one of the unfortunate side effects of a 12-team playoff picture in a league where the good and the bad is painfully obvious early in the season and mid-season adjustments are next to impossible due to the salary cap. Someday, there’s an entire series of articles on why the salary cap is a stupid idea and why fans who support it fail to realize they’re being snowed, but that’s for another day.

This is the vaunted time of the year where I break open my over/unders and see how far off I was. I forget how painfully short the NFL season is until it’s half over.

NFC East

Washington Redskins: Original prediction, under 9 (8-8). A lucky win yesterday put them at 3 wins but 8-8 is probably generous. I knew I should have kept the records out of it. The under call is correct but with games left against the Giants, Falcons, Rams, Eagles, and at Nawlins, I don’t expect any more than six wins out of this team.

New York Giants: Original prediction, over 8.5 (9-7). As a caveat when I called the division for Cowboys, I said that if the Giants got through the brutal first six weeks of their schedule (Colts, at Eagles, at Seahawks, Redskins, at Falcons, at Cowboys) at 3-3, they very well might steal the division from the Cowboys. They got through the stretch 4-2. In the last two weeks, the Giants did something they don’t usually do, which is win games they should win. Mike Hulse said in his predictions this week that the Giants have a bad habit of playing down to their competition. They aren’t doing that this year. With the balance of their schedule still only containing two “should win” games (at Tennessee and at Washington). If the Giants get through this schedule with a bye week in January, you could be looking at the NFC representatives.

Philadelphia Eagles: Original prediction, under 8.5 (7-9). 4-4 through the first eight and a brutal stretch run, involving trips to New York, Indianapolis, and Dallas. I still like this call just as it is.

Dallas Cowboys: Original prediction, over 9.5 (10-6). I crowned Dallas the division winner due to their offensive line, Drew Bledsoe behind that line, and a legitimate downfield threat added to their roster. What I didn’t know (and I should have) is how much of a distraction TO would be, while dropping gimme touchdown passes that costs his team the game. He’s single-handedly ruinging both Dallas’s season and the ability for anyone to enjoy watching a Cowboy’s game. At 4-4 now with a similar schedule to Philly’s, I’m calling them now a 9 win wildcard team. One of the most amusing sub-plots of this season is watching Bill Parcells become increasingly disillusioned with the whole season and just waiting to retire at the end of the year. Under (9-7)

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks: Original prediction, under 10.5 (10-6). Seattle plays Oakland tomorrow, so we’ll call that a win and say they’re 5-3 through half the season. Seattle is having one of the quietest good seasons ever, and I don’t know if that’s a good thing for them come January or a bad thing. What I do know is that the hard part of their schedule is over and the balance of their season involves Tampa, Arizona, San Fran twice, and Green Bay. 10.5 wins was too much for an offense so reliant on one weapon. Sticking with this prediction here.

St Louis Rams: Original prediction, under 7 (6-10). At 4-4, they’re probably going to wind up proving me wrong, but I’m sticking with six wins.

Arizona Cardinals: Original prediction, under 8 (4-12). The loss to Chicago ended their season. I summed it up in one line back in August: Eight wins for the Cardinals? Are they serious? The most disappointing piece of the Cardinals is the fact they almost have the pieces in place to make their team, but their line is so bad, it invalidates everything. This was the easiest bet on the board this season.

San Francisco 49ers: Original prediction, under 5 (3-13). They already have three wins, so it looks like this one is going to shake out wrong unless they drop the rest of the season. Nothing doing here.

NFC North

Detroit Lions: Original prediction, under 6.5 (5-11). Yeah, this pick was correct. Still under”¦ probably less than five

Chicago Bears: Original Prediction, Over 9 (12-4). Everyone called me nuts. Even Bears fans called me nuts. I win, you lose. After getting through the easy part of their schedule, they are looking for to the rest of their joke schedule. Three hard games are left, at New York, at New England, and Minnesota. We’re going to see what this team of made of. By December 3rd, we’ll know how far they’ll be getting in the playoffs. Sticking with this call across the board.

Caveat: Next-week’s game is probably for home-field throughout the playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings: Original prediction, under 8 (6-10). In the original column I said: This is one of teams that could either fly off the handle and win 12 or struggle all season and win 6, hence your over/under of 8. They are solidly doing neither at 4-4. It’s looking like this team might just be a push at 8.

Green Bay Packers: Original prediction, under 6 (5-11). Had the Pack won yesterday, I’d be more concerned by this pick. Except Lions and Niners, they have no soft games left on their schedule. Good call here.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints: Original prediction, over 7 (10-6). I win again. I called them as the NFL’s breakout team of the season. Reasoning now still the same as when I wrote it the first time: After a tumultuous season last year where someone thought it was a good idea to give them a “home game” at Giants’ Stadium, they finished the year with only three wins. The stars are really aligned for the Saints to have a good season this year: they got a huge draft pick who can hopefully be a work-horse for them, two good wide receivers, and a new quarterback who 1) has had five pretty successful seasons with the Chargers and 2) isn’t Aaron Brooks. The Saints are my sleeper pick of the season. They have an average schedule, they’re coming back to New Orleans in game 3 to a likely sold out house. They have the karma and they kind of have the tools to be a surprise this year. The Saints are going to turn in a quality season this year.

Atlanta Falcons: Original prediction, under 8 (7-9). Vick discovered he’s got a running-back and a couple guys to throw some West Coast passes to. They’re going to battle the Saints for the division down the stretch, but they’ll definitely be over 8. Wrong here.

Carolina Panthers: Original prediction, under 10 (7-9). Original paragraph: Every season, the league has one high expectation team that turns in a sub-par season. Even though the Panthers are one of those teams who seem to be a sweetheart favorite in the NFC this season, I’m saying they’re the random disappointment team of the season. While the Dolphins also fit this bill, The Panthers are fitting in this hole nicely, too. Their stretch run involves New York, at Philly, at Washington, at Atlanta, at Nawlins. They will be lucky to finish up 8-8, much less 10-6. Stick with this pick across the board.

Tampa Bay Bucs: Original prediction, under 8.5 (6-10). They’re 2-6 with games left against Dallas, Chicago, and Atlanta. The under is definitely correct, I may have given them too much credit.

What have we learned by all this? I’m better at picking the NFL than the MLB. This is why I don’t bet on baseball.

Back Wednesday with the AFC Review and some thoughts on just what happened to the defending champions.