I had a column just about ready with predictions about the MLB awards (Ramirez, Verlander, Carpenter, Girardi, Leyland, Santana, Pujols, Morneau), but I didn’t have it finished quite in time. So instead, I’ll give my opinion about the 2 hot topic picks: both MVPs.
For the NL, I thought the award should have gone to Albert Pujols. Bernie Miklasz, of the St. Louis Post Dispatch, agrees with me:
Remember the baseball marketing slogan, “Chicks dig the long ball?” Well, baseball writers dig the long ball, too. They’re just as seduced by home runs and RBIs as any fan in the stands. I would hope that my colleagues would be more discerning, but it isn’t the case.
Here’s why Pujols was the MVP:
– If you want to use the more traditional statistics, Pujols was the only hitter in the NL to finish in the top five in average (3rd), homers (2nd), RBIs (2nd), runs (5th), on-base percentage (1st), slugging percentage (1st), and batting average with runners in scoring position (1st).
– If you want to use sabermetrics, Pujols was first in the NL in Value Over Replacement, first in Win Shares, first in Equivalent Average, first in Runs Created, first in Win Probability Added.
– If you want to zero in on clutch hitting, Pujols led the NL with a .397 batting average with runners in scoring position. Howard ranked 51st in the NL with a .256 average with runners in scoring position. With runners in scoring position and two out, Pujols hit a preposterous .435. Howard batted .247.
– If you want to downgrade Pujols because the Cardinals struggled in September, then I would simply ask why this should be held against him. In the final month, Pujols batted .372 with 10 homers and 28 RBIs. In the final week of the regular season, Pujols batted .370 with four homers and eight RBIs. And if I’m not mistaken, Philadelphia was in strong position to win the wild card, only to go 3-4 in the final week.
– Pujols was the NL’s best defensive first baseman. In the Baseball Prospectus defensive-rating stat, Fielding Runs Above Replacement, Pujols was a plus 25. Howard was a minus 5.
– Pujols finished eighth in the NL in extra bases taken as a runner; he would have rated even higher on the chart had he not missed nearly three weeks with a strained oblique.
– If you want to say that Howard “carried” the Phillies’ lineup, then I must simply ask why is it that two of Howard’s lineup mates received MVP votes? Philly second baseman Chase Utley finished eighth overall in the voting and was named on 26 of 32 ballots. Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins also received a ninth-place vote. No other Cardinals position player received a vote. So how can anyone possibly argue that Howard carried the Phillies more than Pujols carried the injury-ravaged Cardinals?
– Pujols hit 49 homers and drove in 137 runs. Howard is the undisputed HR champion, and we salute him. But what about RBIs? The voters love RBIs. And Howard had 149 RBIs, 12 more than Pujols. But let’s look beneath the surface numbers. Howard had more RBIs than Pujols for an obvious reason: He had more RBI opportunities. Howard had 358 plate appearances with runners on base; Pujols had 301 plate appearances with runners on base. The Phillies had 509 runners on base for Howard’s at-bats; the Cardinals had 429 runners on base for Pujols’ at-bats. Howard had 164 at-bats with runners in scoring position; Pujols had 126 at-bats with runners in scoring position. And despite having 38 fewer at bats in those situations, Pujols actually drove in more runs than Howard, 88-83.
– As we said, Howard is the HR champ. But since we’re counting them all, don’t forget that Pujols swatted a major-league record 20 game-winning homers this season, the most since Willie Mays had 19 in 1962. (Howard had nine game-winning HRs).
– Colleague Rick Hummel points out that Pujols had 25 homers and 65 RBIs through May 31 to push the Cardinals to 15 games over .500. Howard received many deserved kudos for leading the Phillies in August and September, but unless MLB changed the rules, I believe that games played in April and May also count in the standings.
He basically summed up everything I had. I’m at least happy that someone from St. Louis won the award. I’m sure Pujols is just happy with the World Series ring he’ll have too.
The NL voting didn’t have anywhere near the coverage that the ALs did.
All I’ve heard about since Justin Morneau was announced as the AL MVP was “Jeter deserved it more” and “Morneau wasn’t even the best player on the team.” There are 2 things to argue to that.
First, Morneau was benched June 7, when he was hitting .236 with 11 home runs and 38 RBIs. The Twins were 25-33 at that point and looked like they were going to finish at best 3rd in the AL Central. The only thing the team had going for it was Johan Santana was pitching like Johan Santana and catcher Joe Mauer was hitting near .400.
Morneau came back the next day and hit .346 with 23 homers and 92 RBIs from that point on. The Twins as a team followed his lead, posting a 71-33 record (and had the best record in the second half). The Twins over took the Tigers for the AL Central lead; the Tigers held the lead for nearly the entire season before that point.
Secondly, Morneau was one of 3 players many considered from the Twins as their top player.
Santana was at a disadvantage in the MVP voting: pitchers rarely win the award. I don’t necessarily agree with that, but he already won the Cy Young so many voters wouldn’t consider him for the MVP. I wish they would have given it to him to make up for shafting him last year in the Cy Young voting.
Mauer did what everyone expected of him, but as the season wore on, he wore down. His early season flirtation with .400 soon dropped back to Earth (but not enough that he would lose the batting title). If defense were more commonly associated with the award, Mauer may have moved ahead of his teammates; since he handled the pitchers, he had more value to the team than other position players.
Ultimately, Morneau’s turning point, which in turn was the Twins turning point, gave him the advantage over his teammates. We’ll never know if the team would have turned around like they did, Morneau’s hand in it was recognized (as it should have been). I don’t know about you guys, a player who hit .321 with 34 homers and 130 RBIs sounds like a true MVP candidate to me.
For all the Jeter fans, do remember that when the Yankees needed help they were able to take on the contract of Bobby Abreu, the Twins only could bring on Phil Nevin. “But the Twins had Joe Mauer”¦” and the Yankees still had A-Rod; while it was an off year, he was still better than 75% of the players in the majors. “Francisco Liriano was better than anyone in the Yankees staff”¦” except for Chin-Ming Wang, who put up good numbers and did it for the full season. “Torii Hunter”¦” was out played by Johnny Damon. I could do this all day. As long as the Yankees field teams that could compete with the NL All Stars, it will be hard for one player to win the MVP from them.
The debates already started in the forums. Voice your opinion here too.
