Let’s cut right to the chase. Here are the players on the just released 2007 Hall of Fame ballot who’d get my vote, if I had one (in alphabetical order). In addition, I’ve included a few words that I wrote about each player during my ten-part(!) Hall of Fame feature here on Inside Pulse back in January 2005:
Bert Blyleven: He recorded 3,701 career strikeouts. This placed him third all time when he retired, but Roger Clemens and The Big Unit have nudged him down to fifth. Secondly, there’s a stat called ERA-plus. Blyleven’s career ERA of 3.31 was 18% lower than the composite of every other pitcher who took the mound during Blyleven’s career. 287 wins is nothing to sneeze at and it might be more impressive considering the fact that he did not get to pitch in a true pitcher’s park (or with a strong offensive team) for any long stretch.
Goose Gossage: 310 saves doesn’t seem like much these days and Goose hurt his per season save average by spending his final five years in middle relief. He averaged less than two saves in each of those seasons, which was a far cry from his heyday. (But) from 1977 until 1985, no one could touch this guy. Six of those seasons were spent in New York, where he topped out at 33 saves in 1980 and registered an ERA of 0.77 the following (strike-shortened) year.
Tony Gwynn: Here is what made Gwynn a Hall of Famer: In 20 seasons, he won eight batting titles, while leading the league in hits seven separate times. He stood up strongly against his peers, with 15 All-Star games and seven top 10 finishes in the MVP balloting. Up until his early 30’s, he was also an accomplished defender (five Gold Gloves) and a terrific base stealer.
Mark McGwire: He’s a 12-time All Star with 583 career home runs and the 11th best OPS of all time. His andro admissions will likely factor into the minds of a few voters, but there’s still no clinical proof that anything he took actually made him hit the ball farther or with more frequency.
Cal Ripken: His 431 home runs helped usher in the era of the power-hitting middle infielder. With 3,184 hits, 1,695 RBI and 1,647 runs scored in 21 seasons, Ripken managed to match productivity with his longevity. And, then there’s the whole consecutive games played thing. 2,632 consecutive games played, to be exact…spanning every season from 1982-1998.
Lee Smith: Smith’s career ERA of 3.03 was nearly a full run lower than the league average during his tenure. The save is an overvalued stat, but someone’s gotta be the all time leader and it is Lee Smith. (Again, remember when I wrote this.) He was durable and dependable for the majority of his 18-year career and better than all but the most elite closers in the game. Smith comes in a tick below that standard, so we can classify his career either at “the high end of very good” or “the low end of greatness”. The former says you’re out, the latter says you’re in. Smith is the latter.
Of course, Lil’ Aaron doesn’t get an official say in the Hall of Fame balloting, so I’m left to wonder who the writers will actually enshrine.
From where I sit, there are four former players who are rock-solid locks to be inducted. Two have just become eligible and, essentially will be elected on their own statistical merit. Messrs. Gwynn and Ripken”¦immortality awaits.
Two other players will finally make the cut and they both can thank last year’s election of Bruce Sutter and 10,000 former Negro Leaguers for the honor.
Arguably, Rich “Goose” Gossage has long been one of the three greatest players to not make the Hall of Fame. The undeserving induction of Sutter forced the more indifferent, disconnected baseball writers (who make up a ridiculous majority of the voters) to take another look at the greatness of Gossage. This might be viewed as a conciliatory gesture by some of the more cynical but, not unlike sex, who really cares how a guy gets in?
The other guaranteed inductee is the late Buck O’Neil. Many viewed his induction last year as a mere formality when it was first leaked that the Hall of Fame would be admitting a slew of former Negro League players, managers, administrators and ambassadors. Inexplicably, he didn’t make the cut. Then, at the HOF ceremony this past August, he wowed the crowd with a graceful and classy speech that preceded the official induction of those who wrongfully got in before him.
That leaves three of my six picks on the outside looking in.
Lee Smith’s chances weren’t that great to begin with as his primary argument for induction rested on his status as the all-time saves leader. Thanks to Trevor Hoffman, Smith no longer carries that distinction. And, sometime during the 2008 season, Mariano Rivera should pass him, too.
Bert Blyleven has long been the cause celebre for the sabermetric community, but he’s very slowly gaining ground among the more “traditional” (i.e. less informed) voters. He’ll probably never get the 75% he needs for induction, but he still has time.
And, then there’s Mark McGwire.
The BBWAA seems set on “making an example” of him. Some say they’ll vote for him one day, but not on the first ballot. As if that empty gesture carries any significant meaning. These people do know that Joe DiMaggio wasn’t inducted on the first ballot, right?
Others say that they’ll never vote for McGwire based on his non-answers during last year’s Congressional Grandstanding by our elected officials. Yet as poorly as McGwire came across that day, the best that the HOF voters can conclude from McGwire’s testimony is that he “might’ve” or “probably” did steroids. Never mind that we’ll never know for certain who was juicing and who wasn’t during the so-called steroid era (1985-20??), so why not base this witch hunt on who looks like they’re roided up?
Isn’t that how they caught Rafael Palmeiro?
Personally, my favorite shots at McGwire are the retroactive ones that the anti-Mac faction has dug up accusing McGwire of being “one-dimensional” because he “only hit home runs” and that he was a “weak” hitter as evidenced by his .263 career BA and 1,626 career hits.
Idiots.
Now, I’ve got no love lost for McGwire who pissed, bitched and moaned his way out of Oakland in 1997. His public demand for a trade gave my A’s zero leverage when they basically gave him away to St. Louis. Still, let’s look at these ridiculous arguments.
As a hitter, the home run is what’s known as”¦stay with me, now”¦”the best case scenario”. A guy who hits almost 600 of them isn’t one-dimensional, he’s f*cking awesome. Second, batting average is probably the worst single stat to gauge the “goodness” of a hitter. McGwire’s .588 SLG is 10th all time, his .982 OPS is 13th.
Would McGwire look more attractive to these people with 400 more singles and a few dozen stolen bases to add another “dimension” or two to his stat line?
OK, so I’m running out of time and space here. I’ve covered most of the other 2007 nominees in the aforementioned HOF feature. You can find those here. (Quick note: For some reason, the pages don’t always load and you’ll get a load of HTML gibberish, instead. Just click ‘refresh’ until it appears.)
The Class of 2007 will be announced on January 9.
