Happy Hour: Just How Good is Boise State?

Is there any point in drawing out an opening paragraph when the topic at hand has been debated for years now? We’ll put a face on the current BCS controversy by asking a simple question, in lieu of this team’s amazing victory over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl; does Boise State University deserve a shot at the National Championship?

Maybe the more prudent question is this: Could a national championship-winning football team be playing on “Smurf Turf” in 2007?

As we speak, Boise State has a 50/50 chance of finishing the 2006 College Football Season as the lone undefeated Division I program in the nation. That alone warrants at least the discussion of Boise earning a shot at the top college football team in the land. Boise State has several criteria met for the warranting of a shot at the national championship: a perfect 13-0 record, with the WAC Championship and the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl in their résumé. Of course, the real accomplishment was earning a shot to play in a BCS Bowl to begin with. A self-described “mid-major”, the university plays in a conference that is not automatically guaranteed a bowl bid. For Boise State to even qualify for a berth in a BCS bowl, they not only had to win out, but win out impressively. As only the alleged ninth best team in the country, they warranted at least a berth in the Fiesta Bowl, although some might have had loftier visions.

The Broncos will undoubtedly have strikes placed against them for their weaker schedule than teams like #2 Florida (SEC), #4 LSU (SEC), and #8 USC (PAC-10). However, we really need to look at every team’s schedule that was ranked ahead of Boise State after Week 17 to see whether or not Boise State deserved more than the Fiesta Bowl. For our purposes, we’ll look at the biggest wins for each team (with the criteria being wins against ranked opponents at the time of the game, strong in-conference opponents, and then strong out-of-conference games). The bowl victories will not be included in our arguments, although I’ve placed the results of each team’s bowl games down for reference.

#1 Ohio State
– Notable Wins: #2 Texas (24-7), #24 Penn state (28-6), #13 Iowa (38-17), #2 Michigan (42-39)
– Wins: Northern Illinois, Cincinnati, BGU, Michigan State, Indiana, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern
– Losses: None
– Bowl Game: #1 Ohio State vs. #2 Florida (01/08/2007)

#2 Florida
– Notable Wins: #13 Tennessee (21-20), #9 LSU (23-10), #8 Arkansas (38-28)
– Wins: Southern Mississippi, Central Florida, Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Western Carolina, Florida State
– Losses: #11 Auburn (27-17)
– Bowl Game: #1 Ohio State vs. #2 Florida (01/08/2007)

#3 Michigan
Notable Wins: #2 Notre Dame (47-21), Wisconsin (27-13)
Wins: Vanderbilt, Central Michigan, Minnesota, Michigan State, Penn State, Iowa, Northwestern, Ball State, Indiana
Losses: #1 Ohio State (42-39)
Bowl Game: #8 USC 32, #3 Michigan 18

#4 LSU
– Notable Wins: #8 Tennessee (28-24), #5 Arkansas (31-26)
– Wins: Louisiana Lafayette, Arizona, Tulane, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Fresno State, Alabama, Ole Miss
– Losses: #3 Auburn (7-3), #5 Florida (23-10)
– Bowl Game: #4 LSU 41, #11 Notre Dame 14

#5 Louisville
– Notable Wins: #17 Miami (31-7), #3 West Virginia (44-34)
– Wins: Kentucky, Temple, Kansas State, Middle Tennessee State, Cincinnati, Syracuse, South Florida, Pitt, UConn
– Losses: #15 Rutgers (28-25)
– Bowl Game: #5 Louisville 24, #15 Wake Forest 13

#6 Wisconsin
– Notable Wins: Minnesota (48-12), Penn State (13-3), Iowa (24-21)
– Wins: BGU, Western Illinois, SDSU, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois, Buffalo
– Losses: #6 Michigan (27-13)
– Bowl Game: #6 Wisconsin 17, #12 Arkansas 14

#7 Oklahoma
– Notable Wins: #23 Missouri (26-10), #21 Texas A&M (17-16), #19 Nebraska (21-7)
– Wins: UAB, Washington, Middle Tennessee State, Iowa State, Colorado, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma State
– Losses: #18 Oregon (34-33), #7 Texas (28-10)
– Bowl Game: #9 Boise State 43, #7 Oklahoma 42

#8 USC
– Notable Wins: #19 Nebraska (28-10), #21 Oregon (35-10), #17 California (23-9), #6 Notre Dame (44-24)
– Wins: Arkansas, Arizona, Washington State, Washington, Arizona State, Stanford
– Losses: Oregon State (33-31), UCLA (13-9)
– Bowl Game: #8 USC , #3 Michigan

#9 Boise State
– Notable Wins: Oregon State (42-14), Hawaii (41-34), San Jose State (23-20), Nevada (38-7)
– Wins: Sacramento State, Wyoming, Utah, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, Idaho, Fresno State, Utah State
– Losses: None
– Bowl Game: #9 Boise State 43, #7 Oklahoma 42

Okay, now we can go through this pretty quickly. The idea here is to attempt to gauge where Boise State should have been ranked as the regular season and conference championships ended. As we start with #8 USC, we look not just at victories against tough opponents, but also losses against weaker teams. USC had two losses against unranked teams (Oregon State and UCLA), which is compounded when Boise State actually played and defeated Oregon State. Out of the top four USC victories, only one was against a Top 10 team, and that came against a suspect Notre Dame team. They would go on to upset Michigan in the Rose Bowl, but two losses to unranked opponents and a less impressive résumé after the Sugar Bowl moves USC down a notch.

It is pretty obvious that Boise State would jump over Oklahoma, seeing as the Broncos just defeated them in the Fiesta Bowl. While their only two losses came against #18 Oregon (off a bad call) and against #7 Texas, the Texas loss looks less impressive after another Texas loss to close out the regular season. Boise State jumps Oklahoma. Moving up to Wisconsin now, who stands as the first one-loss team in the countdown. Wisconsin is a lot like Boise State, in that they have no victories against ranked teams on their dossier. Their lone loss came at the hands of #2 Michigan, which speaks wonders about their talent. Yet their lack of strong competition and the one loss drop Wisconsin down below Boise State as well (both teams would defeat ranked opponents in their bowl game, so this assessment is not far off the mark).

Now it gets more challenging to make a case for Boise State. As we come to #5 Louisville, we come to a team that has only one loss in a conference that features two other highly ranked teams. Louisville had victories over two ranked teams during the course of their season: at home against #17 Miami and #3 West Virginia. The Miami victory, which happened at the start of the season, is less impressive now however, and the one loss came at the hands of Rutgers, whose stature is also diminished thanks to an embarrassing loss to lowly Cincinnati. For this reason, I will give the slightest of edges to Boise State.

#4 LSU is actually easier than #5 Louisville, simply because the bowl games have no effect on our opinion and because of the extra loss. While the SEC is touted as the best football conference in the nation, it bares mentioning that LSU only has two victories against ranked opponents from within their conference – against #8 Tennessee and #5 Arkansas. Their two losses came at the hands of #5 Florida and #3 Auburn. It also bares mentioning that LSU also scheduled Fresno State, along with lackluster teams like Tulane and Arizona. Two losses, and a surprisingly lackluster victory list move LSU down as well.

#3 Michigan is the most perplexing team in the list to me. They were ranked as a Top 10 school to start the season, and there is no denying that they have talent. Their lone loss of the season (prior to the Rose Bowl) was at the hands of Ohio State in a close game. Yet Michigan was the beneficiary of a lot of luck. Their first major victory came against the second best team in the country at the time, Notre Dame. That win is hardly as impressive as it was at the time. That was their only victory against a ranked opponent at the time of the game, although they do hold a victory over Wisconsin, which would finish the season in the Top 10. The Notre Dame victory, coupled with the collapse of Texas earned Michigan a #2 seed, although their victories are less than inspiring: Vanderbilt, Central Michigan, Minnesota, Michigan State, Penn State, Iowa, Northwestern, Indiana, and a nail-biter victory against lowly Ball State of all teams. When you put two and two together, Michigan’s schedule was nowhere near as strong as Ohio State. The closeness of the game saves them tremendously however, and it is extremely hard for me to vault Boise State ahead of Michigan based on their pre-Bowl records. Boise State has victories over Nevada (8-5), San Jose State (9-4), and the criminally underrated Hawaii team (11-3). Are those three victories enough to supersede victories against one loss Wisconsin and undefeated Ohio State. In my estimation, they are not, which is why Boise State was the fourth best team in the country heading into the bowl season.

Happy Hour’s Top Ten (Pre-Bowl Season)
01. Ohio State
02. Florida
03. Michigan
04. Boise State
05. Louisville
06. LSU
07. Oklahoma
08. USC
09. Wisconsin
10. Auburn

Happy Hour’s Top Ten (As of 01/04/2007)
01. Ohio State
02. Florida
03. Boise State
04. Louisville
05. LSU
06. USC
07. Wisconsin
08. Auburn
09. West Virginia
10. Rutgers

So, we’re back to the question at hand. All things considered, does Boise State deserve a crack at Ohio State. I would say that the answer is yes, simply because there are plenty of teams that still deserve a crack at Ohio State, like one loss Louisville and even teams like LSU and USC who lost two games. A playoff system may take money out of the pockets of some college presidents, but it remains the only fair way to truly gauge who is and who isn’t the best of the best in college football. I will say this, however, and it’s sure to make a few skeptics laugh. If Florida upsets Ohio State in Monday’s national title game, do not be surprised of a mini-controversy erupts over who really is the National Champions – undefeated Boise State or one-loss Florida. It will be a question that could linger for years.