The Kentucky Derby is unlike any race even the most regular racegoer will encounter all year for the following reasons:
-The field size, 20 horses, will be the largest you will encounter all year unless you like betting overseas races like the 24-horse Melbourne Cup or the 40-horse Grand National Steeplechase.
-The young three-year-olds will run further than they ever have in their lives and at this stage of their development, further than they really should.
– Nonetheless, this is the big prize. There may be more lucrative races down the road, but they can only win the Derby once, so it’s all or nothing for each of these competitors.
So let’s sort it out. Here are the runners and a look at their chances (in post position order):
1. SEDGEFIELD – Has some minor placings in graded races. Not impressed.
2. CURLIN – So this is the favourite. No wonder after winning the Arkansas Derby by over 10 lengths. But he has only raced three times (trying to be the first winner since 1915 with so few starts). He never raced as a two-year-old (trying to be the first since 1889 to win the Derby without a juvenile start), and quite frankly, I’m not sure who he beat at Oaklawn. If talented enough, he might win the Triple Crown but there’s also the sense that the Derby could be a case of too much, too soon. Then again, I can’t leave him out. Post 2 will be fine for him.
3. ZANJERO – Has been knocking on the door in stakes but has yet to win one. If you like taking a shot at a huge price, this could be your guy.
4. STORM IN MAY – Someone had to finish second to Curlin at Oaklawn. Otherwise just a maiden and allowance win in eights starts. Nope.
5. IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY – Was a poor sixth in the Florida Derby. Clearly taking a shot in the dark here.
6. COWTOWN CAT – This is one of the five runners trained by Todd Pletcher and this is one I really like. He comes off nice wins in the Gotham at Aqueduct and the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne. May not have beaten the best fields in either but seems to be peaking at the right time.
7. STREET SENSE – For my money, this is still the best horse in the field. His Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was breathtaking and this is his home track. If any horse is going to break the “Juvenile Jinx†(No Breeders’ Cup winner has won the Derby the next year), this guy may be the one. Trainer Carl Nafzger won one of these with Unbridled in 1990. The post position is perfect.
8. HARD SPUN – Won the Lanes End on the Turfway Park polytrack six weeks ago. Has only lost once but I just see him a notch below the others. People are still buzzing about his workout on Monday but it seemed too fast for a horse going into a 1 1/4-mile race.
9. LIQUIDITY – Has picked up some cheques in graded races but only has a maiden win to his credit. Can’t see it.
10. TEUFLESBERG – Has raced 15 times already which in this day and age is incredible. Only a couple of ungraded stakes wins though.
11. BWANA BULL – Nice win at Bay Meadows but would like to have seen him do more in the Santa Anita Derby. Again not a serious contender.
12. NOBIZ LIKESHOBIZ – Barclay Tagg’s Derby dream came true when he sent Funny Cide to win in 2003 (The old gelding is still going, by the way). This runner was amazing in the Remsen last year and had a workmanlike win in the Wood Memorial a few weeks ago. Iwouldn’t fault anyone who likes him.
13. SAM P. – Pletcher entry was third in the Santa Anita Derby but little else on his resume.
14. SCAT DADDY – Another Pletcher-trained runner. Pletcher, considered the best trainer in North America, did not win with his first 14 starters so can one of these get the job done? The Florida Derby win was nice, and I loved his Champagne win last year. The layoff is an issue but hopefully, he won’t be caught up in too fast an early pace.
15. TIAGO – These connections hit the jackpot two years ago when Giacomo had the perfect trip in his Derby win. Note though he did nothing of consequence since. This guy was a longshot winner of the Santa Anita Derby and Ijust wonder if he may have put in his miracle run one race too early.
16. CIRCULAR QUAY – Pletcher runner has been off since his Louisiana Derby win in early March. People hate the layoff but that’s racing nowadays. Horses need more time off than ever before. My problem with this one is that he comes from waaaay off the pace and traffic can be an issue. Though outside post position will help his chances.
17. STORMELLO – Won the Hollywood Futurity last year and lost narrowly to Scat Daddy at Gulfstream in February. May surprise at a price.
18. ANYGIVENSATURDAY – Pletcher runner has knocked heads with the best. Just got narrowly beat by Street Sense at Tampa in March and later finished third in the Wood Memorial. D. Wayne Lukas won a couple of Derbies with the “weaker†part of his entry (Thunder Gulch in ‘95 and Charismatic in ‘99). Does Todd have a surprise for us here? He’ll have to overcome a tough post.
19. DOMINICAN – Beat Street Sense by a nose in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. That race was on the synthetic Polytrack and horses going from that back to dirt seem to do o.k. He will also benefit from a strong early pace. Put a saver on him because he’ll be value with this bad post.
20. GREAT HUNTER – Doug O’Neill-trained runner has a Grade 1 win to his credit and won a Grade 2 at Santa Anita in March. Was fifth at Keeneland a few weeks ago and I just think he’s a step below the best and being on the far outside will hurt.
Selections: Street Sense, Curlin, Scat Daddy, Cowtown Cat.
