With the fight just a little over a month away, I thought I’d open the floor to a little prognostication.
I’m a little biased when it comes to BJ: he’s my favorite fighter, and there aren’t a whole lot of dull moments in most of his fights. Yes, he is 1-3 since 2004, but let’s look at those for second. Two of those losses came to the top 170-pounders in the world and he went up 35 pounds in weight for the other fight against Ryoto (see, Wong–I can learn after all) Machida.
Yes, the Penn haters say that his fans are always making excuses for his losses, but that’s because none of his opponents have ever dominated him. He lost a razor-close decision to St. Pierre that could have easily gone the other way, he was destroying Matt Hughes until he broke his rib, and he had to go way up in weight to fight Machida.
And his win? He only utterly destroyed the guy that most people consider to be the top lightweight in the world–Takanori Gomi.
Jens, on the other hand, is a tough competitor and a member of the best fight team in North America; of course, he’s got his famous knockout power and terrific submission defense. Still, compare Jens’s record over the last three years with BJ’s: Jens is 3-3, but largely against inferior competition. Plus, he was knocked out in all three losses (Sakurai and Gomi were the other two guys that put Jens to sleep), including the Lauzon fight.
I think that Jens is going to be game, but BJ’s a much better fighter at this point in his career than he was in their first fight (his fourth professional fight), and Jens is going to have a hard time getting past that. I see a referee stoppage in the second round with Penn winning by either TKO or technical submission (probably a chokeout).
