The UFC is enjoying some serious mainstream exposure right now. They’ve got a positive feature in this week’s Sports Illustrated (including Roger Huerta as the cover boy), and after a successful card in Manchester, England, they’re back in the (professional) fighting capital of the world, Lost Wages, NV for a Memorial Day Weekend tilt.
Yep, there’s no better way to honour those who have died in military action than to have two people try to beat each other up. Except maybe to watch people in cars turn left 1000 times.
The marketing experts at Zuffa put their creative heads together, and managed to come up with a misleading subtitle of “Liddell vs. Jackson”. Why is it misleading? Well, the inference is that it’s the first meeting between the two, but the hype notes that one of Chuck’s three losses was at the hands of Rampage Jackson. If my math is correct, that would make this Liddell vs. Jackson II, hence the parentheses in the title above.
But you’re not here to see me nitpick. You want to see my (notoriously poor) predictions – and then bet on the other guy – in a friendly, non-monetary sort of wager, of course. So let’s look at the card (fight records are from Sherdog.com’s Fight Finder):
MAIN EVENT – LIGHT-HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (Irvine, CA, 26-6) vs. (c) “The Iceman” Chuck Liddell (San Luis Obispo, CA, 20-3)
As has been stated many times, Chuck has had only 3 defeats in his career, and he’s avenged two of them, decisively beating Jeremy Horn and Randy Couture. He’s now set to avenge his final loss, which seemed to happen a lifetime ago.
In 2003, Pride held a Middleweight Grand Prix (183-205 lbs), and Chuck Liddell was entered as the “UFC representative”, although Murilo Bustamante could also be considered as one since he’d just moved over to Pride. Meeting in the semi-finals, Jackson earned a TKO victory when Chuck’s corner threw in the towel in round 2. Jackson ended up losing the finals to Wanderlei Silva, but his efforts helped to cement his position as a top fighter in Pride.
Since then, Jackson has lost twice more, to Shogun Rua and again to Silva, but has also defeated some tough competition in Ricardo Arona, Ninja Rua and Matt Lindland. His first UFC match allowed him to avenge a loss to the insane pecs of Marvin Eastman, and now he’s looking to defeat Liddell again.
Since losing to Jackson, Chuck has done nothing but win by TKO (although really the win over Horn was a verbal tapout), gaining the UFC Light-Heavyweight title in the process. He’s taken down all the top men in the division, and Rampage is pretty much all that’s left unless they think Jardine is ready.
I think Chuck will win here, as he seems to have perfected his cage strategy, but in truth a loss is unlikely to hurt either fighter, and even a semi-entertaining match all but guarantees a rematch in 2007 unless they decide on a Lidell-Henderson “superfight”.
Prediction: Liddell, TKO R2
LIVE FIGHTS
Middleweights: Terry Martin (Chicago, IL, 17-2) vs. Ivan Salaverry (Seattle, WA, 11-3-1)
The last time we saw Salaverry in the Octagon, he lost a decision in the boring main event of the inaugural Ultimate Fight Night. He’s back in the UFC by virtue of having his contract purchased along with other WFA assets (like that Rampage guy). The pankration fighter can be quite flashy and graceful in a fight, and I think that with his last UFC fight in mind, he will try to make this a better fight.
In his first fight at 185, Terry Martin destroyed Jorge Rivera in 14 seconds. He’s not the tallest guy around, but as seen in his fight with James Irvin, he’s got some great takedowns, and obviously some heavy hands. At 5’9″, he’s at an obvious height disadvantage, so I’d expect that he’ll do his best to get inside and bring the fight to Salaverry. My only question is whether he has good conditioning.
Prediction: Salaverry, Decision
Welterweights: “The People’s Warrior” Josh Burkman (Salt Lake City, UT, 19-3) vs. Karo “The Heat” Parisyan (North Hollywood, CA, 24-3)
I’m really looking forward to this fight. But then again, I always look forward to a Karo Parisyan fight. Most of his UFC fights have gone to a decision, but not for lack of action. Karo always tries to push the pace and wear you down, and his judo throws are always nice to watch.
Burkman was probably the class of TUF 2 but an early injury means that we’ll never know unless he fights his buddy Joe Stevenson. The Team Punishment (?) member is a great wrestler who similar to Karo likes to punch, but the question I have is whether he can withstand the pressure “The Heat” will bring. This could be a show stealer.
Prediction: Parisyan, Decision
Light-Heavyweights: “The Assassin” Houston Alexander (Omaha, NB, 6-1 1 NC) vs. “The Dean of Mean” Keith Jardine (Albuquerque, NM, 12-2-1)
Word on the street has it that noone wants to fight Jardine, and after his pummelling of perrenial fan favourite Forrest Griffin, it’s pretty easy to see why. He’s gone to a decision 3 out of his last 4 bouts, but none of them could be considered “boring”, and certainly his opponents can attest to the man’s ability.
Which brings us to Houston Alexander. He’s an unknown to me but thankfully the UFCJunkie crew managed to track him down and get an exclusive interview. Houston is not a full-time fighter, as he works as a radio DJ in Omaha. But he feels that he’s a well-rounded fighter, and has former world champion kickboxer Mick Doyle helping him with striking. He definitely gives off that “happy to be here” vibe, but I get the feeling that he’s not going to be tentative his first time at “the show”. Still, Jardine is seasoned in the Octagon, has fought several tough opponents, and isn’t likely to look over a guy he likely knows nothing about. Especially given the results of the last 3 “PPV” main events. This fight could surprise us.
But should Jardine mow his way through Mr. Alexander, expect his next opponent to be part time MMA fighter and Survivor: Fiji contestant Kenward “Boo” Bernis. If that happens, we need Murtz to hook us up with an exclusive.
Prediction: Jardine, TKO R2
Middleweights: Kalib Starnes (Surrey, BC, 7-1-1) vs. Chris “The Crippler” Leben (Portland, OR, 16-3)
For the fourth time in 9 UFC fights, Leben is matched up against a Canadian. Last time out, Leben was put to sleep by Jason MacDonald, while Starnes (who actually holds a victory over MacDonald) suffered a 3rd round TKO at the hands of Yushin Okami. Both guys like to bang, so I’d expect a standup war. Starnes has apparently been training with American Top Team to try and improve, so this will be a test to see if things worked out for him. Leben, meanwhile, is on the tail end of his UFC contract, so a good showing would definitely increase his value on the free agent wire. And the sooner he’s off my television, the better, I say.
Prediction: Starnes, Decision
PRELIMINARY FIGHTS
Light-Heavyweights: Thiago Silva (Sao Paolo, Brazil, 9-0) vs. James “Sandman” Irvin (Sacremento, CA, 12-3)
So Irvin knocks out Terry Martin with a highlight reel flying knee, but Martin drops down in weight, stops Jorge Rivera in 14 seconds and earns a fight on the PPV. While that doesn’t seem fair, the truth is that Martin dominated Irvin in the first round, and that flying knee was pretty much a lucky shot. Irvin was dominated in his match against Stephan Bonnar and then lost to Lodune fricking Sincaid in a WEC title fight. But he did blast Hector Ramirez in his last fight, so the story here is – anything’s possible from James Irvin.
Silva comes out of the famed Chute Boxe Academy in Brazil, and is a BJJ Black Belt. He’s very much a striker, but I don’t know how comfortable he is in a cage. I’d expect a standup battle, and if the records of the two fighters are any indication, it’ll be a short one.
Prediction: Silva, TKO R1
Light-Heavyweights: Sean “UFC Junkie” Salmon (Columbus, OH, 9-2) vs. “The Talent” Alan Belcher (Biloxi, MS, 9-3)
Belcher is a late replacement for Eric Schafer (broken rib) and is moving up a weight class to take on Salmon. Both men are coming off losses to TUF winners in their previous appearances – Salmon via a Rashad Evans boot to the head, Belcher via tapout to Kendall Grove. Because he’s taking the fight on 11 days notice, it’s a positive that Belcher doesn’t have to cut weight, but Salmon was already a big light-heavyweight and the wrestler should have a sheer size advantage over Belcher here.
Prediction: Salmon, Decision
Lightweights: “L’il Heathen” Jeremy Stephens (Des Moines, IA, 13-1) vs. Din “DinYero” Thomas (Port St. Lucie, FL, 22-7)
Jerramy Stevens pisses me off because he’s always shown flashes of potential but has never really achieved much. And now he’s on a team that has the potential to really underachieve. I bet Glazer’s glad that he owns the Red Devils.
So yeah, not a lot on Stephens, but Din Thomas is another matter. He’s a versatile fighter who has earned two straight victories since “The Comeback”, including a decision victory over the highly touted Clay Guida (who fights next month in Ireland). He’s not going to make things easy for the “L’il Heathen”. In fact, Din’s probably going to try to make Stephens feel downright miserable.
Prediction: Thomas, Decision
Light-Heavyweights: Carmelo “The Fury” Marrero (Douglassville, PA, 6-1) vs. Wilson Gouveia (Coconut Creek, FL, 8-4)
After two fights in the Heavyweight division, Marrero drops down to 205 to face American Top Team member Wilson Gouveia. After a debut loss to Keith Jardine, Gouveia has gone 2-0 in the UFC with a submission victory over veteran Wes Combs and a TKO over Seth Petruzelli. Merrero, meanwhile, is coming off of a submission loss to Gabriel Gonzaga. After UFC 70, he’s probably glad it wasn’t a KO. Merrero’s a ground and pound guy, but with Gouveia’s all-around skills, I can’t see The Fury escaping with a victory.
Prediction: Gouveia, TKO R1
Picks in a nutshell:
Chuck Liddell (c) def Rampage Jackson
Ivan Salaverry def Terry Martin
Karo Parisyan def Josh Burkman (and makes Arianny sad)
Keith Jardine def Houston Alexander
Kalib Stares def Chris Leben
Thiago Silva def James Irvin
Sean Salmon def Alan Belcher
Din Thomas def Jeremy Stephens
Wilson Gouveia def Carmelo Marrero
If you live in the U.S., enjoy the long weekend!
