I’ve been putting off writing this column because I was scared of it. July and August are supposed to be the time to be excited for football regardless of how bad your team was last season. I mean we’re talking about a league of 32 teams where 12 of them are going to get into the playoffs and, since they went to four divisions, your team just needs to be less crappy than 10 of the other teams that didn’t win their division. It’s the brilliance of the the NFL. Even when they didn’t have a salary cap to make billionaires richer and screw the players and fans encourage parity, lots of teams made the playoffs. Once you get into the playoffs, anyone’s got a shot. This was one of the first years I was actually dreading football season. It was set to be the first season since the Ray “I got thrown under the bus for not being Bill Parcells†Handley era that I was hating the thought of baseball season being over.
But, a funny thing happened on the way to my dread. I started paying attention. What I noticed was: the NFC still kinda sucks. On top of that… no one in the NFC East is any better than they were last season. In the NFC East, it’s not so much “who got better” as it is “who got the least worse.” Should we make a list? Let’s.
1) Filthy Cowboys: It remains to be seen if Tony Romo will recover from his delicious failure. That’s the kind of play that can wreck a player. With “competent” back-up Brad Johnson waiting in the wings, Romo’s got some pressure. They downgraded from “Cadillac” to “Geo Metro” in the coaching department (funny story, Bill Parcells’s retirement home is in my home town now… nice place). New coach Wade Phillips gets to play the T.O. game with ESPN this season. If Parcells was unable to make Owens behave… what the hell is Wade Phillips going to do?
2) Filthy Eagles: The warranty on the “mobile quarterback” apparently expires at age 28. Donovan McNabb will turn 31 this November. This means McNabb either needs to change his game (difficult) or not get injured. They wisely let their good back-up go to the Bucs (which, I don’t know which decision was more inexplicable… the Buccaneers offering Rich Garcia $5M to “compete for the starting job” or the Eagles not using some of their $11M in cap space to keep him on board for McNabb’s inevitable injury. Now, the Eagles are looking forward to at least four starts by AJ Feeley or Kelly Holcomb. Most of their receivers have been in the league less than three seasons and they replaced Donte Stallworth with Kevin Curtis.
3) Filthy Redskins: Until they actually do something, I can’t take them seriously. The Redskins seem to go in to every season looking great on paper; Santana Moss and James Thrash are good receivers, Clinton Portis is a great back, Randel-El is a good return guy, their defense is serviceable… but they never perform. Last year, it looked as though Mark Brunell was heading toward one more great run, but that fizzled. This year, they’re listing Jason Campbell as their starting quarterback. He of the 76.5 QB Rating over 7 games last season. While I love all their offensive weapons, I don’t love the guy pulling the trigger.
4) The New York Football Giants: Tiki’s gone… while some Giant fans are petrified by this, I’m ecstatic. As much as the Giants supported him all through his career as a fumbling back, he’s found it necessary to take every opportunity to slam the organization and Tom Coughlin on the way out. Because, you know, Coughlin certainly didn’t fix any problems for Tiki….. like teaching him how to NOT fumble.
With one high-profile malcontent gone, public opinion has rapidly turned on high-profile holdout Michael Strahan. Strahan signed, at his request, a top loaded contract that paid him $9M/season at the beginning, with a signing bonus, and $4M/season toward the end. After his divorce paid Mrs. Strahan in the neighborhood of $18M, Mr. Strahan is holding out for more money. To the Giants’ credit, they seem completely unwilling to renegotiate with a 37-year-old who’s played two seasons worth of games in the last three. To the fans’ credit, they have not adopted the “just pay him” attitude that holdouts occasionally drum up for veteran players. After Strahan’s last season of talking a huge game and not really delivering, the fans seem ready to move on. Frankly, in a season where Coughlin has promised his locker room would not be a source of drama, I’d like to see Strahan gone. I’m guessing, as he just paid his ex-wife a boatload of money to go away, that he won’t be dismissing $4 million (or even $2 million, since he signed the contract while they were still married…. no clue how that works) so easily. Strahan will likely be back, and if he, Matthias Kiwanuka, and Osi Umenyiora can put together a healthy season… and some defensive backs can manage to go a season without getting hurt (UPDATE: In an almost comical if not so sad twist of fate, Safety Will Demps and Cornerback Sam Madison both got injured on the same play in the Giants’ pre-season game vs. the Ravens. Demps dislocated his elbow on a tackle and, at the same time on the other side of the field, Madison pulled the same hamstring that kept him out four weeks last season. The Giants’ crack training staff strikes again, keeping the guys nice and warmed up on a rainy, damp night. Good show, gentlemen) The Giants’, they have a chance for things to break right and play some good defense.
What gives me hope on offense is this: Tiki Barber was a strong personality on the offense. He was, by default, the leader. I’m hoping, with him out of the way, Eli will somehow manage to get the offense under him this year. Otherwise, I think this is as good a test of Bill Simmons’s Ewing Theory as any other team in the league. Tiki’s gone, they have a decent receiving core and a some good, speedy, young receivers who show a lot of promise. Michael Jennings is a guy who was cut last season but looked decent. Steve Smith and Sinorice Moss are promising. Added with newly returned (and well-dressed) Amani Toomer and a hopefully more mature set of Jeremy Shockey and Plaxico Burress, the receiving corps (UPDATE THE SECOND: In the same preseason game as mentioned above, Michael Jennings tore his Achilles after catching a 10-yard pass from Manning. He didn’t get hit… he just fell down with a ruptured Achilles. Fire them. All of them. Right the f*ck now. Steve Smith is also out for a while with a concussion. I can’t blame them on that one other than not teaching a rookie how to defend himself properly.) is promising.
Another piece: according to Mike Hulse: “by the end of last season, the Giants’ offensive line consisted of Diehl, Seubert, Dancer, Prancer, and Vixen. It can’t be worse.”. This is true. The Giants’ season went south in a hurry as their linemen started to fall. That, more than anything, is a huge reason they started the season 6-2 and ended it 2-6. The Giants’ re-assembled their line and everyone’s healthy again. If they can stay that way and keep Eli from firing 60-yard jump balls off his back foot, there’s a chance.
And the final thing that really gives me hope: their schedule. Last season the NFC East was far more difficult than it was this season and they went 4-2, beating the Eagles when they had McNabb and losing during Garcia’s Cinderella stretch. They came within an eyelash of sweeping the Cowboys. In the first four weeks they get Dallas on the road, Green Bay, at Washington, and Philadelphia. This gets two tough divisional road match-ups out of the way early while everyone is healthy. Secondly, they get Green Bay, a team that no one other than Favre apologists really take seriously, at home in week two.
The next four games are the Jets at home (giving the Jets an extra home game this season, which we’ll get to some other time), the traveling comedy troupe that will be on the field in Atlanta, A 49ers team that may or may not be good depending on who you pay attention to (and, too many teams are calling the Niners as the “dark horse team” meaning they’re certainly not going to be the “dark horse team”), and then they travel to London to play the Dolphins. The Dolphins are losing the home game, which means the Giants get a neutral site game in the regular season. This is followed by their bye week.
Back from the bye week they get Dallas, at Detroit, Minnesota, and at Chicago. Of those games, exactly one is a problem, and it isn’t the defending NFC Champions. While the Bears decisively beat the Giants last year, I don’t think Rex Grossman is going to be able to duplicate his inexplicable success of last year.
The last month of the season brings at Philly, Washington, at Buffalo, and they close the season against the Patriots. The Giants will likely be playing a home game in Buffalo. The Bills have been applying blackouts to their local market for the last two seasons. There are also armies of Giants’ fans upstate. It’s very likely that Ralph Wilson Stadium is going to be sporting 75% Giants’ fans by the end of December. Then, they close the season against a Patriots team that will probably have had home field advantage locked up since early December. While that game doesn’t thrill me, I have the hope that no starters will be playing in it.
So, giving them the same divisional 4-2 as last season (which I think is reasonable… they should be able to steal at least one of those games on the road) and applying the should win, might win, and probably lose formula:
Should Win: Packers, Lions, Vikings, Bills, Falcons
Might Win: Jets, Chicago, Dolphins, Niners
Probably Lose: Patriots
They skip ALL the elite teams except one. The Colts, Ravens, Saints, and Chargers are nowhere to be found. If I give them 4-1 in should wins, 2-2 in might wins, and 0-1 in probably loses… I come up with a 10-6 season… an almost certain wildcard berth in the NFC.
Yes, I’m almost certainly looking at all of this through rose-colored glasses. Yes, I’m ignoring the injury bug that’s infected the Giants for the last two seasons. Yes, I’m assuming the Redskins will have a Redskins-esque season. Yes, I’m assuming that the Giants can break their irritating habit of playing down to their competition. Yes, I’m assuming that Eli Manning will be, at the very least, as serviceable as he’s been the last two seasons. Unlike other writers, I’m not writing the season off as long as Eli’s the quarterback. At the end of the day the Coughlin/Manning duo are 2/2 in getting to the post-season.
But, I’ve talked myself into being excited for football season again… and really, in August, isn’t that what matters?
