INSIDE FIGHTS: UFC 74 Roundtable
Welcome to our roundtable about tonight’s card, UFC 74: Respect. As usual, our panel of pundits are myself, the ultra-versatile Kevin Wong, our boxing guru, Mr. Trent Pusey, and in a real treat, our DVD-reviewing rock star from across the pond, Scott Newman. Enough with the introductions–on with the picks!
UFC Heavyweight Championship: Randy ‘The Natural’ Couture vs. Gabriel ‘Napao’ Gonzaga
Mike: Sam Sheridan was spot on when he called Randy the smartest fighter in the world, but even he may be in a little over his head here. If you’re Randy and you’re gameplanning for Gonzaga’s weaknesses, you’re going to have to look hard, because there isn’t a whole lot to work with there. For the first time in a very long time, Randy’ll be going up against someone who’ll actively be looking to put him on his back and work him over, and Gonzaga’s strong and quick enough to make that happen.
Insane head kicks aside, Randy does have a slight advantage in striking, but it’s a bad sign for him when his best chance to win a fight involves keeping his opponent upright at all costs. Unlike Tim Sylvia, Gonzaga has the potential to be a very aggressive fighter, and I don’t see Randy being able to fend him off for five rounds. Lord knows that I (and all of the other self-appointed ‘experts’) have made the mistake of writing Randy off before, but Gonzaga’s the most well-rounded opponent that he’s fought in years. I hope that I’m wrong again on this, but I have a feeling that the fairytale ends here. Gonzaga by decision.
Scott: I’ve already done a more detailed breakdown of this fight and you can find that elsewhere on Inside Fights, so I’m not going to go over all of it again. My basic feeling is this: if this fight ends before the fourth round, then we will have a new UFC Heavyweight Champion. On paper Gabriel Gonzaga is simply too large, too skilled, and too powerful for Randy Couture to beat. But that’d be doubting Randy Couture, which we have learned time and time again in the past is a huge mistake to make.
Couture’s wrestling game is second to none, and even at the advanced age of 44, I have a feeling his cardio will be tough for ‘Napao’ to match. If Couture can drag the fight out into the later rounds and sap Gonzaga’s gas tank, there is a chance that he can hang onto his title. Gonzaga also hasn’t been put in a bad position thus far in his UFC career, and it’s a question mark as to how he will respond on his back with Couture shoving elbows into his face. With that said though, historically Couture’s problem has always been larger grapplers who can put him on his back and beat on him from there (Barnett, Rodriguez). Gonzaga fits that bill and at this point I think he has too much for Couture to handle. I see Gonzaga taking Couture down and pounding him en route to a stoppage or more likely a submission. Gonzaga, submission, R2
Trent: Couture predicted the Gonzaga upset over Cro Cop and still seems genuinely infatuated with the man. Who am I to disagree with him? Couture produced the greatest moment of the year with his Heavyweight Title win over Tim Sylvia but the fairy tale ends in Las Vegas. Gonzaga is younger and bigger than ‘The Natural,’ which Couture is used to, but Napao seems to lack the overall oafish style that Sylvia possesses. Gonzaga by TKO, R3.
Wong: At UFC 68, Couture captured the heavyweight title by coming up with a sound strategy and smacking Tim Sylvia around, exposing every flaw in the big man’s game in the process. His reward is to take on a 28-year old monster named Gabriel Gonzaga, whose national television debut resulted in a huge KO of Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic. But don’t think that the KO was luck – Gonzaga dominated the former PRIDE Grand Prix champion from the get-go. This guy has some great all around skills, finishing his opponents in all of his victories in a variety of ways. Even Couture admitted during the Gonzaga-Cro Cop fight that he had no immediate answer as to how to fight the man, and coming from Couture, that’s a huge compliment.
Of course, that was in April. With 4 months to prepare, there’s no doubt in my mind that Couture has a plan to beat Gonzaga. I can’t say for certain what that might be, but I’m pretty sure that it involves wearing down the Brazilian and then going for a stoppage in the championship rounds. The key, of course, is getting there, but Gonzaga has only gone to the third round twice, so as the fight goes on, Randy might be able to get into Gonzaga’s head. Can Randy pull another one out? Gonzaga, TKO R2.
Josh Koscheck vs. Georges St. Pierre :
Scott N.: For me, this fight boils down to one thing: has St. Pierre mentally recovered from the loss to Matt Serra? If he has I think Koscheck is in for a rude awakening on Saturday night. Not only is St. Pierre the first man to step into Koscheck’s path with equal athletic ability, but he’s also laid waste to every top wrestler-cum-MMArtist that he’s faced thus far. Nobody has run through Trigg, Sherk and Hughes in the way that GSP has. On paper Koscheck might be a better wrestler than all three, but despite this, I question if he’s truly developed his game in the way that a Matt Hughes has. And while Koscheck’s wrestling is likely the best in the welterweight division, I question his ability from his back. If anyone can put Koscheck on his back, it’s Georges St. Pierre, a man who I’d consider pound-for-pound perhaps the physically strongest in MMA.
Unless St. Pierre is truly rattled by the Serra loss and comes in completely gun-shy, I just don’t see Josh Koscheck being able to beat him. Koscheck may be able to take St. Pierre down, but I wonder whether he can actually do anything with the position if he does. And that’s if he’s even able to do so. Sherk, Trigg and Hughes never came close, and despite Koscheck’s wrestling ability St. Pierre has some of the best takedown defense in the game. On the feet Koscheck’s striking has definitely improved, but I don’t think he’s quite on the level of GSP yet. And if GSP takes Koscheck down, then he may find himself in serious difficulty. Honestly if St. Pierre hadn’t lost to Serra in the fashion that he had, this may have been a title fight, and erasing the Serra loss I don’t think anyone would be questioning ‘Rush’ in the way they are. Those doubters will be put to sleep on Saturday. St. Pierre, submission, R2.
Trent: Please let this be a one-sided bloody beating for 15 minutes. I don’t ask for much. Just a thorough beating of Josh Koscheck. I know these things are about predicting what you think will happen, not what you want to happen, but this is where I choose to make my desires known. Deal with it. GSP by unanimous decision, leaving Koscheck a disfigured mess.
Wong: GSP has managed to f*ck up almost every wrestler-turned-mixed martial artist since he started fighting, and the list includes Matt Hughes, Sean Sherk, Frank Trigg and Jay Hieron. So can he add Josh Koscheck to the list? Koscheck has arguably the best shot in the UFC welterweight division, but despite that, he still lacks the skill to properly finish opponents on the ground. His striking has improved, but he tends to be more defensive with it, and uses the strikes to set up the takedown. Some might see that as a gap that he should probably work on, but really, Koscheck is never going to be a world class striker, and he’s better off Sherking his way to victory.
I think that the big hole in Koscheck’s game is that he can’t or won’t change his strategy if the situation warrants it. In the fight with Diego Sanchez, it became obvious that something was wrong since Diego didn’t do his usual relentless attacking. Josh probably could’ve went in and landed some heavy strikes or hit some takedowns, but he was content to step back and paw away at Diego until the fight ended. I think there were more strikes landed when Gretzky fought Neal Broten (granted, it was Broten doing all the punching, but still). Then again, there were probably more strikes landed when Batman fought Guy Gardner (Note: if you don’t get that reference, please head over to the Nexus and ask Mathan).
As for St. Pierre, I think the big question is his mental toughness. His loss to Matt Serra was the second time he’d fought an undersized BJJ fighter and getting beat in the striking game. Even the biggest GSP fan would have to concede that B.J. Penn owned him in the first round, and if not for Penn himself having a mental lapse, GSP would’ve lost and we could’ve been talking about the French-Canadian in “what if” terms. We know that Georges has got the skills to defend against wrestlers and their primary weapon – the takedown, so if GSP has recovered mentally from the TKO loss to Serra, I would not want to be in Josh Koscheck’s boardshorts. GSP, TKO R1.
Mike: You know, I remember reading a message board thread just before UFC 69 that was titled, “Georges St. Pierre Will Be The Greatest Welterweight Champ Ever and Retire With The Belt.†And hey, it could still come true, I guess, but the earth is still shaking from the force of literally everyone jumping off the GSP bandwagon at once. Of course, the UFC’s 170-pound division is a pitiless master, and so St. Pierre’s first match back after being on the business end of the biggest upset in UFC history is against the very driven Josh Koscheck.
Love him or hate him, you have to admit that Koscheck’s very effective. Yes, St. Pierre dominated Sean Sherk, Frank Trigg, and Matt Hughes, but Trigg and Hughes made the mistake of trying to stand and trade with St. Pierre, and I don’t think that Koscheck’s going to get sucked into that. Koscheck’s bigger than Sherk, faster than Hughes, and more relentless than both. I think that he’ll be able to get St. Pierre off his feet and hold him down, and that’s what he’ll need to do to win the fight. Do I think he’ll be able to finish St. Pierre off? No, but like the Sanchez fight, Koscheck should be able to do just enough to win. Koscheck by decision.
Patrick Cote vs. Kendall Grove
Mike: After his fight with Scott Smith, I’m amazed that the UFC decided to bring Cote back, but here he is. I expect Grove to pull a Travis Lutter and get Cote down as quickly as possible; still, you have to imagine that Cote might have actually learned something from that fight, so I’m taking Kendall by ground-and-pound. Grove, TKO R2.
Scott: The improvement in Kendall Grove in the last year or so has been quite the thing to behold. I think Grove surprised everyone with his performance on TUF, especially in beating Kalib Starnes and Ed Herman, but for me the real eye-opener was Grove’s destruction of Alan Belcher back in April. Finally making use of his freakish reach, Grove took apart Belcher in a way I certainly hadn’t envisioned. On paper, he’s got far too much for the scrappy Cote: better cardio, better ground skill, and a longer reach despite probably having the disadvantage standing. That said, after seeing him knocked silly by Joe Riggs and Hector Ramirez, I question Kendall’s chin. If Cote can somehow get inside of the reach, he’s definitely got the striking power to test Grove’s beard and if that happens we could see an upset. But most likely Grove’s torrid pace will wear Cote out en route to a decision loss or late stoppage, so I’m taking the former. Grove by decision.
Trent: Cote hasn’t done much to impress anyone recently. Grove still looks like he has potential, but how long is his growth process going to take? The UFC continues to bring Grove along slowly, but he ought to submit Cote at some point in the second round.
Wong: Patrick Cote won a fight in TKO to get back to the UFC, and his reward is 6’6″ TUF3 winner Kendall Grove. Lucky guy. “The Predator” is known primarily for his standup, although he does have some ability on the ground. Despite the reach advantage, Grove will need to be careful against a guy who went the distance against Tito Ortiz and Chris Leben. Still, this is a very winnable match for Grove, who should be able to take Cote down and slap on a submission. He won’t make it look as easy as, say, Travis Lutter did, but I’d be very surprised if the Hawaiian doesn’t walk away with a victory. Grove, submission R2.
Kurt Pellegrino vs. Joe Stevenson
Wong: Interesting matchup here. I’m not the biggest fan of Pellegrino, but he’s been very impressive so far in his MMA career. Eight of his ten wins have been via tapout, so the Armory fighter is going to be a tough competitor on the ground. Stevenson, meanwhile, has been very tough since moving to the lightweight division, his last two wins have been quick, a byproduct of Joe’s opponents making a dumb mistake and Joe taking full advantage of it. With that said, I think that Joe is vulnerable if you can get out of the first round (but don’t tell Yves Edwards that). Despite his experience, he’s still a young guy and as seen in the Neer and Cummo fights, he can get a little too aggressive and gas himself out, and if Pellegrino weathers the storm, he could pull out a submission victory. Stevenson, TKO R1.
Trent: This ought to be quite the grappling match. Stevenson’s a big lightweight and has the strength advantage, but Pellegrino is sneaky with technique and I think he will surprise Stevenson. Pellegrino by submission R3 in the best fight of the night.
Mike: Stevenson made a lot of new fans–myself included–both during and after his fight with Melvin Guillard. Since moving down to lightweight, he’s eviscerated the competition, and he’s still evolving as a fighter: before getting the tap with a picture-perfect guillotine (and probably a nasty little trachea choke at the end), he gave Melvin the business on his feet.
I don’t really get that ambitious vibe from Pellegrino: maybe it was the whole “Hermes will win the belt, I’ll get the number one contender spot, and we’ll hold them both forever†speech that he gave at the last Fight Night, but I don’t think he’s as motivated as Stevenson here, and it’ll show. If Stevenson wins this one, he’ll get that title shot; with that in mind, start figuring out who it’s going to be against. Stevenson by submission, R1.
Scott: With the steroid saga surrounding Sean Sherk, this fight suddenly takes on new meaning as Stevenson is likely one win away from a title opportunity, while Pellegrino, if he should knock off ‘Joe Daddy’, would be equally as close to the coveted belt. This is an interesting fight as both men are almost mirror images of each other – strong wrestling-based fighters who’ve become more skilled in the submission department. Overall, it’s a close one to call, but I give the advantage to Stevenson based on his experience. Stevenson’s been in with the likes of Yves Edwards, Mishima, and Josh Neer in his UFC career alone. That isn’t mentioning fighting the likes of Jens Pulver while still in his teens. Pellegrino is good, but I think Stevenson is a tad better and it’ll show early on. Stevenson, submission, R1.
Frank Mir vs. Antoni Hardonk:
Mike: The last Mir fight that I watched in great detail was his championship win over Tim Sylvia, and for the life of me, I can’t get that fight out of my head. If Mir is 1/50th of the fighter that he was on that day, he should have Hardonk–who made Justin McCully look like Randy Couture–screaming like a little girl by the end of the first round. Mir, submission R1.
Scott: When this was originally scheduled for April, I would’ve picked Hardonk to dismantle Mir without hesitation. I didn’t think Mir was all that *before* the infamous motorcycle accident, and after it he’s looked utterly atrocious, to be quite frank–even in his “win†over Dan Christison. But Hardonk looked so lost on the ground against Justin McCully that I’m being forced to rethink here. If Mir can get Hardonk to the ground he’s got the chance to put the big Dutchman away, but as always with Mir, if he’s going to win it’ll have to be early on. I’m not convinced Hardonk can survive on the ground with Mir, but equally I’m not convinced that Mir has anything left whatsoever. I’ll go with my gut feeling here. Sorry, Frank. Hardonk, KO, R1
Trent: HA! Mir by TKO R1.
Kevin: You know what? Frank Mir is a great colour commentator. Can he still fight? That’s what this fight (originally scheduled for last April) will tell us.
Hardonk has an impressive training pedigree, having been trained in kickboxing by Ernesto Hoost, and Jiu-Jitsu by Rickson Gracie. That kickboxing skill was very apparent when he chopped down Sherman Pendergarst by KO due to leg kicks. However, he ended up on the losing side of his next fight (the one where Hardonk and Mir were supposed to fight), as Justin McCully managed to neutralize the Dutchman’s strengths en route to a unanimous decision win.
Mir, of course, hasn’t been the same fighter since his motorcycle accident in 2004. He’s lost 2 of 3 fights since then, the win coming against journeyman Dan Christison. He actually looked in good shape against Brandon Vera, but still lost in under 90 seconds. If he can beat Hardonk, then he may still have a chance to salvage his career. If he can’t… well, he’s still a great colour commentator. Mir, submission R2.
Renato ‘Babalu’ Sobral vs. David Heath:
Scott: I’ll be short here. Heath had his shot to step up to the elite level at 205 lbs. at UFC 70, and he failed in a low-key performance against Lyoto Machida. He’s being given a second chance here against Babalu, who himself needs to prove that he belongs in the upper echelon after suffering a surprising loss at the hands of Jason Lambert. I have heard Babalu was extremely sick heading into the Lambert fight, and as a fan of the Brazilian I’m inclined to believe it – that just wasn’t the ‘real’ Babalu in there. As long as Sobral can keep his emotions in check and not get too wild here, this should be his fight. Sobral is simply on a different level to Heath, in my opinion. Sobral, submission, R1.
Wong: The last year hasn’t been a lot of fun for Babalu. First he was stopped in the first round in his title fight with Chuck Liddell, and then he got knocked out by Jason Lambert in March. The last time I heard anything about Babalu, he was arrested for battery and trespassing at an Indian Casino and we got this:
Needless to say, Sobral needs to win this fight against Heath, otherwise we’ll see him fighting in the Bodog ring or the EliteXC random venue of the month. Well, that or we’ll see him on The Smoking Gun. If Babalu is mentally ready for this, then he should win, but if he’s not… see ya.
Ironically, Heath made his UFC debut on the undercard of that Liddell/Sobral fight. He’s done pretty well for himself, and I was hoping we’d get a look at him back in Manchester, but there was that problem of facing perhaps the most boring fighter in the UFC, Lyoto Machida, so the fight was taken out of the Spike TV broadcast. So really, I still don’t know what to expect from Heath. But I think desperation should probably carry Babalu on this day. Sobral, submission R2.
Mike: Babalu’s actually crazy? Geez, you’d never guess by looking at the guy. It’s been a long freefall down the roster for Sobral–from Chuck Liddell to Jason Lambert to Heath–and with the absurd amount of talent calling the 205-pound division home, a loss here would probably mean the end of his UFC career.
Heath’s definitely got talent: his loss to Lyoto ‘Human Blanket’ Machida isn’t really indicative of his skill, since Machida has the singular ability to drag a boring fight out of just about anyone. Personally, I think he’s in a little over his head here, but then again, I thought the same about Jason Lambert. Heath looks like he’s carrying around some–ahem–extra heft, so dropping down to 185 a la Terry Martin might be a good career move. He’s certainly good enough to win the fight, but I don’t see him being able to pull it off against someone with Babalu’s pedigree, particularly with Babalu’s livelihood at stake. Babalu, submission R2.
Trent: Babalu needs a win and I’d love to see him get it. Three losses in a row doesn’t bode well for a future with the UFC. Heath doesn’t have the power to KO Babalu so he will instead be stretched. Babalu by submission, R1.
Marcus Aurelio vs. Clay Guida
Scott: People have been saying that this fight belongs on the main card, and they’d be correct. One of PRIDE’s top Lightweights against a guy seemingly incapable of having a bad fight? And it’s a prelim? Regardless, I think we’ve already seen this fight once before, and that was in the form of Aurelio’s clash in PRIDE with Mitsuhiro Ishida. Ishida, with his relentless takedowns and ground-and-pound, is basically a Japanese version of Guida. Aurelio simply had no answer for Ishida’s game in that fight; as long as Guida doesn’t get too wild from the top, I think he has enough to control ‘Maximus’ and pound out a decision. We know he won’t gas, that’s for sure. More interesting to me is if Guida should win, what will happen to the rankings at lightweight when it’s finally proven that PRIDE’s crop of talent isn’t all that better than the UFC’s? Guida, decision.
Mike: Frankly, I’m hoping that someone on the main card loses badly just so I can see this fight. Guida’s got so much karma built up from losing flip-a-coin decisions to Tyson Griffin and Din Thomas that I’m completely expecting him to pull off upset here. From all accounts, Aurelio’s topnotch, but Guida can go five rounds at a hundred miles an hour, and that’s not really the kind of opponent that anyone a.) coming off a long layoff and b.) making their UFC debut should have to face. Guida by decision.
Trent: Both lightweights have tons of experience. Guida has lost two in a row to solid fighters but Aurelio has PRIDE experience and that rules all. Plus, Aurelio’s nickname of ‘Maximus’ is about ten times better than ‘The Carpenter.’ Aurelio by split decision.
Wong: Win or lose, you can always count on Clay Guida to have an exciting fight. His recent W-L record is not particularly stellar, but considering that those recent losses were to Tyson Griffin (decision), Din Thomas (decision), Yusuke Endo (tapout) and Gilbert Melendez (decision), it’s nothing to be ashamed about. Now, he’s taking on a guy who has a submission win over Takanori Gomi on his CV, Marcus Aurelio. Aurelio hasn’t fought since November 2006, no doubt because of the whole issue surrounding the PRIDE buyout, and hasn’t fought in a cage in four years. I think that as good as his credentials are, Octagon shock could overcome Aurelio. Guida, Decision.
Alberto Crane vs Roger Huerta:
Wong: Roger Huerta seems to be making a habit of facing newcomers to the UFC. His last fight against unheralded Doug Evans nearly ended in a loss, so you figure that he’s not going to take Crane lightly. Crane has a perfect 8-0 record (7 by submission), has a black belt in BJJ, and is a former KotC lightweight champion. But perhaps to Crane’s detriment, his last pro fight was in January 2005, which means that conditioning could play a factor here. I could say that Crane is looking to end this early, but if we’re being honest, most fighters are looking to end fights early. I look for Huerta to again absorb whatever Crane throws at him early, and take over from the start of round 2. Huerta, TKO R2.
Scott: Huerta seems to be experiencing a strange online backlash due to the supposed baby treatment he’s receiving from UFC, and I guess you could say that; after all, Crane is the fifth UFC debutant in a row that Huerta will be facing. But who cares about that sort of thing, sez I, when Huerta continues to put on exciting fights? Just watch and enjoy. This one’s interesting as Crane certainly has the ground skill to give Huerta problems in that department, especially if Roger maintains the wild, open style that’s brought him success thus far. However, it’s been over two and a half years since Crane’s last fight, while this is Huerta’s fourth fight of 2007. Ring rust could prove to be a factor, especially with a cardio machine like Huerta. I expect Crane to last the distance simply because Huerta’s not naturally a striker and it’s hard for a ground-and-pound based guy to put such an experienced grappler away, but overall El Matador should have enough to pull this one out. Huerta, decision.
Trent: Every UFC card has a handful of guys I’ve never heard of. Surprisingly this card doesn’t have many but one just happens to be a Mr. Alberto Crane. If his first name was Ichabod I would happily look past my unfamiliarity with him and give him the nod. Since I don’t know who he is and his first name isn’t what I want it to be, I’m going to pick Huerta in this one. Huerta by TKO R1.
Ryan Jensen vs. Thales Leites:
Mike: Leites’ submission game is pretty slick, but he’s got holes in his game against fighters with solid standup and ground-and-pound skills. Luckily for him, Ryan Jensen has neither, so he should be fine; besides, Internet Logic clearly states that any somewhat obscure Brazilian fighter should be able to wipe the floor with any somewhat obscure Midwestern fighter six days a week and twice on Sundays. Leites by submission, R2.
Wong: I had this great little mini-rant about Travis Lutter, but then he had to go and pull out of the fight, so I’m left to talk about Thales Leites instead. Leites’ most recent victory was over “Who the $#!+ is” Floyd Sword (tm Trent), and his only loss was to Martin Kampmann. Jensen’s record shows only one blemish, a quick loss to WEC middleweight contender Brock Larson. His stated preference is to keep the fight standing even though the majority of his victories have come via chokes. I don’t think Leites’ jiu-jitsu is as good as Lutter’s (unless there’s some unwritten rule about Brazilians having the best jiu-jitsu), but even so, I think it’s probably good enough to add another blemish to Jensen’s record. Leites, Submission R1.
Scott N.: In the best replacement for an injury since, erm, Yushin Okami took Martin Kampmann’s spot at UFC 72, we’ve got the hugely talented, exciting Leites taking the spot of the dull-as-dishwater Travis Lutter. I’m not sure why Zuffa planned to bring Lutter back after the weight cutting debacle at UFC 67, but regardless, Ryan Jensen has stepped out of the frying pan and into a much hotter fire by ending up facing the far more talented Leites. A better striker than Lutter, I would also rate Leites’ submission game as better than the Texan. I’m sure Jensen deserves a shot at UFC glory, but he’s simply way out of his league here. Leites will submit him early, and continue to move up the ladder, hopefully putting together a title challenge in 2008. Leites, submission, R1.
Trent: Let me introduce you to fighter #2 that I haven’t heard of: Ryan Jensen. It seems impossible to not know who Thales Leites is as it seems he fights every other weekend. No ring rust on Leites means trouble for the great unknown. Leites by unanimous decision.
