Inside Fights Roundtable: UFC 78: Validation

Previews

Welcome to Inside Fights’ roundtable for UFC 78: Validation. Feel free to take our picks as advice, but don’t blame us if Vegas doesn’t count “but Inside Fights said he’d win” as an excuse for a refund. Our contributors this week:

Trent Pusey: Inside Fights editor and boxing aficionado.

Kevin Wong: New daddy and jack-of-all-trades at Inside Pulse.

Mike Nichols: Inside Fights contribuing writer and DVD reviewer.

You don’t really care too much about who we are, though; all you want to know is who we’re picking. So without further ado:

Michael Bisping vs. Rashad Evans:

Mike: See, I like Bisping, but I don’t see what everyone else sees in him: Eric Schafer took him down at will, Elvis Sinosic nearly made him submit twice, and if his last fight was anywhere other than in London, England, Matt Hamill would have won it. Ladies and gentlemen, your future light-heavyweight champion: Michael Bisping!.

By comparison, Rashad Evans mauled the very underrated Jason Lambert, nearly kicked Sean Salmon’s head off, and would’ve mauled Tito if he hadn’t waited until the last three minutes of the fight to actually take the fight to Tito. And therein lies the rub: Rashad has been known to, shall we say, take his foot off the gas in some of his fights, and against a guy with Bisping’s striking power, a lapse in concentration can lead to very bad things for Evans. Then again, Evans’s standup is a lot farther along than Matt Hamill’s, and his wrestling/ground game is just as good, so Bisping could be the guy that’s in for a long evening.

On any other card, this would be a very intriguing undercard fight, which is the whole problem with UFC 78: it feels like an awesome undercard in need of a big-name main event to top it off perfectly. Of course, we’re not going to get one, which leaves me handicapping this. So here’s what I think: Bisping has shown me nothing–nothing–to make me believe that he can truly excel at anything other than beating up Ross Pointon, and while Rashad screwed the pooch big-time against Tito, at least he’s fought and beaten better guys in trying to get his title shot. It won’t be the lay-and-pray worst-case scenario that some people are predicting, but Rashad is just going to be too much for “The Count.” Only one of these guys is going to walk out of this fight undefeated, and it isn’t going to be Bisping. Evans, decision.

Trent: I won’t even try to get into any validation for this as a main event. I’m a fan of The Ultimate Fighter and I still couldn’t care less about this fight. I guess it’s nifty to see two season winners face each other but it feels more suited for a TUF Finale or Ultimate Fight Night. The fight itself ought to be less than spectacular as well. Bisping hasn’t looked like a future champion in any of his wins while Evans has only looked marginally better. Being marginally better means that Evans should win a split decision. Evans, decision.

Kevin: The Count has a huge chip on his shoulder and can probably use that as motivation against Rashad, but I don’t see that as being enough. Matt Hamill may have wanted to keep the fight standing, but I guarantee that Evans will go for the takedown here – I don’t think I’ve seen anyone who has been able to stop Rashad if he wants to put the fight on the ground. Also working in Rashad’s favour is the presence of one Georges St. Pierre on Team Jackson. GSP has a wealth of knowledge and a guy like Evans would be wise to absorb every ounce that he can get from the French-Canadian.

Anyway, back to Bisping. I still really like the guy, but matched up against a guy like Hamill he looked really small; not only that, but he got outwitted when he expected takedowns and Hamill stayed vertical and threw down. Against Rashad he’ll look smaller, and the only way he can win is if he slaps on a submission – something that I haven’t seen anyone come close to getting on Evans – although to be fair if a guy was laying and praying it’s a bit tough to do that. Hopefully it won’t come down to that, and we’ll get a solid fight from these two. Look for Bisping to finally drop to 185 which could really use some name power.

Thiago Silva vs. Houston Alexander:

Mike: This fight shouldn’t take long one way or the other. Alexander beat Keith Jardine in under a minute and Alessio Sakara in less than 30 seconds, and Silva’s an 11-0 Chute Boxe fighter with all of his wins coming by KO or TKO, so something’s got to give. Usually, I’d say that Internet logic dictates that any somewhat obscure Brazilian fighter could beat any somewhat obscure Midwestern fighter six days a week and twice on Sunday, but I’ll forego that here, because I don’t expect Houston to be obscure for much longer.

Silva looks promising, but–as Scott (or someone) pointed out in one of his reviews–punching Alexander doesn’t seem to hurt him, but it sure does make him angry. And like the Hulk, the madder Houston gets, the stronger Houston gets. I think that Silva definitely has a future in the UFC, win or lose, but enough about him: is Alexander the second coming of Chuck Liddell? Or is he more like the second coming of Phil Baroni? This fight will go a long way toward figuring that out. Alexander, KO R1.

Trent: Houston Alexander hasn’t fought enough for me to think he’s the next Iceman. Plus he’s 35. Silva is younger and just as dangerous. And his last name is Silva. That makes him more badass than an Alexander. I’m guessing the fight won’t go over two minutes no matter the winner as both guys like to be aggressive. Alexander’s brief glimmer will be extinguished by Thiago Silva by KO. Silva, KO R1.

Kevin: Let’s be honest here – we still don’t know much about Houston Alexander aside from the fact that he’s got some heavy, heavy hands. Yes, he obliterated Keith Jardine and Alessio Sakara, but those fights were over so quick that we didn’t really learn what he can and cannot do. I’ve got mad respect for the guy’s standup game, but remember this – the Houston Texans started the 2007 season 2-0, and now they’re bottom feeders in the (stacked) AFC South.

Silva’s star is on the rise, and a win over Alexander would be huge, but the question really is if he can survive the first two minutes or so of the fight. If he does, the Brazilian has a very good shot of winning. If he doesn’t… well, duh. Alexander, TKO R1.

Karo Parisyan vs. Ryo Chonan:

Kevin: I think there are a few constants for fighters at 170. One is that Shonie Carter will try a spinning backfist. Another is that Matt Hughes is a dick. And the third is that Karo will try and throw you, because his judo is just That Damn Good. Never mind that Chonan is coming down from 185, I’m pretty sure that Karo could throw Big Fat Tim with no trouble if he wanted to. Chonan’s strategy here should probably be to take Karo down and keep him there, but that might be easier said than done, as Parisyan has shown an ability to get back up very quickly. Also of note is the fact that Ryo hasn’t fought professionally in a cage, so Octagon shock is a definite possibility here. Look for “The Heat” to wear down Chonan and get a late stoppage. Parisyan, submission R3.

Trent: Karo is one of my favorite fighters to watch. Like the previous fight, Karo shouldn’t have a lot of trouble with his opponent. Granted, Chonan is the last man to defeat Anderson Silva, but Karo’s judo is strong. If Karo loses then I quit MMA. This will mark the second time I have done this with Shogun’s loss generating my first leave of absence. Parisyan, decision.

Mike: Here we have Karo ‘Don’t You Know Who I Am, Bro?’ Parisyan against the last man to make Anderson Silva look bad, Ryo Chonan. For me, watching Karo fight has always been like watching a kid pull the wings off a fly: he’s usually so much stronger than his opponent in clinch and grappling situations that it’s almost like he’s toying with whomever he’s in there with. With the exception of Diego Sanchez, he’s been able to make his opponents fight his kind of fight, and that in and of itself is a real accomplishment.

Still, it may not do him a whole lot of good against Chonan, who’s learned the secret to competing in the UFC that so many of his PRIDE colleagues ignored when coming into the promotion (here’s a hint: everyone here fights one weight class below where they probably ought to be) and dropped down to welterweight. With his own strength and submission skills, he’s not exactly going to be out of his element on the ground, and he’s been training stateside with Team Quest, so he’ll be ready to fight in the cage. Karo’s had problems with finishing guys at the top level, and if you give a fighter like Chonan three rounds to figure you out, odds are pretty good that he will. Karo won’t tap (he’s Armenian, bro) but Chonan might just rip something off. Chonan, submission R3.

Joe Doerksen vs. Ed Herman:

Trent: Three fights in now and I still don’t really care about UFC 78. I like Ed Herman but not enough to watch him fight Joe Doerksen, who loses to everyone. Ed Herman shouldn’t have too much trouble wih him and really needs to continue his win streak after his setback to Jason MacDonald. There is no other way for Herman to finish a fight than by submission, so I’m taking Herman by tapout. Herman, submission R2.

Kevin: “El Dirte” is a journeyman, but he’s one tough journeyman who can never be counted out in a fight. His CV includes fights against several big names in MMA, although no recent wins against them. He did beat a young Ed Herman in 2004, so he has that going for him. By that token, Marvin Eastman had a win against a young Rampage Jackson going for him. Bottom line – it means nothing now. Looking at Herman, I haven’t really been impressed with him since his fight with Grove, but a win here will probably mean I’ll have to reevaluate my opinion. This will be a close fight, and as always, if it’s close, I’m rooting for the Canadian – and in this case, is it too much to hope that the Winnipeger comes out to The Guess Who? Doerksen, decision.

Mike: This one came to pass when David Terrell pulled out of his third fight in a row with injury problems, so Doerksen stepped in to fill the void. And let me tell you, I love Joe Doerksen: he’s a tough, skilled fighter who’s won a hell of a lot of fights. He’s certainly fought his fair share of top guys, like Matt Lindland, Paulo Filho, and Nate Marquardt; then again, he’s also certainly lost to his fair share of top guys, like Matt Lindland, Paulo Filho, and Nate Marquardt. Yeah, he lost those fights, but there were points in all of them where he could have legitimately put a lesser opponent away. In short, Joe’s the perfect definition of a gatekeeper: he’s good enough to beat you if you have an off day, but not quite championship-level talent. If you beat him, you might have a future in this here mixed martial arts thing.

Which brings us to good old Ed Herman: fresh from his fight-of-the-year battle against Kendall Grove, Ed walked right into a bear trap in the form of the somewhat unheralded Jason MacDonald, and the rest is history. Six months later, MacDonald’s co-headlining a card against none other than Rich Franklin, while Ed’s fighting Chris Price on Ultimate Fight Night. Still, he’s rebounded pretty well by completely dominating both Price and Scott Smith, but with no obvious weaknesses and a very strong chin, Doerksen’s the kind of fighter that can throw a monkey wrench into any up-and-coming fighter’s career. Look for Ed to come out and fight as if his career depends on it, because frankly, it does. Herman, decision.

Frank Edgar vs. Spencer Fisher:

Kevin: People are already giving this FotN honours, and for good reason – both guys are typical of the lightweights in that they always give 100% and give us an entertaining fight. Edgar is undefeated, and Fisher is the cagey veteran. Logic dictates that Fisher will find a way to win based on his training at MFS, but I keep thinking back to how Edgar did against Tyson Griffin, and I think that if this gets to the ground, Fisher is done. Edgar, TKO R2

Mike: Hot damn! Now this is a fight that I’m beyond excited to see. Anyone who’s ever seen Fisher fight knows that it’s impossible for him to be boring in there, and anyone who sat through UFC 67 to get the silver lining of Edgar’s fight against Tyson Griffin knows that Edgar’s every bit as relentless himself. As stupid as it sounds, I think the key to this matchup lies in who has the better weak spot: is Fisher’s grappling better than Edgar’s striking? I’m leaning toward yes.

Edgar had some decent moments on his feet against Griffin, but he’s going to end up swallowing teeth if he spends too much time upright with Fisher, whose Muay Thai is probably even better now than it was in his second fight with Sam Stout. Fisher’s going to spend some time on his back in this one; against Edgar, that much is a given. But he’s got more than a few submission wins under his belt, and as a bigger lightweight with excellent wrestling skills, he won’t let anyone muscle him around. Look for Edgar to come out with shot after shot, but look for Fisher to finish with ground-and-pound late in the fight. Fisher, TKO R3.

Trent: This will be a fun lightweight contest and the only reason I would even consider watching UFC 78. After brief consideration, I have decided that this fight is not enough reason for me to waste my Saturday night. Edgar is a nice wrestler but Fisher always seems to know how to win in the end. Fisher, TKO R2.