21) How many days into the season until Mariano Rivera blows a save that kicks off ESPN’s first “has Mariano Rivera lost it” story.
Mike Hulse: 7, no more, no less. ESPN loves this story. It’s also a waste of time. If you’d like to know what Mo’s gonna do, here it is: Mo will blow 3 saves in April, and then quietly run off 34 consecutive saves where’s he’s got a WHIP of like .053 and nobody will say a word because that’s what he does. This has happened for like, 4 running years. I see no reason for it to change.
Chad Jorgenson: I’m surprised they’re not running that story already. I’m sure it’s in the queue ready to go up. So lets see, season starts the 31st…so April 3rd is my over under line.
Eugene Tierney: He’ll blow 3 saves in the first 2 weeks and “Mariano-gate” will start again. Everyone knows he starts out slowly.
Aaron Cameron: One. And, as luck would have it, the Yanks open at home against the Blue Jays, who’ve become something of boutique pick to be a contender this year. Will ESPN bless us with a daily double of “Rivera’s lost it” and “Toronto is FOR REAL!” with 161 games left? Answer: That’s why we pray.
Thomas Daniels: Before tax day. It comes earlier every year.
22) What high payroll team (over $95 million) is likely to be a non-contender by September 1st?
Hulse: How about my PECOTA projected 77 win White Sox? They did just give Ozzie Guillen and his bipolar disorder an extension though, and he makes his teams gritty. So maybe they’re good for 80. Either way, they’re done.
Chad: Yankees.
Eugene: The Dodgers – all of the other big budget teams play in weaker divisions or already own them (or the wild card).
Daniels: If not for the absurdly weak division, I would have picked the Angels. That said, I think the Cubs (surprisingly) are going to disappoint this season and give way to the Brewers.
Aaron: The Nick Swisher acquisition did nothing to address the Chicago White Sox’s pee-poor pitching. The Tigers and Indians are the cream of the AL Central and if a few things break right for Minnesota, I could see the Pale Hose finishing as low as fourth. Wasn’t Ozzie Guillen’s ineptness just adorable when they were winning? Yes, it was.
23) What low payroll team will surprise everyone this year and make a run?
Hulse: It depends on your definition of “a run”. I mean, what’s more impressive, the Rays going 81-81 with a payroll around 25 million or Cleveland winning the Central again with a payroll of about 65 million? I’m firmly on the Rays for .500 bandwagon this season if their young pitching can develop. I’d take Cleveland but can a team that had a 3-1 lead in the ALCS last season really surprise you?
Chad: Tampa Bay.
Eugene: None – any small market club that could do it already is known (Colorado, Cleveland, Arizona).
Daniels: The Brewers. They now have a low-rent version of the Red Sox model in practice. A bunch of decent-to-good OBP guys surrounding one or two ridiculously good sluggers coupled with a serviceable-to-great bullpen and rotation.
Aaron: I really don’t think the A’s are going to be as bad as a lot of people think. They’re certainly not going to the playoffs, but every other team in the AL West has huge question marks from health (Angels) to offense/defense (Mariners) to pitching (Rangers). Oakland might hang around long enough to make it interesting, before fading in August/September.
24) Is Johan Santana likely to have a Josh Beckett/Barry Zito league-switching down season or should they just ship the Cy Young to Queens now?
Hulse: Send it. Beckett went from the NL in a ballpark that was super pitcher friendly to the AL and a pitchers nightmare. It took him some time to adjust. Zito was horrifically overrated before he left Oakland because he had a season where he won a lot of games and people remembered it. Santana will be going to one of the 5 best pitchers parks in baseball for half his starts and getting to face pitchers at the plate for 2 at bats per game. Imagine going from a place where you know you can’t win to a place where you have every opportunity to do so. He’ll be motivated and feed off the atmosphere at Shea, which is one of the few places where the crowd gets truly into a great pitching performance.
Chad:
Johan Santana
C/O New York Mets
123-01 Roosevelt Avenue
Flushing, NY 11368
Eugene: Like I mentioned before, Santana pitching in Shea will make up for any league-switching issues. Send him the award now.
Daniels: Barry Zito had an “adjustment” year because he’s been on the decline and wasn’t worth that much money to begin with. Beckett had an “adjustment” year because he was injured. Santana is not injured, in his prime, and is probably going to start the season with 7 straight wins as the league catches up to him. I have a feeling Santana is going to have a “2005 Roger Clemens” type year with more of those super-duper important Wins.
Aaron: Bartolo Colon stole the Cy from Johan in 2005, so the best starting pitcher in the league doesn’t always win it. And, for what it’s worth, Zito’s problems had less to do with switching leagues and more to do with being a nibbling lefty who’s too gutless to challenge big league hitters anymore. Back to your question, don’t ship the Cy Young to New York just yet.
25) If you had to make one fearless, out-on-a-limb, but sure to happen prediction, what would it be?
Hulse: Here goes nothing. I can’t wait to see the responses. The New York Yankees will not win 90 games this season. They will miss the playoffs. Write it down. The pitching staff is too young and the bullpen is too thin, especially if they go through with their plan to have Joba spend the first half of the season in the pen and the second half in the rotation (on a side note, isn’t that just asking for Joba to need Tommy John by 2009? Get his arm conditioned for short work then make him extend himself? I don’t understand it.). Couple that with a really deep American League where the Wild Card will be taken by a team that wins somewhere between 92-95 games, and I don’t see it.
Chad: The Tampa Bay Rays will, I repeat, WILL finish ahead of the New York Yankees.
Eugene: The AL Wildcard will come out of the Central.
Daniels: The Mets win 100 games this year and two of their pitchers will finish 1 and 2 in Cy Young voting.
Aaron: This will be Joe Torre’s first and last season as manager of the Dodgers. His hiring always seemed like more of an “eff you” to Hank Steinbrenner, instead of a real desire to build another World Series winner. Torre has better players than Jim Leyland did during his miserable 1999 stint with the Rockies, but the ending will be the same.
Bonus Question: What two teams, if contracted, would you not even notice were gone?
Hulse: Easy. The Royals and the Rangers. Everyone loves the Marlins for this, but honestly, at least they’ve been relevant in this decade. The Royals have been run into the ground for as long as I can remember as they shipped out every major piece of talent they’ve produced in the last decade for spare parts because they can’t committ like 10 million per year to anyone. Of course they’re more than willing to committ like 9 million to the dynamic duo of Brett Tomko and Mark Gudzielanek. You may also argue the Twins, and sure they’ve been shipping out talent they can’t afford, but at least they’ve been competitive for the recent few years. The Twins don’t need to be contracted as much as they need to be sold. Meanwhile the Rangers have been a doormat for almost their entire existence, save a stretch in the late 90’s where they become the Yankees personal ALDS whipping post. They’re alrgely remembered as the team that overpaid for ARod and sent the entire pay scale out of whack for the next decade. They’re done, dead to me.
Chad: Texas and Toronto
Eugene: Tampa Bay and Florida – both teams don’t have a large fan base and more of the locals follow their spring training teams.
Daniels: The Marlins and the Rays. Selig has certainly made some dumb decisions regarding team ownership, but putting two new franchises in a state and putting crappy owners in charge of both of them was a stupid idea.
Of course, now they’re both getting stadiums, so who knows.
Aaron: (1) NY Yankees (2) Boston Red Sox. Really, I’m not being an a-hole here. I live in San Diego, I root for the Oakland A’s and I watch/attend more games in the Pacific Time Zone than anywhere else. Furthermore, I go out of my way to tune out the breathless hyperbole and non-news stories that surround these two teams in the national media.
