Disclaimer
Here are the new and updated Baseball Rankings. Instead of just taking the record, pythagorean record, and farm system, I’ve given each part a weighed score:
– The Record accounts for half of the score. Since the standings are based of record, I thought it deserved more weight than the other parts.
– The Pythagorean Record is based off of Bill James theory that you can somewhat predict a team by runs scored and runs allowed. The Pythagorean Records accounts for a third of the score.
– The Farm System is worth a sixth of the scoring, since it will impact the team, but maybe not now.
– The Standard Deviation is 3 wins.
It’s still early in the season, but somethings are starting to correct themselves. All stats and records are prior to games on Tuesday.
Format
Team, Previous Ranking (rank up, down, same)
Record, Runs Scored, Runs Allowed, Minor League System Ranking (system up, down, same)
1. Arizona Diamondbacks, 1st (=)
14-5, 120 RS, 67 RA, 22th System (+)
2. Chicago Cubs, 9th (+)
13-6, 118 RS, 87 RA, 13th System (-)
3. Boston Red Sox, 10th (+)
14-7, 112 RS, 100 RA, 2nd System (-)
4. Oakland Athletics, 2nd (-)
12-8, 91 RS, 75 RA, 1st System (+)
5. St. Louis Cardinals, 3rd (-)
13-7, 91 RS, 71 RA, 21st System (=)
6. Atlanta Braves, 14th (+)
10-9, 103 RS, 68 RA, 5th System (=)
7. Chicago White Sox, 6th (-)
11-7, 98 RS, 66 RA, 30th System (-)
8. Los Angeles Angels, 8th (=)
12-8, 97 RS, 87 RA, 10th System (-)
9. Florida Marlins, 16th (+)
12-7, 92 RS, 99 RA, 14th System (+)
10. Milwaukee Brewers, 4th (-)
11-8, 90 RS, 78 RA, 24th System (-)
11. Baltimore Orioles, 5th (-)
11-8, 84 RS, 84 RA, 11th System (-)
12. New York Mets, 18th (+)
10-8, 87 RS, 69 RA, 28th System (=)
13. Seattle Mariners, 22nd (+)
10-10, 94 RS, 85 RA, 12th System (+)
14. Toronto Blue Jays, 12th (-)
10-10, 95 RS, 81 RA, 27th System (-)
15. New York Yankees, 17th (+)
10-10, 85 RS, 93 RA, 9th System (=)
16. Tampa Bay Rays, 11th (-)
8-11, 92 RS, 86 RA, 3rd System (=)
17. Philadelphia Phillies, 21rd (+)
10-10, 94 RS, 88 RA, 23rd System (-)
18. Los Angeles Dodgers, 23th (+)
8-11, 82 RS, 71 RA, 15th System (-)
19. Minnesota Twins, 20th (+)
9-10, 71 RS, 78 RA, 7th System (+)
20. Colorado Rockies, 25th (+)
9-10, 81 RS, 96 RA, 8th System (-)
21. Cincinnati Reds, 15th (-)
8-12, 81 RS, 96 RA, 6th System (=)
22. Kansas City Royals, 7th (-)
9-10, 63 RS, 77 RA, 26th System (=)
23. San Diego Padres, 19th (-)
9-11, 65 RS, 92 RA, 20th System (-)
24. Texas Rangers, 24th (=)
7-13, 82 RS, 105 RA, 4th System (=)
25. Houston Astros, 28th (+)
8-12, 83 RS, 91 RA, 29th System (+)
26. Cleveland Indians, 26th (=)
7-12, 79 RS, 90 RA, 18th System (+)
27. San Francisco Giants, 27th (=)
8-12, 63 RS, 98 RA, 17th System (-)
28. Pittsburgh Pirates, 13th (-)
7-12, 85 RS, 127 RA, 19th System (-)
29. Washington Nationals, 29nd (=)
5-15, 70 RS, 107 RA, 16th System (-)
30. Detroit Tigers, 30th (=)
7-13, 82 RS, 118 RA, 25th System (+)
Breakdown
The D’Backs still have the top spot, but were actually tied with the Cubs (the tie breaker is actual record, where they were a game up on the Cubbies). Over 162 games, the Diamondbacks are on pace to win 119 games; they are scoring enough to win 124 games.
One surprising them, the Athletics, are playing to their full potential right now. They have surprised everyone with a 12-8 record and also have the RS/RA breakdown that agrees with the record.
The Mariners were the team with the best week – they moved up 9 spots. It was mainly due to jump in the farm system and a collapse of…
The Royals and Pirates, both of whom dropped 15 spots. This week is a little more accurate for where they will be over a full season.
The Marlins are still winning despite giving up more runs that they have scored. They have 3 more wins that they should. This means they’ve been blown out a few times but have been winning close games. The Braves and the Dodgers should have 3 additional wins; the Dodgers should have a winning record.
The teams that are currently projected to break 100 wins based off current record:
1. Diamondbacks – 119
2. Cubs – 111
3. Red Sox – 108
4. Cardinals – 105
5. Marlins – 102
The teams that are currently projected to break 100 wins based off their RS/RA:
1. Diamondbacks – 124
2. Braves – 113
3. White Sox – 111
4. Cubs – 105
5. Cardinals – 101
[To figure the pythagorean record, ask me in the comments or use this formula:
(RS^2)/(RS^2 + RA^2)]
I’m going to be keeping graphs for each team to show where they move each week. I’ll hopefully will start linking those up each week.
I’ll be back next Tuesday with the updated rankings.
