Disclaimer
Here are the new and updated Baseball Rankings. Instead of just taking the record, pythagorean record, and farm system, I’ve given each part a weighed score:
– The Record accounts for half of the score. Since the standings are based of record, I thought it deserved more weight than the other parts.
– The Pythagorean Record is based off of Bill James theory that you can somewhat predict a team by runs scored and runs allowed. The Pythagorean Records accounts for a third of the score.
– The Farm System is worth a sixth of the scoring, since it will impact the team, but maybe not now.
– The Standard Deviation is 3 wins.
All stats and records are prior to games on Tuesday. I’m going to start putting each teams score up; max score is 90 points.
Format
Team, Previous Ranking (rank up, down, same)
Points, Record, Runs Scored, Runs Allowed, Minor League System Ranking (system up, down, same)
1. Oakland Athletics, 1st (=)
82.50 pts, 23-16, 187 RS, 145 RA, 1st System (=)
2. Chicago Cubs, 5th (+)
81.00 pts, 23-15, 223 RS, 161 RA, 19th System (-)
3. Boston Red Sox, 2nd (-)
77.50 pts, 24-17, 209 RS, 182 RA, 2nd System (=)
4. Tampa Bay Rays, 10th (+)
74.00 pts, 22-16, 178 RS, 156 RA, 4th System (-)
5. Arizona Diamondbacks, 3rd (-)
72.50 pts, 23-15, 208 RS, 164 RA, 25th System (-)
6. Florida Marlins, 13th (+)
68.50 pts, 23-15, 188 RS, 175 RA, 14th System (=)
7. Atlanta Braves, 8th (+)
67.50 pts, 19-18, 181 RS, 138 RA, 5th System (=)
8. Los Angeles Angels, 6th (-)
60.50 pts, 23-17, 188 RS, 185 RA, 12th System (-)
9. St. Louis Cardinals, 4th (-)
60.50 pts, 23-17, 180 RS, 162 RA, 21st System (-)
10. Minnesota Twins, 11th (+)
57.50 pts, 20-17, 165 RS, 166 RA, 7th System (=)
11. Los Angeles Dodgers, 7th (-)
56.00 pts, 19-18, 184 RS, 167 RA, 11th System (=)
12. Houston Astros, 17th (+)
55.50 pts, 22-17, 192 RS, 169 RA, 30th System (=)
13. Cleveland Indians, 20th (+)
54.50 pts, 19-19, 164 RS, 141 RA, 17th System (+)
14. Philadelphia Phillies, 9th (+)
51.50 pts, 21-18, 185 RS, 175 RA, 22nd System (=)
15. New York Mets, 14th (-)
46.50 pts, 19-17, 177 RS, 169 RA, 27th System (=)
16. New York Yankees, 12th (-)
43.00 pts, 19-20, 168 RS, 171 RA, 10th System (-)
17. Baltimore Orioles, 18th (+)
42.00 pts, 19-19, 156 RS, 167 RA, 13th System (-)
18. Milwaukee Brewers, 15th (-)
41.50 pts, 19-19, 166 RS, 182 RA, 18th System (+)
19. Chicago White Sox, 16th (-)
39.00 pts, 18-19, 175 RS, 158 RA, 29th System (=)
20. Texas Rangers, 24th (+)
37.50 pts, 19-21, 192 RS, 223 RA, 3rd System (+)
21. Pittsburgh Pirates, 27th (+)
32.50 pts, 18-20, 185 RS, 204 RA, 16th System (-)
22. Cincinnati Reds, 23rd (+)
27.50 pts, 16-23, 170 RS, 198 RA, 6th System (=)
23. Toronto Blue Jays, 19th (-)
27.00 pts, 18-22, 148 RS, 153 RA, 28th System (=)
24. Seattle Mariners, 21th (-)
23.00 pts, 15-25, 165 RS, 189 RA, 9th System (+)
25. Detroit Tigers, 26th (+)
21.00 pts, 16-22, 180 RS, 209 RA, 26th System (=)
26. Colorado Rockies, 28th (+)
21.00 pts, 15-23, 164 RS, 198 RA, 8th System (=)
27. Washington Nationals, 22nd (-)
19.50 pts, 16-23, 158 RS, 197 RA, 15th System (+)
28. Kansas City Royals, 25th (-)
18.50 pts, 16-21, 133 RS, 163 RA, 24th System (+)
29. San Francisco Giants, 29th (=)
13.50 pts, 16-23, 136 RS, 184 RA, 20th System (+)
30. San Diego Padres, 30th (=)
6.50 pts, 14-25, 131 RS, 185 RA, 23rd System (=)
Breakdown
The A’s are on top for the third week in a row. The Cubs have jumped up to second with a big sweep of the D’backs. Things are really coming together for the Cubbies, especially if they add Jim Edmonds bat to the bench.
The Padres sit at the bottom again. The have the worst record and run differential record in the game and are in the bottom third in farm systems.
The highest jumpers this week were the Marlins and Indians; they both moved up 7 spots. The Marlins were nearly flawless last week, even though they lost LF Josh Willingham to the DL. The Indians are starting to come around; as long as they score runs, their pitching should keep them in it.
The Cardinals, Phillies and National all dropped 5 spots. The Cardinals have lost 5 of their last six and the division lead. The Phillies have gotten back reigning MVP Jimmy Rollins, so their slide should stop. The Nats are the Nats, so their drop was to be expected; at least they are realizing a youth movement is needed.
The Braves have continued to be the underachieving team – this week moving to 4 wins below what they should be. I expect them to pick up a few lucky wins to balance out the difference. The Marlins and Angels have gotten 3 wins more than they should have.
The teams that are currently projected to break 100 wins based off current record:
None – the closes right now is the Cubs and D’backs with 98 wins.
The teams that are currently projected to break 100 wins based off their RS/RA:
1. Cubs – 106
2. Braves – 102
3. Diamondbacks – 101
4. Athletics – 100
[To figure the pythagorean record, ask me in the comments or use this formula:
(RS^2)/(RS^2 + RA^2)]
I’ll be back next Tuesday with the updated rankings.
