Tailgate Crashers Official Baseball Rankings: 05/20/2008

Disclaimer
Here are the new and updated Baseball Rankings. Instead of just taking the record, pythagorean record, and farm system, I’ve given each part a weighed score:
– The Record accounts for half of the score. Since the standings are based of record, I thought it deserved more weight than the other parts.
– The Pythagorean Record is based off of Bill James theory that you can somewhat predict a team by runs scored and runs allowed. The Pythagorean Records accounts for a third of the score.
– The Farm System is worth a sixth of the scoring, since it will impact the team, but maybe not now.
– The Standard Deviation is 3 wins.

All stats and records are prior to games on Tuesday. I’m going to start putting each teams score up; max score is 90 points.

Format
Team, Previous Ranking (rank up, down, same)
Points, Record, Runs Scored, Runs Allowed, Minor League System Ranking (system up, down, same)

1. Boston Red Sox, 3rd (+)
83.50 pts, 28-19, 246 RS, 209 RA, 2nd System (=)

2. Chicago Cubs, 2nd (=)
78.00 pts, 28-17, 263 RS, 186 RA, 22nd System (-)

3. Tampa Bay Rays, 4th (+)
77.00 pts, 28-19, 208 RS, 182 RA, 4th System (=)

4. Arizona Diamondbacks, 5th (+)
76.50 pts, 28-16, 238 RS, 182 RA, 26th System (-)

5. St. Louis Cardinals, 9th (+)
67.50 pts, 27-20, 217 RS, 199 RA, 16th System (+)

6. Atlanta Braves, 7th (+)
66.50 pts, 22-21, 205 RS, 163 RA, 5th System (=)

7. Oakland Athletics, 1st (-)
64.00 pts, 24-23, 204 RS, 174 RA, 1st System (=)

8. Los Angeles Angels, 8th (=)
63.00 pts, 26-20, 211 RS, 205 RA, 12th System (=)

9. Florida Marlins, 6th (-)
61.00 pts, 24-19, 213 RS, 206 RA, 15th System (-)

10. Chicago White Sox, 19th (+)
58.50 pts, 23-20, 203 RS, 173 RA, 29th System (=)

11. Los Angeles Dodgers, 11th (=)
57.50 pts, 23-21, 216 RS, 200 RA, 13th System (-)

12. New York Mets, 15th (+)
57.00 pts, 22-19, 204 RS, 184 RA, 27th System (=)

13. Baltimore Orioles, 17th (+)
55.50 pts, 23-20, 179 RS, 184 RA, 8th System (+)

14. Houston Astros, 12th (-)
53.00 pts, 25-21, 225 RS, 217 RA, 30th System (=)

15. Cleveland Indians, 13th (-)
51.50 pts, 22-22, 183 RS, 157 RA, 18th System (-)

16. Philadelphia Phillies, 14th (-)
51.00 pts, 24-22, 219 RS, 206 RA, 21st System (+)

17. Minnesota Twins, 10th (-)
47.50 pts, 22-22, 190 RS, 197 RA, 7th System (=)

18. Texas Rangers, 20th (+)
43.00 pts, 22-24, 232 RS, 251 RA, 3rd System (=)

19. Toronto Blue Jays, 23rd (+)
36.00 pts, 23-23, 177 RS, 181 RA, 28th System (=)

20. Pittsburgh Pirates, 21st (+)
35.50 pts, 21-23, 219 RS, 235 RA, 17th System (-)

21. Cincinnati Reds, 22nd (+)
35.00 pts, 21-24, 201 RS, 222 RA, 6th System (=)

22. New York Yankees, 16th (-)
30.50 pts, 20-24, 179 RS, 197 RA, 11th System (-)

23. Kansas City Royals, 28th (+)
25.00 pts, 21-23, 165 RS, 192 RA, 23rd System (+)

24. Milwaukee Brewers, 18th (-)
25.00 pts, 20-24, 193 RS, 221 RA, 19th System (-)

25. Seattle Mariners, 24th (-)
24.50 pts, 18-27, 182 RS, 207 RA, 10th System (-)

26. Colorado Rockies, 26th (=)
23.50 pts, 18-26, 191 RS, 229 RA, 9th System (-)

27. Washington Nationals, 27th (=)
21.50 pts, 20-26, 181 RS, 218 RA, 14th System (+)

28. Detroit Tigers, 25th (-)
10.50 pts, 17-27, 192 RS, 232 RA, 25th System (+)

29. San Francisco Giants, 29th (=)
10.50 pts, 17-29, 162 RS, 222 RA, 20th System (=)

30. San Diego Padres, 30th (=)
6.00 pts, 16-30, 152 RS, 219 RA, 24th System (-)

Breakdown
The Red Sox jump to number 1 in dominant fashion – no hitting the Royals yesterday. They’ve had the last 2 no hit pitchers and traded Anibal Sanchez, who had the last no hitter before Lester and Buchholz, the off-season before he did it. That’s part of the reason they normally have solid teams; their great farm system.

Surprise, surprise: The Padres sit at the bottom again. I still don’t know why they haven’t started to move pieces yet – if I were them, I’d hang onto Kouzmanoff, Bard, Gonzalez, Peavy, and Young. Everyone else would be expendable.

The highest jumper this week was the White Sox; they jumped 9 spots after recovering from a bad 2 week stretch.

The Twins dropped 7 spots this week and lost the lead in the AL Central. I was surprised that they got as high as they did considering they are missing a few pieces. I don’t see them as a horrible team, but one that’s a season from competing (although Lester would have looked nice for them).

7 weeks of rankings, 7 weeks of the Braves losing more games than their run differential supports. They should have an additional 4 wins (which makes them the only team outside of the standard deviation). The trend on the other end of the spectum is to have 2 wins more than you should; the Marlins, Angels, Orioles, and Royals have done this. What’s surprising is the Angels and Marlins hold division leads while winning game that they shouldn’t – this may catch up with them.

The teams that are currently projected to break 100 wins based off current record:
1. Diamondbacks – 103
2. Cubs – 101

The teams that are currently projected to break 100 wins based off their RS/RA:
1. Cubs – 108
2. Diamondbacks – 102

[To figure the pythagorean record, ask me in the comments or use this formula:
(RS^2)/(RS^2 + RA^2)]

I’ll be back next Tuesday with the updated rankings.

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