Disclaimer
Here are the new and updated Baseball Rankings. Instead of just taking the record, pythagorean record, and farm system, I’ve given each part a weighed score:
– The Record accounts for half of the score. Since the standings are based of record, I thought it deserved more weight than the other parts.
– The Pythagorean Record is based off of Bill James theory that you can somewhat predict a team by runs scored and runs allowed. The Pythagorean Records accounts for a third of the score.
– The Farm System is worth a sixth of the scoring, since it will impact the team, but maybe not now.
– The Standard Deviation is 3 wins.
All stats and records are prior to games on Tuesday. I’m going to start putting each teams score up; max score is 90 points.
Format
Team, Previous Ranking (rank up, down, same)
Points, Record, Runs Scored, Runs Allowed, Minor League System Ranking (system up, down, same)
1. Tampa Bay Rays, 3rd (+)
83.00 pts, 31-20, 237 RS, 204 RA, 3rd System (+)
2. Boston Red Sox, 1st (-)
77.00 pts, 32-22, 276 RS, 241 RA, 4th System (-)
3. Oakland Athletics, 7th (+)
73.00 pts, 28-23, 232 RS, 184 RA, 1st System (=)
4. Chicago Cubs, 2nd (-)
72.50 pts, 30-21, 291 RS, 210 RA, 24th System (-)
5. Atlanta Braves, 6th (+)
71.50 pts, 28-23, 246 RS, 196 RA, 5th System (=)
6. Florida Marlins, 9th (+)
70.50 pts, 30-20, 245 RS, 230 RA, 15th System (=)
7. Arizona Diamondbacks, 4th (-)
69.00 pts, 30-21, 265 RS, 206 RA, 26th System (=)
8. Los Angeles Angels, 8th (=)
68.50 pts, 30-20, 229 RS, 217 RA, 12th System (=)
9. St. Louis Cardinals, 5th (-)
65.00 pts, 30-22, 239 RS, 210 RA, 16th System (=)
10. Chicago White Sox, 10th (=)
61.50 pts, 28-22, 227 RS, 187 RA, 29th System (=)
11. Philadelphia Phillies, 16th (+)
59.50 pts, 29-24, 280 RS, 232 RA, 19th System (+)
12. Los Angeles Dodgers, 11th (-)
55.50 pts, 26-24, 231 RS, 215 RA, 13th System (=)
13. Houston Astros, 14th (+)
49.50 pts, 29-23, 253 RS, 249 RA, 30th System (=)
14. Toronto Blue Jays, 19th (+)
48.50 pts, 28-25, 208 RS, 195 RA, 28th System (=)
15. Texas Rangers, 18th (+)
47.50 pts, 26-27, 274 RS, 292 RA, 2nd System (+)
16. Minnesota Twins, 17th (+)
47.00 pts, 25-25, 227 RS, 243 RA, 7th System (=)
17. Baltimore Orioles, 13th (-)
46.50 pts, 25-25, 206 RS, 215 RA, 9th System (-)
18. New York Yankees, 22nd (+)
44.00 pts, 25-26, 223 RS, 229 RA, 10th System (+)
19. Cleveland Indians, 15th (-)
35.00 pts, 23-28, 205 RS, 194 RA, 21st System (-)
20. Cincinnati Reds, 21st (+)
33.00 pts, 23-28, 225 RS, 255 RA, 6th System (=)
21. Pittsburgh Pirates, 20th (-)
32.50 pts, 24-26, 244 RS, 271 RA, 20th System (-)
22. Milwaukee Brewers, 24th (+)
32.00 pts, 24-27, 224 RS, 249 RA, 19th System (-)
23. New York Mets, 13th (-)
32.00 pts, 23-26, 231 RS, 230 RA, 27th System (=)
24. Washington Nationals, 27th (+)
25.00 pts, 22-30, 200 RS, 247 RA, 14th System (=)
25. Colorado Rockies, 26th (+)
22.50 pts, 20-31, 215 RS, 273 RA, 8th System (+)
26. Detroit Tigers, 28th (+)
22.00 pts, 21-30, 246 RS, 265 RA, 25th System (=)
27. Seattle Mariners, 25th (-)
15.50 pts, 18-34, 212 RS, 273 RA, 11th System (-)
28. Kansas City Royals, 23rd (-)
14.00 pts, 21-30, 181 RS, 234 RA, 22nd System (+)
29. San Francisco Giants, 29th (=)
14.00 pts, 20-31, 189 RS, 244 RA, 17th System (+)
30. San Diego Padres, 30th (=)
8.00 pts, 19-33, 182 RS, 253 RA, 23rd System (+)
Breakdown
I never thought I’d say this, but the Rays are the top team this week. They have the best winning percentage and have positive run differential. I think they are the real deal; I don’t think they will keep this up (a la 2007 Brewers), but they’ll take second and be in contention for the wild card.
The Phillies and Blue Jays took the biggest jump this week, both moving up 5 spots. The Phillies are playing under their potential (by 2 wins), but it looks like Ryan Howard is coming alive.
The Mets had the biggest drop this week, going down 11 spots. They just had a horrible week; I’m very surprised by how they have played. Adding Santana looked like the final piece, but everything else looks to be coming undone.
For the first time this season, the Braves do not lead in missed wins – the Cubs and the Indians both should have 4 more wins than they really do. The Angels are the opposite; they have 4 wins they shouldn’t. All 3 teams are outside the standard deviation, which we will probably be seeing more often from this point.
The teams that are currently projected to break 100 wins based off current record:
None – The Rays are the closest with 98 wins.
The teams that are currently projected to break 100 wins based off their RS/RA:
1. Cubs – 107
2. Diamondbacks – 101
[To figure the pythagorean record, ask me in the comments or use this formula:
(RS^2)/(RS^2 + RA^2)]
I’ll be back next Tuesday with the updated rankings.
