Disclaimer
Here are the new and updated Baseball Rankings. Instead of just taking the record, pythagorean record, and farm system, I’ve given each part a weighed score:
– The Record accounts for half of the score. Since the standings are based of record, I thought it deserved more weight than the other parts.
– The Pythagorean Record is based off of Bill James theory that you can somewhat predict a team by runs scored and runs allowed. The Pythagorean Records accounts for a third of the score.
– The Farm System is worth a sixth of the scoring, since it will impact the team, but maybe not now.
– The Standard Deviation is 3 wins.
All stats and records are prior to games on Tuesday. I’m going to start putting each teams score up; max score is 90 points.
Format
Team, Previous Ranking (rank up, down, same)
Points, Record, Runs Scored, Runs Allowed, Minor League System Ranking (system up, down, same)
1. Tampa Bay Rays, 1st (=)
79.50 pts, 35-22, 257 RS, 228 RA, 3rd System (=)
2. Chicago Cubs, 4th (+)
78.50 pts, 37-21, 331 RS, 238 RA, 24th System (=)
3. Boston Red Sox, 2nd (-)
78.00 pts, 35-25, 302 RS, 261 RA, 4th System (=)
4. Philadelphia Phillies, 11th (+)
75.00 pts, 34-25, 320 RS, 256 RA, 17th System (+)
5. Oakland Athletics, 3rd (-)
72.50 pts, 31-27, 257 RS, 220 RA, 1st System (=)
6. Los Angeles Angels, 8th (+)
69.50 pts, 35-24, 249 RS, 242 RA, 12th System (=)
7. Atlanta Braves, 5th (-)
68.00 pts, 30-28, 274 RS, 223 RA, 5th System (=)
8. St. Louis Cardinals, 9th (+)
65.00 pts, 34-25, 270 RS, 248 RA, 18th System (-)
9. Arizona Diamondbacks, 7th (-)
64.00 pts, 32-26, 290 RS, 238 RA, 26th System (=)
10. Florida Marlins, 8th (-)
60.50 pts, 31-25, 274 RS, 271 RA, 16th System (-)
11. Chicago White Sox, 10th (-)
59.00 pts, 30-26, 244 RS, 209 RA, 29th System (=)
12. Minnesota Twins, 16th (+)
56.50 pts, 30-27, 267 RS, 274 RA, 8th System (-)
13. Toronto Blue Jays, 14th (+)
53.50 pts, 31-28, 238 RS, 210 RA, 27th System (+)
14. Los Angeles Dodgers, 12th (-)
55.50 pts, 28-29, 257 RS, 244 RA, 14th System (-)
15. Texas Rangers, 15th (=)
46.50 pts, 29-30, 317 RS, 334 RA, 2nd System (=)
16. Milwaukee Brewers, 22nd (+)
45.00 pts, 30-28, 252 RS, 265 RA, 13th System (+)
17. New York Yankees, 18th (+)
42.00 pts, 28-29, 255 RS, 263 RA, 11th System (-)
18. New York Mets, 23rd (+)
40.00 pts, 28-28, 267 RS, 265 RA, 28th System (-)
19. Houston Astros, 13th (-)
39.00 pts, 30-28, 267 RS, 279 RA, 30th System (=)
20. Cincinnati Reds, 20th (=)
38.00 pts, 28-30, 266 RS, 285 RA, 6th System (=)
21. Cleveland Indians, 19th (-)
37.00 pts, 26-31, 239 RS, 225 RA, 21st System (=)
22. Baltimore Orioles, 17th (-)
34.00 pts, 27-29, 233 RS, 251 RA, 9th System (=)
23. Pittsburgh Pirates, 21st (-)
26.50 pts, 27-30, 285 RS, 311 RA, 19th System (+)
24. San Francisco Giants, 29th (+)
22.00 pts, 25-33, 228 RS, 270 RA, 20th System (-)
25. Detroit Tigers, 26th (+)
22.00 pts, 24-33, 270 RS, 287 RA, 25th System (=)
26. Washington Nationals, 24th (-)
19.50 pts, 24-34, 217 RS, 273 RA, 15th System (=)
27. Seattle Mariners, 27th (=)
16.50 pts, 21-37, 233 RS, 294 RA, 10th System (+)
28. Kansas City Royals, 28th (=)
15.00 pts, 23-34, 207 RS, 260 RA, 23rd System (-)
29. Colorado Rockies, 25th (-)
14.50 pts, 20-38, 242 RS, 322 RA, 7th System (+)
30. San Diego Padres, 30th (=)
11.00 pts, 23-36, 216 RS, 278 RA, 22nd System (+)
Breakdown
The Rays have hung on for the second week in a row. At this point, they are the closest to having the complete package. Just imagine in another year or 2 as a lot of their pitching prospects will be ready. They really are making the East interesting.
The Phillies took the largest jump again this week, moving up 7 spots. The are on fire right now; it was no fluke that they won the NL East last year.
After a big week from the Astros, they dropped 6 spots this week. They’ve been really inconsistent this year; look for it to continue all season.
The Braves are back as the top under-performing team – the should have an additional 5 wins based off their run differential. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Angels have 5 more wins than they should; it’s surprising for a first place team.
The teams that are currently projected to break 100 wins based off current record:
1. Cubs – 103
The 4 playoff teams based off record:
NL East – Phillies
NL Central – Cubs
NL West – Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card – Cardinals
AL East – Rays
AL Central – White Sox
AL West – Angels
AL Wild Card – Red Sox
The teams that are currently projected to break 100 wins based off their run differential:
1. Cubs – 107
The 4 playoff teams based off run differential:
NL East – Phillies
NL Central – Cubs
NL West – Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card – Braves
AL East – Red Sox
AL Central – White Sox
AL West – Athletics
AL Wild Card – Blue Jays
[To figure the pythagorean record, ask me in the comments or use this formula:
(RS^2)/(RS^2 + RA^2)]
I’ll be back next Tuesday with the updated rankings.
