Breaking Down the First Round

Well, 6 out of 30 isn’t horrible for the first time I’ve done a mock draft. Overall, this was a screwy draft. Most of what was said before hand went completely out the window.

1. Rays
Drafted: Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (GA)
Predicted: Buster Posey, C, Florida St
Last minute demands are apparently what knocked Posey down to the Giants. Beckham should have been the first pick, so everything worked out.

2. Pirates
Drafted: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
Predicted: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
The Pirates wanted him and he wanted to be there. It was meant to be.

3. Royals
Drafted: Eric Homser, 1B, American Heritage HS
Predicted: Aaron Crow, P, Missouri; Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (GA)
I thought Homser would have dropped due to bonus demands, but the Royals really stepped up here. Hopefully they can sign him.

4. Orioles
Drafted: Brian Matusz, P, San Diego
Predicted: Brian Matusz, P, San Diego
Matusz was the top pitcher available. Scouts said that there was a hint of Erik Bedard to him, so it seemed perfect for the Orioles.

5. Giants
Drafted: Buster Posey, C, Florida St.
Predicted: TiM Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (GA); Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia
The Giants have no catching and this will be a good fit for them. Hopefully the rebuilding will be in place when he’s ready.

6. Marlins
Drafted: Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS (CA)
Predicted: Kyle Shipworth, C, Patriot HS (CA)
They went as everyone was predicted – one of the few.

7. Reds
Drafted: Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami
Predicted: Tim Melville, P, Holt HS (MO); Aaron Crow, P, Missouri
Even with 3 young arms at the MLB level, I thought the Reds would go pitcher. Instead, they started the trend of passing on pitchers to get strong hitters.

8. White Sox
Drafted: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia
Predicted: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia; Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
Beckham fits pretty well here. He’ll move fast and they’ll have an opening.

9. Nationals
Drafted: Aaron Crow, P, Missouri
Predicted: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina; Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)
The Nationals really need arms and I didn’t expect Crow to fall to them. Crow will probably move fast.

10. Astros
Drafted: Jason Castro, C, Stanford
Predicted: Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL); Shooter Hunt, P, Tulane
I’m still scratching my head here. There was a big drop off after Castro in catchers, but he’s definitely a reach here (especially for a team that has a young catcher already).

11. Rangers
Drafted: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
Predicted: Shooter Hunt, P, Tulane; Gerrit Cole, P, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)
This was again the case of not expecting him to be here. They get a good first baseman that will move pretty fast.

12. Atletics
Drafted: Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami
Predicted: Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami; Tanner Scheppers, P, Fresno St
I’m surprised here. I know I predicted it in the first mock draft, but I thought he was a stretch. Weeks does hit well and fields better than his brother; both things Billy Beane looks for.

13. Cardinals
Drafted: Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona St.
Predicted: Christian Friedrich, P, Eastern Kentucky
I’m happy. They took a power bat instead of a college pitcher or high school fielder. He’s expected to start in Hi A and move fast. He’ll probably stay at 3B or move to LF.

14. Twins
Drafted: Aaron Hick, OF, Woodrow Wilson HS
Predicted: Ethan Martin, P/3B, Stephens Co HS (GA); Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona St
Hick’s name popped up often before the draft. He’ll be a good outfielder in a few years.

15. Dodgers
Drafted: Ethan Martin, P, Stephens County HS
Predicted: Gerrit Cole, P, Orange Lutheran HS (CA); Tim Melville, P, Holt HS (MO)
Martin has upside as a hitter and a pitcher, but the Dodgers want him as a pitcher.

16. Brewers
Drafted: Brett Lawrie, C, Brookswood SS
Predicted: Josh Fields, P, Georgia
Lawrie put on some impressive workouts in the last few weeks; his stock really took off in the last 10 days. They’ll use him at catcher, but he also plays 2B.

17. Blue Jays
Drafted: David Cooper, 1B, UC Berkley
Predicted: Alex Meyers, P, Greensburg HS (IN)
I saw Cooper as an end of the first round talent, but the Jays saw something different. He’s part of the reason some pitchers dropped.

18. Mets
Drafted: Ike Davis, 1B, Arizona St.
Predicted: Tanner Scheppers, P, Fresno St; Ethan Martin, P/3B, Stephens Co HS (GA)
Same as Cooper, but he was projecting as a supplemental pick. The Mets could have grabbed him with their next pick.

19. Cubs
Drafted: Andrew Cashner, P, Texas Christian
Predicted: Aaron Hicks, CF/RHP, Woodrow Wilson HS (CA)
Hicks moved up, so they took a college reliever who will move fast.

20. Mariners
Drafted: Josh Fields, P, Georgia
Predicted: Andrew Cashner, P, Texas Christian
Cashner and Fields were interchangible for the Mariners.

21. Tigers
Drafted: Ryan Perry, P, Arizona
Predicted: Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS (FL)
Since Hosmer’s signability questions were quieted, he didn’t drop. The Tigers took a college closer that could be moved to a starter. He’s a safe pick for a team that likes upside.

22. Mets
Drafted: David Havens, SS, South Carolina
Predicted: Jason Castro, C, Stanford
I know little about Havens, but I don’t think a college SS is really what they needed, or the best pick available.

23. Padres
Drafted: Allan Dykstra, 1B, Wake Forest
Predicted: Dennis Raben, OF, Miami (FL)
See Ike Davis.

24. Phillies
Drafted: Anthony Hewitt, SS, Salisbury School
Predicted: Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona St; Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita State
Hewitt is one of the better middle infielders available, so it wasn’t a bad pick. Their system doesn’t offer much infield-wise, so he’ll be a definite improvement.

25. Rockies
Drafted: Christian Friedrich, P, Eastern Kentucky
Predicted: Ryan Perry, P, Arizona
This guy wasn’t supposed to fall this far; he did and the Rockies will reap the benefits. He’ll move pretty fast and they need the pitching depth.

26. Diamondbacks
Drafted: Daniel Schlereth, P, Arizona
Predicted: Bryan Price, P, Rice
The local product wants to be up in the Majors by September, which is certainly possible.

27. Twins
Drafted: Carlos Gutierrez, P, Miami
Predicted: Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita State; Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami
I don’t know much about Gutierrez; he’s a reliever and should move fast.

28. Yankees
Drafted: Gerrit Cole, P, Orange Lutheran HS
Predicted: David Cooper, 1B, California
This is a definite upgrade over my prediction. Cole is one of the better HS arms available.

29. Indians
Drafted: Lonnie Chisenhall, SS, Pitt CC
Predicted: James Darnell, 3B, South Carolina
This is a risky pick, because he was kicked out of a major college program for stealing money from the coach’s wallet. If the character issues are behind him, he could be a decent pick.

30. Red Sox
Drafted: Casey Kelly, SS, Sarasota HS
Predicted: Casey Kelly, SS/P, Sarasota HS (FL)
Many thought he’d go higher, but his commitment to football scared teams. The Red Sox will give the money to keep him in baseball. He’ll be a hitter; his pitching ability is pretty raw.

The supplemental round starts shortly and here is the draft order:
31. Twins – Shooter Hunt, P, Tulane
All I can say is I’m shocked he fell out of the first round.
32. Brewers – Jake Odorizzi, P, Highland HS
He’s from near me, and got a lot of hype before the draft.
33. Mets – Brad Holt, P, UNC Wilmington
34. Phillies – Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills HS
Another big drop.
35. Brewers – Evan Frederick, P, San Francisco
36. Royals – Michael Montgomery, P, Hart HS
37. Giants – Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita St.
This is perfect for the Giants – he’s going to be ready fast and they need the help.
38. Astros – Jordan Lyles, P, Hartsville HS
39. Cardinals – Lance Lynn, P, Mississippi
40. Braves – Brett DeVall, P, Niceville HS
41. Cubs – Ryan Flaherty, SS, Vanderbilt
42. Padres – Jaff Decker, OF, Sunrise Mountain HS
43. Diamondbacks – Wade Miley, LHP, Southeastern Louisiana
44. Yankees – Jeremy Bleich, P, Stanford
45. Red Sox – Bryan Price, P, Rice
46. Padres – John Forsythe, 3B, Arkansas Fayetteville

Tim Mehlville, another kid from my area, was supposed to be the top HS arm in the draft, but he didn’t have a good season (he got better as it went on, but he didn’t look the same as the previous year). Rumor has it his parents sent a letter to the MLB teams stating he wanted high first round money no matter where he was drafted. He also has a commitment to North Carolina. My guess is he will be playing there next year instead of the Royals system.