My God, I’ve been slacking this year. The season stalked up on me this year. Out of nowhere it starts in two days. I haven’t written anything about it…. haven’t really even thought about it. I guess I’ve been too busy riding on the World Champion High. I think I’m going to roll with a new bit of a feature this year to go along with this new gimmicky work pool I’m in. The idea is thus: Pick five games each week with the spread. You will assign a point value 1 – 5 depending on your confidence in the pick. Should you win the game, you gain the points you assigned to that game.
Here’s the other game: you put your picks against mine in the comments section. If you beat me, you get to mock me endlessly.
Thursday
Washington Redskins +3.5 at New York Giants: I was planning on giving the Giants their standard 4-2 in the division this season — but I don’t think the Eagles or Redskins are really good enough to beat them. Even with Osi sidelined for the season, I’m pretty sure the Giants pass rush is good enough to get through and catch Jason Campbell and Clinton Portis is like 75 in runningback years. Add to that the whole banner raising ceremony before the game and everything. I think the Giants have this game on lockdown. Giants cover.
Sunday
Cincinnati Bengals -1 at Baltimore Ravens: New Coach + New Quarterback = no way I’m picking them in week one. Bengals outright.
New York Jets -3 at Miami Dolphins: This game is intriguing for a lot of different reasons. Most notably, obviously, is the fact that the first Jets game of the season will be against Chad Pennington. Secondly, I’ve made the argument for a lot of years that, if someone in the Jets organization had half-a-brain, they’d design an offense around Pennington’s towel-arm instead of in-spite of it. Parcells has watched Pennington from afar for quite some time now. I’d imagine he has, at least, mentioned to his offensive coordinator that Pennington is at his best under 30 years and to do their best not to tax that unless they have to. This is a really, really hard game to pick, but I don’t think the Dophins are getting enough credit… yet. Dolphins outright.
Kansas City Chiefs +16.5 at New England Patriots: I don’t really believe in the whole stupid Brady injury thing. I think it’s just Billy being Billy. That said, a 16.5 point blowout in the first week of the season is a bold claim. They blew the doors off the Jets by 24 the first week of last year. If it was anyone other than the Patriots, I’d be hesitant to make this pick, but the Patriots are so drastically better than the Chiefs AND I see no reason that they’re not going to make a statement at home the first week of the season. Patriots cover.
Houston Texans +6.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers: I’m not buying the Texans as anything more than a flash in the pan until they give me reason to. Steelers cover.
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Tennessee Titans: I’m not hopping on the Vince Young bandwagon until I have some reason to. At this point, the Jags are still the quietest 10-win team that didn’t win the Super Bowl. Jags cover.
Detroit Lions -3 at Atlanta Falcons: Hop back on the Jesuswagon against a team that still has to prove they’re not a mess? AND only three points? Sold. Lions cover.
Seattle Seahawks -1 at Buffalo Bills: I think the Seahawks window has closed… I’m also pretty close to thinking the Bills are going to be the surprise team this year. I’ll get into this later. Bills outright.
Tampa Bay Bucs +3.5 at New Orleans Saints: Reggie Bush is going to have a renaissance season this year for reasons I’ll get in to when I write the preview. The Jeff Garcia bandwagon did me solid last year, but it’s not time to hop on it yet. Saints cover.
St. Louis Rams +7 at Philadelphia Eagles: The perpetual over-rating of the Eagles goes on for another year. The Eagles have been rolling the dice with essentially the same team for three years now. Last year the Giants and Cowboys got better and the Eagles finished 8-8. I see no reason this doesn’t happen again. The Eagles aren’t blowing anyone out, but I have very little faith in the Rams. Rams +7.
Cowboys -4 at Browns: Doesn’t it seem like the Cowboys should be like $50 million over the cap? I’m not buying what the Browns are selling yet… especially not against a team that should be an NFC playoff team. I desperately want the Cowboys to fall apart this year… but I desperately want that every year. Cowboys cover.
Carolina Panthers +9 at Chargers: I’m a bit hesitant to pick the Chargers with big points the first week of the season because I don’t really know how I feel about the team. I don’t know how Philip Rivers’ ACL is going to hold up over a 60-minute game and I don’t know how much whining LDT will do over a 60 minute game. I can’t give away that many points unless I’m sure and sleep at night. Panthers +9.
Arizona Cardinals -3 at San Francisco 49ers: There may not be a professional sports division I know less about than the NFC West. The little I do know is that a few too many people are picking the Niners (again) as the “team outta nowhere” which officially makes them NOT the “team outta nowhere.” On the other hand, the Cards have been dealing with a QB controversy through all of their camp. The weird Leinart/Warner platoon worked last year. I’ll give it a whirl for at least one week. Cards cover.
Chicago Bears +9 at Indianapolis Colts: The window on the Colts has to be closing here pretty soon, I think. There are only so many seasons in a row that you can win 13 or 14 games, right? Manning is possibly hurt and the Bears defense should keep this close-ish. The Bears are getting a Colts-tax of about 3 points. Bears +9.
Monday
Vikings +3 at Packers: Occasionally, I do enjoy point spreads. Mostly, I enjoy them in instances where they exist on silly things like “mystique.” The Packers are going to be terrible this year. Aaron Rogers is not good and no amount of Lambeau Mystique is going to carry the Packers to the top of their division this year. I’ll take the Vikings and a few extra points just to be sure. Vikings outright.
Denver Broncos -3 at Oakland Raiders: Sorry Cam, not picking your boys until the give me a reason to. Broncos cover.
5 point game: Giants -3.5 over Redskins
4 point game: Vikings +3 over Packers
3 point game: Cowboys -4 over Browns
2 point game: Bills +1 over Seahawks
1 point game: Bengals -1 over Browns
