So, as the season winds down, here’s a look back at MLB’s Top 25 Free Agents for 2008. I’ve included their analysis and where they were considered options. I’ll look at the signings now and see if they paid off so far.
(MLB had them listed in alphabetical order rather than ranking them)
A-Rod, 3B: Going with the nickname because Alex Rodriguez has to be on top of any list. We all know about the numbers and the talent. But this week, he’ll become the first three-time MVP to never appear in a World Series. Suitors: Angels, Dodgers, Giants and Mets.
I’m still a little surprised they didn’t have the Yankees listed. He’s been as expected – definitely a good signing for the Yankees.
Barry Bonds, LF-DH: The tarnished image has begun to overshadow the talent, but plenty of that still remains. Bonds fell a couple of dozen plate appearances shy of qualifying for the lead, but his .480 on-base percentage was, by far, the Majors’ best. Suitors: Angels, A’s and Padres.
Collusion against him (according to him and his agent) has kept him out of the game this year. He still maintains he can and wants to play, but it probably won’t happen.
Milton Bradley, OF: For a guy with his name, he sure hasn’t been playing many games lately. Bradley has missed 254 of them in the past three seasons due to various injuries. But the talent is there, and he hasn’t yet turned 30, so teams continue to be intrigued. Suitors: Padres, Phillies, Twins and Mariners.
The Ranger gave Bradley a shot and it’s paid off big-time. He’s one of the offensive leaders on the team (and in the AL). He’s looking to get a long term deal after this season, which he deserves.
Luis Castillo, 2B: A three-time All-Star and a triple Gold Glove Award winner, Castillo has been an unappreciated gem for a dozen seasons. During his short stay in New York, the Mets certainly grew to appreciate the near-.300 career hitter who can still be a weapon on the bases, especially following a recent surgery to clean out his right knee. Suitors: Mets and Astros.
The first bust of the list. Castillo is in decline, yet the Mets threw 4 years his way. They have since soured on him and will be looking to deal him this off-season.
Francisco Cordero, RHP: After a 44-save season, Cordero, virtually, has the closers’ market to himself. There’s a new hole in Houston’s bullpen, but would he really want to return to the state of Texas? Suitors: Astros and Brewers.
I wouldn’t say this one is a bust, but Cordero has no value on a team that doesn’t get many wins. He’d be better off on either of the teams he was projected to; instead he gets to watch a lot of games.
David Eckstein, SS: Indications are that Eckstein will have to fight the not-enough-tools battle all over again, but the little guy is simply a winner. And he’s coming off his career-best .309 season, though he lost 45 games to a painful back. Suitors: White Sox.
With little else to do, Eckstein signed a one year deal with Toronto to prove he was healthy. While it hasn’t been the best year, he’s still a “gamer”. He’s in decline, so I don’t see much of a deal coming this season either.
Pedro Feliz, 3B: Not on the A-list of available third basemen (including trade possibilities), but Feliz has averaged 21 homers and 82 RBIs since 2004. The Yankees could be looking at him and envisioning Scott Brosius.
While he hasn’t been the replacement for Scott Rolen the Phillies have been looking for for years, he’s not a bust either. He’s a light hitting, slick fielding players; it’s what he’s been and what they knew he’d be.
Josh Fogg, RHP: Fogg stands out in a paltry group of starting pitchers, with a winning record (10-9). The righty is also boosted by the “Suppan Syndrome” — Jeff Suppan having cashed in a year ago on his appearance in the World Series. Suitors: Phillies, Braves and Royals.
Another bust – at least as a starter. Fogg went to Cincinnati with a rotation spot, but was bumped to the bullpen. He’s bounced back and forth, but he’s not put up the numbers he’s been hoping for. I don’t know if they were expecting more when they signed him, but they shouldn’t have.
Eric Gagne, RHP: OK, so Gagne won’t set up for anyone. But in his weirdly split 2007, he did convert 16 out of 17 saves in Texas before moving to Boston. And how about his career 95-percent conversion rate? He’ll only be 32 years old at the start of the 2008 season. Suitors: Mets, Giants, Cubs, Orioles and Rangers.
Probably the top bust on the list. The Brewers would have been much better off shelling out the money to keep Cordero – in fact, the would probably still have the Wild Card lead and be right with the Cubs at the top of the NL Central.
Jose Guillen, OF: Guillen’s on his way to his ninth team in 12 seasons. Yet his 23 homers and 99 RBIs in Seattle attested to another pattern, that the guy is a player. Suitors: Cardinals and Royals.
The Royals signed him and are shopping him. I don’t see many teams interested in that contract, unless the Royals take on an equally bad contract. He’s been a bust, but I expect him to bounce back.
LaTroy Hawkins, RHP: The neo-value of middle relievers gets Hawkins on this list, especially because his last impression was the best, as he held batters to a .133 average in five postseason appearances. Hawkins has become more effective in his later years as he’s stopped being a worrier. Hawkins would prefer to stay in Colorado, but he won’t lack alternatives.
The Yankees signed him, and dealt him after a really bad start. The Astros are now using him, and he’s been pretty effective (0.00 ERA in 17 innings). He’s probably in the middle of this pack due to the turn around after the trade.
Livan Hernandez, RHP: As the Kenny Lofton of the mound (he has pitched for three different teams in the postseason), Hernandez may be on his way to a sixth team. He’s posted wins in double figures and topped 200 innings for eight consecutive seasons, and he is always good for 33-34 starts per year. Suitors: Mariners, Mets and Phillies.
Bust – Hernandez had a good start to the season, but quickly fell off. It was so bad that the Twins just waived him (Colorado claimed him). Many were calling for his head earlier in the season.
Torii Hunter, CF: He’s a magical defensive player with a heavy bat and a sensational personality. Dealing ace Johan Santana would put the Twins in a position to keep Hunter. But the Texas native can either opt to be a homebody or go in search of his legend. Suitors: Rangers, Astros, Nationals, Braves, Twins, White Sox and Yankees.
The Angels snagging Hunter caught everyone off guard; they had a full outfield before the signing. Hunter has been a good signing, as he’s gotten Gary Matthews Jr out of the everyday lineup; he’s also hitting pretty well.
Geoff Jenkins, OF: A left-handed hitter with pop (an average of 21 homers during a 10-year career) can be viewed as a finishing piece in a lot of places. Jenkins didn’t like giving up playing time in Milwaukee, so some teams might shy away. Suitors: Tigers, Royals and Red Sox.
Jenkins is what he is at this point; a platoon player with veteran experience. He’s done exactly what the Phillies expected. He’s a good signing at this point.
Andruw Jones, CF: A year late, a few million bucks short? Jones could’ve broken the free-agent bank in either of the past two years, but he hits the market after a 40-point drop in average, 15 fewer homers and 35 fewer RBIs. Suitors: Dodgers, Astros and Rangers.
Bust – and I’m frankly surprised by this one. Last year was the worst year of Jones’s career, but he’s following it up with more of the same. He’s been bench for 2 young outfielders. It’s not Juan Pierre bad, but it’s close.
Scott Linebrink, RHP: See “Hawkins.” Also, it’s only been a couple of years since Linebrink was considered absolutely untouchable by the Padres. The rise in his homer yield is alarming (21 in the past two seasons after four in 2005), but he still could be the man for teams looking for someone unflappable to throw strikes in the seventh and eighth innings. Suitors: Astros, Phillies and Mets.
The White Sox were criticized for giving Linebrink a multi-year deal, but it’s been a really good signing. He’s back to his SD form. That could change by the end of the contract.
Paul Lo Duca, C: He can chafe people, but he’s a terrific situational hitter and a trusty caddy for pitchers. Although the Mets are keeping him on the radar, Lo Duca may not like the perception that he’s their third option. Suitors: Rockies, Orioles, Pirates and Mets.
Bust – his time in Washington had been bad; he was injured most of the time and couldn’t hit when he was in the line up. He was waived and signed by the Marlins. While his second stint with the Fish has gone well, it’s still been a pretty bad season.
Mike Lowell, 3B: As great of a 2007 as he had on the field, leading in RBIs a lineup that included a couple of guys named David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, Lowell is even more valuable in the clubhouse. Contract length may still lure him out of Boston. Suitors: Yankees, White Sox, Phillies and Red Sox.
Boston retained their third baseman, and he’s had a quiet season. It hasn’t been bad, but it’s not like 2007 (closer to 2006, which was an OK season). We’ll have to wait on this one for the final decision.
Kazuo Matsui, 2B: Matsui finally adjusted to big league pitching (.288), and he’s always been an underrated runner (87 percent career stolen-base percentage). Suitors: Astros, White Sox and Phillies.
The jury is still out. Matsui is putting up decent numbers, but has also missed a couple good chunks of the season. He’s never been great, so I didn’t understand the signing at the time. I still can’t say I do.
Jorge Posada, C: After a career year (.338, 20 homers and 90 RBIs) at 36, Posada figured he was worth a four-year deal. The Yankees came up with that late on Monday — along with $52 million.
I’m leaning towards bust on this one, but I guess it depends on next year. Posada has been done for a while this season, and will probably be limited as a catcher next year (if healthy).
Aaron Rowand, CF: Rowand showed what kind of season he can have when not running into walls (.309 average, 89 RBIs — 20 more than his previous high — and first Gold Glove). Suitors: White Sox, Astros, Padres, Dodgers and Phillies.
Again, this could be a bust just for the fact that Rowand is stuck in a rebuilding situation during the prime of his career. He’s got decent numbers, but is wasted on this team.
Mariano Rivera, RHP: The man with the devastating cutter was on the receiving end of an unkind cut himself when the Yankees declined to talk extension prior to the season. Most people can’t conceive of Rivera actually suiting up with anyone else — but he’s still out there. Suitors: Yankees, Cubs, Mets and Giants.
Rivera has been dominant again, so this is a good signing. Even at an older age, Rivera is getting hitters out and pulling in a good amount of saves. He’ll probably continue this for a few more seasons (at least through the end of the deal).
Carlos Silva, RHP: Teams don’t look at Silva’s 13-14 record — they look at the fact that it came on the same team whose weaknesses also chained Santana to a 15-13 mark. The 28-year-old righty is a contact pitcher who went 47-45 after joining the Twins’ rotation in 2004. Suitors: Mets and Twins.
Bust – Silva has been horrible in Seattle, as has most of his teammates. He led the pack of mediocre pitchers getting big deals in the off-season. Unfortunately, Seattle will be stuck with him.
Yorvit Torrealba, C: A defensive specialist with an occasional bat, Torrealba got a lot of credit for nurturing the Colorado staff into that fantastic second-half showing. A surprising number of teams are targeting him ahead of some of the bigger catching names on the market. Suitors: Mets, Rockies and Marlins.
He stuck with Colorado, although he’s probably wishing he didn’t. Like they said, he’s nothing special with the bat; Chris Iannetta is finally hitting to potential, so Torrealba was pushed to the bench. He’s good insurance, so I wouldn’t call this a bad signing.
Randy Wolf, LHP : The southpaw was having a fine season (9-5, 4.33 ERA) before shoulder inflammation shelved Wolf for the second half. With few left-handed starters in the pool, he’ll be a good risk for some team. Suitors: Dodgers and D-backs.
I’d say he was a good signing for the Padres – some decent innings from a guy they flipped for a good bullpen piece. It was obvious a month into the season that the Padres were going nowhere. Wolf’s had a fine season and should see a nice contract this off-season.
Score Card
Of the 25 players, I see 6 that are good signs, 9 ok ones, 9 bad signings, and one no signing. That could change as these contract get older (see Lowell).
