This year, I’m doing things a little different – I’m using Sabremetric stats to pick the award winners. My formula takes Value Above Replacement Player, Win Shares, Revised Zone Rating, and Win Probablity Added. For pitchers, I switched RZR for Pitching Runs Created. For rookies, I only used VORP – it’s easier to compare hitters and pitchers (for the record, a pitcher must have an increadible season to be up for the MVP; also, I’m not a fan of closers winning the Cy Young – how can a closer win an award for top pitcher when they only pitch if their team is winning by 1-3 runs). The Manager and Executive of the Year were my gut choices – no statistics involved.
The definition of each (VORP courtesy of Baseball Prospectus; other definitions courtesy of The Hardball Times):
– Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player’s defense.
– Win Shares. Invented by Bill James. Win Shares is a very complicated statistic that takes all the contributions a player makes toward his team’s wins and distills them into a single number that represents the number of wins contributed to the team, times three.
– Revised Zone Rating is the proportion of balls hit into a fielder’s zone that he successfully converted into an out. Zone Rating was invented by John Dewan when he was CEO of Stats Inc. John is now the owner of Baseball Info Solutions, where he has revised the original Zone Rating calculation so that it now lists balls handled out of the zone (OOZ) separately (and doesn’t include them in the ZR calculation) and doesn’t give players extra credit for double plays (Stats had already made that change). We believe both changes improve Zone Ratings substantially.
– Win Probability Added. A system in which each player is given credit toward helping his team win, based on play-by-play data and the impact each specific play has on the team’s probability of winning.
– A new stat, created by our own David Gassko. The notion behind Pitching Runs Created is that a run saved is worth more than a run scored, and PRC puts runs saved on the same scale as runs scored.
NL MVP – Lance Berkman
VORP 72.9, WS 35, RZR .835 WPA 6.69
It really kills me not giving this to Albert Pujols, but Lance’s season was slightly better. Lance had 4 wins more in WS and had a higher WPA by .860. Berkman was like Pujols in the fact that they both had 1 legit player to help them (Carlos Lee and Ryan Ludwick); Ludwick was more help to Pujols than Lee, who missed the last month, was.
2. Albert Pujols
3. Hanley Ramirez
4. Carlos Beltran
5. Matt Holliday
6. David Wright
7. Nate McLouth
8. Chipper Jones
9. Aramis Ramirez
10. Ryan Ludwick
NL Cy Young – Tim Lincecum
VORP 69.4, WS 23, PRC 135, WPA 4.73
Lincecum was lights out this year for a horrible Giants team. He’s in the top 10 of the leauge in Strikeouts, Wins, ERA, Quality Start %, and WHIP. He’s also top in the NL for the Sabremetric stats above.
2. Johan Santana
3. Brandon Webb
4. Cole Hamels
5. Ryan Dempster
6. Ben Sheets
7. Dan Haren
8. Jake Peavy
9. Chad Billingsley
10. Edison Volquez
NL Rookie of the Year – Geovany Soto
VORP 39.4
Soto is a solid choice to win: he’s on a contender, plays a premium position, and had more of an impact on games than anyone else. He does well hitting and calling games.
2. Jair Jurrjens
3. Hiroki Kuroda
4. Jorge Campillo
5. Joey Votto
NL Manager of the Year – Jerry Manuel
He came in mid-season and turned the Mets around into contenders. Sure, he wasn’t their the full year, but he got his players motiviated.
2. Tony LaRussa
3. Charlie Manuel
NL Executive of the Year – Jim Hendry
Hendry made all the right moves: bringing in Fukudome, Edmonds, Harden, and Gaudin while not grabbing a veteran catcher to challenge Soto.
2. Doug Melvin
