Randy Couture vs Brock Lesnar:
Reports from those on the scene indicate that Randy had his left arm in a sling less than two weeks ago, and that he doesn’t look to be at full strength at the moment. That has me nervous, but I still think that Randy’s going to win, and here’s why:
Randy will not panic, because Randy does not panic. Randy will not turtle, for similar reasons. Randy will remain calm, and continue to think clearly and follow his game plan regardless of how powerfully he is taken down or how hard he is hit.
Lesnar is naturally gifted, and he is an NCAA champion. I understand that, but: He isn’t a well-rounded MMA fighter. He isn’t an experienced MMA fighter. He is overconfident. (Just listen to – or read – his comments about Fedor. Just watch the manner in which he tastelessly mocked Herring after failing to put him away). He will rush in blindly.
Put them together:
The gifted but overconfident MMA tyro who will rush in blindly. The cagey veteran fighter who has seen and experienced it all, who will not panic and will not turtle, but will calmly and assuredly apply his well-thought-out gameplan. The NCAA champion who is most likely counting on being able to overwhelm his opponent vs. The Olympic Alternate who will not be overwhelmed.
The young man with tremendous natural tools who has not yet needed to develop a full arsenal of technical tools. The older man who knows how to find holes in his enemies armour, and who certainly has the technique needed to exploit any available weakness.
Couture, R4, KO
Kenny Florian vs Joe Stevenson
Florian could cut Joe Daddy up with an elbow, or he could catch him in a choke. If Stevenson can maintain control of Kenny on the ground, he could pound him out for a TKO or decision victory. It really could go either way, but…
Florian, R3, Sub
Dustin Hazlett vs. Tamdan McCrory:
Tamdan “The Barn Cat” McCrory has a GREAT nickname. He is very tall for his weight and therefore unusually rangy. Reportedly, he was overpowered quite convincingly by Pete Spratt on the undercard of UFC Fight Night 10, but managed to pull off a slick triangle submission for the win. He beat Luke Cummo at UFC 87 to take the unofficial title of “World’s Toughest Geek.” He’ll defend that title against Dustin “McLovin'” Hazlett, who pulled off a tremendously sweet whizzer-to-armbar transition against Josh Burkman at the TUF 7 finale. I like Hazlett in this one, but hope to see yet another slick submission either way.
Hazlett, Sub, R2
Gabriel Gonzaga vs Josh Hendricks
You never know what to expect from a UFC newcomer, and Gonzaga is totally inconsistant. Still, every time I hear Gonzaga’s name I get a frightening vision of Mirko Cro Cop’s leg twisting grotesquely beneath his unconscious body.
Gonzaga, R1, KO
Demian Maia vs Nate Quarry
“Rock” Quarry is a solid guy, a good striker, and a fairly well-rounded MMA fighter. Maia is one of the best BJJ guys on the planet. Obviously, Quarry has a puncher’s chance, but if Maia catches him it’ll all be over.
Maia, R3, Sub.
