UFC HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
Randy Couture (Champion) vs. Brock Lesnar
When I first began hearing rumors of this fight being talked about back in early September, the idea was that Zuffa would produce a 3-episode countdown series akin to the 24/7 shows HBO produces for boxing. They would be done in real-time, with each fighter able to respond to the show from the previous week. Somewhere along the way, the idea was dropped, and the buildup for the fight became no different than any other “big feel” main event.
The fight sells itself, though, regardless of how high the promotional machine behind it is cranked, and the mainstream media hype in the days leading up to the fight has been off the charts. While I don’t think this show will hit the 1.2 million buys that Dana White claims, I do think it will be close to 1 million, and that must be considered a huge feat given the state of the current economy.
On one side, you’ve got the athletic freak, a man so driven to compete that he left his million-dollar job in pro wrestling for a shot at the National Football League and became the last person cut in camp despite not playing football at any level since high school. Brock Lesnar is one of the most gifted athletes in all of mixed martial arts, a fighter who, given two more serious years of progression at the rate he’s going, will be very difficult for any heavyweight fighter on the planet to defeat.
In the other corner, you’ve got the man who built his legend by toppling giants and overcoming the odds. He’s the closest thing to a folk hero that mixed martial arts has, and even though some of that reputation was tarnished by his year-long money standoff with Zuffa, the fact remains that The Natural is still one of the most popular and beloved fighters in the world. Ten times he’s gone into a fight as an underdog (as he will in this one), and nine times he’s overcome the odds.
This fight is one of the most hotly debated bouts in history, and for good reason.
Lesnar has unprecedented strength and speed for a heavyweight. He’s very likely the best pure wrestler in the division. He hits incredibly hard, as evidenced by his ground and pound stoppage of Min Soo Kim and the fact that he dropped Frank Mir twice with jabs and sent Heath Herring flying backwards with a punch early in their August fight. We’ve yet to see him in an extended standup war with an opponent, but we have seen him exhibit pure punching power.
On the other side of the cage, you have one of the smartest, if not the absolute smartest fighters in the game. Randy Couture is old, but he’s been able to overcome the age factor by putting together brilliant game plans and then executing them to perfection. He’s a world class wrestler who loves to clinch against the cage and dirty box his opponent into exhaustion.
I’ve been going back and forth on this fight for two months, but here’s what I’ve come up with: nearly every single one of Couture’s strengths are negated by Lesnar’s size, athleticism, speed and strength. Couture loves to clinch opponents into the cage and utilize dirty boxing to bloody them up, but I just cannot see Couture holding Lesnar down or against the cage for any length of time. Couture has fought men much bigger than he before, but Lesnar is a different animal altogether, and he’s far stronger than anyone Couture has ever faced.
I can, however, see Lesnar holding Couture down and out-wrestling him quite easily, which is why I think this fight will ultimately go to a decision, with Lesnar winning all five rounds in a dominant manner akin to his victory over Heath Herring. It may not be the most exciting avenue of victory, but a win over the champion is a win over the champion, and Lesnar’s only goal right now is to win the UFC Heavyweight championship. I think he will.
PREDICTION: Brock Lesnar by decision, 50-44
KENNY FLORIAN VS. JOE STEVENSON
Kenny Florian has turned himself into one of the best lightweights in the world over the past two years. He’s won five consecutive fights, with his last win coming over uber-prospect Roger Huerta at UFC 87 in August. Florian has become an excellent technical striker with devastating leg kicks, and his ground work with those razor-sharp elbows is nearly legendary. Stevenson bleeds easily (as witnessed in his bloodbath with BJ Penn), and I think Florian will likely open him up in this bout in route to a 2nd round TKO win.
Prediction: Kenny Florian via TKO, 2nd round
GABRIEL GONZAGA VS. JOSH HENDRICKS
Hendricks, a training partner of Randy Couture, is making his UFC debut in this fight and hasn’t fought in almost a year. Just like the main event, his biggest skill (grappling) is negated by the skill of his opponent; Hendricks likely won’t want to take Gonzaga to the mat, because there’s a very good chance he’ll get submitted quickly if he does so.
Gonzaga rebounded in his last fight against Justin McCully after suffering two losses in a row, but losses can typically be excused when they come against Randy Couture and pre-Stay Puff Fabricio Werdum. Gonzaga is still one of the most dangerous fighters in the UFC heavyweight division, and he’ll take care of Hendricks early in this one.
Prediction: Gabriel Gonzaga via TKO, Round 1
DEMIAN MAIA VS. NATE QUARRY
Maia is one of the best grapplers in the UFC, but he has limited striking. It hasn’t harmed him thus far and he brings an undefeated record into the octagon for this fight. Quarry’s last fight was with the infamous Kalib Starnes, a fight where Starnes literally spent fifteen minutes running away from Quarry’s attempts to engage.
Maia won’t have to rely on his striking against Quarry, because this fight will be over shortly after it hits the ground. Maia still has a long way to go before he’s a complete MMA fighter, but his jiu-jitsu will allow him to get past Quarry without much fuss.
Prediction: Maia by submission, round 2
DUSTIN HAZELETT VS. TAMDAN MCCRORY
This fight was moved to the main card after Amir Sadollah was forced to withdraw from his scheduled fight with Nick Catone.
Dustin Hazelett is also known as “that guy who looks like Jon Fitch.” His last two fights saw him losing to Josh Koscheck and then beating Josh Burkman in a performance at the Ultimate Fighter 7 Finale that won him both Submission of the Night and Fight of the Night. He’ll likely do the same thing here; look for Hazelett to get close early, take the fight to the ground, and then work submission after submission until he actually secures one.
Prediction: Dustin Hazelett by submission, 1st round
